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Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High? (And Is It Sustainable?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High?  (And Is It Sustainable?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Big, Beautiful Bill Pass and Further Support Growth?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The Big Three Reports This Week:  Jobs Report (Thurs), ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs

Futures are modestly higher on further progress on passing the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (which would extend and increase ta cuts, further supporting economic growth).

The “Big Beautiful Bill” passed a key procedural vote over the weekend and passage out of the Senate is expected later today (and it could be law by the end of the week).

Economically, the June Chinese manufacturing and service PMIs were slightly better than expected.

Today there is one economic report (Chicago PMI (E: 42.7)) and two Fed speakers, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on Washington and if passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill becomes even more likely (meaning it passes the Senate and there’s no major pushback from House members) that should further add to the upward momentum in the market.

This market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination

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This market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination: Tom Essaye Quoted in The Wall Street Journal

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled

“As long as things can stay stable, then this market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, a market analysis firm.

Market breadth has improved as investors who missed out on tech stocks’ historic rebound search for new opportunities in different industries, Essaye said. He called it the “FOMO trade,” referencing the acronym for “fear of missing out.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wall Street Journal published on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The recent advance toward record territory is “broad-based”

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The recent advance toward record territory is “broad-based”: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said that the new highs in the NYSE A/D line showed that the recent advance toward record territory is “broad-based,” and it should be considered “both historically healthy and likely sustainable.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Morningstar on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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If inflation surprises to the upside then that will push yields higher and pressure stocks

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If inflation surprises to the upside then that will push yields higher and pressure stocks: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

EMEA Morning Briefing: Investors Await Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge

Focus is on the U.S. PCE inflation report – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, due later today. “[Markets] are counting on inflation to stay subdued to keep expectations for two rates cuts in 2025 intact,” said Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research. “If inflation surprises to the upside – which is unlikely given CPI and PPI were light – then that will push yields higher and pressure stocks.”

Also, click here to view the full Dow Jones article published in Morningstar on June 27th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Mixed Messages from Market Breadth

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Mixed Messages from Market Breadth

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum and continued optimism on trade/tariffs.

The U.S. and China officially signed the recently negotiated trade agreement and Commerce Secretary Lutnick teased 10 more trade deals that could be announced soon.

Economically, Euro Zone Economic Sentiment was slightly weaker than expected (94.5 vs. (E) 95.0).

Today focus will turn to inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Tame inflation readings have underwritten this slightly dovish shift in rate cut expectations, so this number needs to be in-line or weaker than expected to keep those more dovish expectations intact (and support this week’s rally).

In addition to the data, there are two Fed speakers, Williams (7:30 a.m. ET) and Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

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Measures of investors’ mood have shown a good deal of reserve

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Measures of investors’ mood have shown a good deal of reserve: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Investors Are Still Wary of the Stock Rally. Five Things That Could Prove Them Right.

That said, they may not be jumping in with both feet. as Sevens Report President Tom Essaye notes, measures of investors’ mood have shown a good deal of reserve.

Consider that the most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which asks individual investors if they’re bullish or bearish, shows 33.2% bulls, a slight decline from last month, and well below the historical average for bulls of 37.5%. Similarly, the Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment Index—like the AAII survey, but for financial advisors—has a Bulls/Bears spread of 10.2%, a still cautious reading.

Likewise, the widely followed CNN Fear/Greed Indicator, which incorporates seven different momentum and sentiment indicators, currently sits at 60%, a level that is “it’s barely in the “Greed” range and…has declined over the past few weeks,” Essaye notes.

Still, that’s actually a good sign, he notes, that the market isn’t overly frothy. It would be much more concerning if every reading were overwhelmingly bullish. As it is the readings don’t “imply the looming possibility of a short squeeze or air pocket.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 26th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor Sentiment Update: Not As Bullish as You Might Think

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Investor Sentiment Update:  Not As Bullish as You Might Think

Futures are modestly higher thanks to a dovish WSJ article on the Fed overnight.

The WSJ reported President Trump will employ a “Shadow Fed” strategy and name Powell’s replacement in the coming months.  That replacement is expected to be more dovish than Powell and that’s weighing on the dollar and boosting futures.

Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports to watch include (in order of importance):  Jobless Claims (E: 245K), Durable Goods (E: 0.1%) and Final Q1 GDP (E: -0.2%).  Given this week’s slight dovish drift in the Fed, markets will want to see stable data further the idea of rate cuts in the next two to three months.

Speaking of the Fed, there are several speakers today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (1:15 p.m. ET).  Markets will be looking to see if any of them also float the idea of a July rate cut.  If so, it won’t make a July cut more likely, but it will further solidify expectations for a September cut (which will be a mild tailwind on stocks).

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (June Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist – June Update
  • Powell Testimony Takeaways
  • Chart – Consumer Confidence Tumbles (Again)

Futures are flat as investors digest reports that the U.S. strikes on Iran nuclear facilities resulted in limited damage while focus remains on Powell’s semi-annual testimony.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and financial news wires were mostly quiet since yesterday’s close.

Today, there is one economic report to watch with New Home Sales (E: 694K) due out just after the bell. Housing data has been trending weaker but that has bolstered dovish money flows so a “hot” print could spark a hawkish reaction and weigh on stocks.

Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony continues today at 10:00 a.m. ET which will be a primary focus for markets as investors look for clues as to when the FOMC will resume cutting interest rates.

Moving into the afternoon, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Demand has been strong in recent weeks so a weak outcome that sends rates higher is a hawkish risk to watch for that would weigh on risk assets.

Finally, there are a few more late-season earnings reports to watch including PAYX ($1.18), GIS ($0.71), MU ($1.61), and JEF ($0.43).

 

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What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Make Markets Care About the Israel-Iran Conflict?
  • June Flash PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are tracking global shares higher after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, greatly reducing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Business Expectations component of the German Ifo Survey rose to 90.7 vs. (E) 89.8 in June which is adding to optimism that a recession will be avoided in most developed nations in 2025.

Looking into today’s session, there are multiple economic reports due to be released including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.0%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 99.0), and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are also multiple Fed speakers on the calendar to watch with Hammack (9:15 & 10:15 a.m. ET), Powell (10:00 a.m. ET), Williams (12:30 p.m. ET),  and Collins (2:05 p.m. ET) all due to deliver remarks today.

Finally, some noteworthy earnings releases to keep an eye on include CCL ($0.24), SNX ($2.56), FDX ($5.93), and BB ($0.00).

Bottom line, the two most important catalysts to watch today will be the Consumer Confidence release with investors looking for a healthy/better than expected headline and easing inflation expectations, and Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill as investors gauge the prospects for a July rate cut (the more dovish expectations are, the better for stocks).