A New Headwind on Stocks
A new headwind on stocks (it’s potentially a big one), it’s not all bad – a legitimate positive scenario for Q1 ‘19, weekly market preview, weekly economic cheat sheet and more.
futures
Political Risks to this Market
Political risks to this market, futures are sharply lower (about 1%), Chinese Retail Sales (8.1% vs. (E) 9.0%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 5.9%) both badly missed estimates, geopolitically it was a quiet night although Chinese officials confirmed the reduction of auto tariffs to 15% from 40% (this was already pledged but it is good to see it will be enacted on Jan 1.) and more.
Economic Breaker Panel December Update
Economic Breaker Panel December update (more signs of weakness), EIA Analysis – can the bounce in oil hold?, Futures are slightly higher following a very quiet night of news, as markets digest recent volatility, economic data was sparse as German CPI was the only notable number and it met expectations (2.3% yoy), today the highlight event is the ECB Meeting (E: No Change to Rates) but other than a potentially dovish tone from Draghi at the press conference, this shouldn’t impact markets too much. and more.
Sector Value and Performance
Sector valuations and performance since the breakdown, stock futures are trading higher again this morning thanks to ongoing improvement in US-China trade war sentiment, economic data overnight was mixed, looking into today’s Wall Street session, focus will be on U.S. inflation data early with CPI due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.0%), and more.
Dow Theory Just Turned Bearish
Dow Theory: first bearish signal since July 2015, futures are enjoying a bounce this morning, there is only one economic report: PPI (E: 0.0%) however inflation has been an important topic recently and a material “miss” or “beat” could move markets and more.
Why Markets Dropped and How We Find Stability
Why stocks dropped (new reason) and how markets stabilize, weekly market preview, weekly economic cheat sheet (CPI Wed. and lots of data Friday), futures and global markets are modestly lower due to momentum from Friday’s sell off and more.
Why Markets Are Dropping Again
Why markets are dropping again (And Why We Don’t Think It’s a Bearish Gamechanger), what needs to happen in the short term for markets to stabilize, jobs report preview, futures are sharply lower as the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada has added to uncertainty on U.S./China trade, while oil is down sharply due to OPEC disappointment and more.
OPEC’s Catch-22
OPEC’s Catch-22 Explained, ISM Manufacturing PMI Analysis, futures are modestly lower as the Trump-Xi “trade truce” continues to be digested this morning while the yield curve flattened further overnight, underscoring growth concerns, the major underlying story this morning is the yield curve as the 2’s-10s spread compressed to new lows overnight (13bp) and the 2’s-5’s actually inverted. and more.
Is Flat the New Inverted?
Is flat the new inverted? futures are trading slightly lower this morning, after the close yesterday, the WSJ ran an interview with Trump where he said he was ready to move forward with increasing tariff rates, with Powell’s speech later this week still a major focus of the market, the Fed chatter will be watched closely while the market will remain very sensitive to any further rhetoric on the trade front (the other big event being the G20) after Trump’s comments yesterday afternoon. and more.
Technical Market Update
Technical market update, two events to decide the year, weekly market preview, weekly economic cheat sheet (all about inflation this week), futures are surging and global markets are up 1%, there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers today, so focus will remain on the tech sector and more.