FOMC Preview (Good, Bad, and Ugly Scenarios)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- FOMC Preview – What’s Expected, Hawkish-If, Dovish-If Scenarios
- December Durable Goods Orders Takeaways (Goldilocks)
- NVDA Chart – An Ominous Technical Setup
Stock futures are slightly higher ahead of today’s Fed decision as global bond markets remain steady on the back of some favorable inflation metrics overnight.
Economically, Australian CPI fell from 2.8% to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.6% in Q4’24 and Eurozone M3 Money Supply rose 3.5% Y/Y vs. (E) 4.0%, both of which helped ease inflation fears.
There are no economic reports today leaving market focus on the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and Powell’s Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET). As today’s Fed preview details, a hawkish outcome that sends yields higher could cause a painful selloff in equities.
Today is also the first day of big tech earnings with TSLA ($0.75), META ($6.90), MSFT ($3.12), and IBM ($3.74) all due to report quarterly results after the close. Expectations are already optimistic for 2025 so any disappointment could pressure stocks in after-hours trading regardless of the initial reaction to the Fed announcement.
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