Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

Futures are higher as lower oil prices and retreating bond yields support stocks ahead of today’s CPI report.

Geopolitically, reports that Gulf states may meet with Iranian officials next week are easing concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and weighing on oil prices.

Economically, UK monthly GDP rose 0.4% vs. (E) 0.0% in July.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.4% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.2).

Finally, only one notable earnings report is due today, KR ($1.05), so markets will focus primarily on economic data and geopolitics.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can AI Continue to Support This Market?
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

Futures are mixed as investors monitor rising oil prices and ongoing Middle East tensions ahead of key inflation data.

Geopolitically, Iran-backed Houthis reported airstrikes in Yemen, adding to concerns about a broader Middle East conflict.

Economically, German Final CPI met estimates at 0.2% m/m in August.

Today, focus will be on PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y) ahead of Friday’s CPI report. A cooler PPI print would be welcomed by stocks, while a hot print could push yields and oil higher. Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.97M) are also due today.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Notable earnings include ORCL ($1.40), ADBE ($4.86), and M ($0.37).

 

Alpha Webinar: When Does Rising Oil Become a Problem?

Oil prices are moving markets again, but the real question isn’t simply whether crude goes higher—it’s when rising oil becomes a meaningful problem for inflation, bond yields and stocks.

That’s the focus of today’s Sevens Report Alpha webinar, live at 1:30 p.m. ET.

We’ll examine the Strait of Hormuz and actual oil flows, alternative routes for Persian Gulf supply, why diesel markets matter, and, importantly, the oil-price levels that could signal conditions are becoming materially worse—or beginning to improve.

The goal isn’t to predict the next move in crude. It’s to give you a practical framework for understanding when oil is a manageable market risk and when it becomes a sustained headwind for stocks and bonds.

Click here to learn more and join today’s Alpha webinar.

September MMT: Headwinds Present but Earning Growth a Major Positive

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Market Multiple Table (MMT): Headwinds Present but Earnings Growth a Major Positive

Futures are modestly lower as the U.S. and Iran again exchanged reciprocal strikes overnight, sending oil prices higher.

Brent crude rose above $100/bbl for the first time since May after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes on oil tankers and naval vessels, further diminishing any near term hopes for ceasefire progress.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which beat expectations (0.8% y/y vs. (E) 0.4% y/y).

Today there are no notable economic reports (the key reports this week come Thursday/Friday via PPI/CPI) so focus will stay on geopolitics and the story remains the same:  Any hint of the U.S. or Iran seeking a ceasefire will push oil lower and help stocks rebound, while more reciprocal strikes will only further boost oil prices and pressure stocks.

Beyond oil, we need to watch treasury yields.  So far this week they haven’t rallied despite higher oil prices (the looming CPI is likely keeping them stable) but if that changes and yields start to rise on higher oil prices, the downward pressure on stocks will increase.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In NDTV On September 1st, 2026

/in , /by

Wall Street Highlights: S&P 500 Slips As Oil Spike, Rising Fed Rate Bets Pressure Stocks

“Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speak so focus will remain on geopolitics,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of ‘The Sevens Report’ newsletter. “Markets still strongly assume there won’t be any material military escalation between Iran and the US, but if the headlines turn negative on that front, it’ll introduce a new headwind on the market.” 

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on September 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Recipe for a Rally (Three Ingredients)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Recipe for a Rally (Three Ingredients)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Yields Remain Key (Geopolitics and Inflation in Focus)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI (Friday) is the Key Report This Week

Futures are modestly lower on higher oil prices as geopolitical risks rose over the long weekend.

Oil prices hit multi-month highs and that’s directly weighing on global stocks as Iran launched an unsuccessful attack on a U.S. Naval vessel and the U.S. sunk three Iranian tankers in response, keeping tensions elevated and the prospect of a near term ceasefire low.

In Russia, there was no progress on a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire despite U.S./Russian meetings over the weekend.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any major Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, oil and Treasury yields.  As has been the case for the past few weeks, any headlines that push oil and yields lower will help stocks rally (and if oil and yields keep rising, stocks will continue their decline).

 

A Goldilocks Report Will Help Reduce Rate Hike Concerns – Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Stocks Climb as Fed-Hike Wagers Ease on Waller: Markets Wrap

“A Goldilocks report will help reduce rate hike concerns, which should lower yields,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Conversely, a ‘too hot’ report will only further reinforce fears of more rate hikes.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Swissinfo.ch published on September 3rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tit-For-Tat strikes In The Middle East Makes A Ceasefire More Remote

/in , /by

In a Quagmire Scenario, Here’s How and What to Trade

Reverting back to potential tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East makes a ceasefire more remote. That means the global economy may have to endure an extended period of elevated oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices that, over time, boost inflation, global bond yields, and potentially weigh on global growth, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

This matters to you for two specific reasons. First, higher yields are one of the biggest headwinds for stocks right now. Fears of a quagmire will boost commodity prices. That, in turn, will keep yields elevated, keep inflation elevated, and potentially pressure consumer spending and global growth.

Second, it can impact what outperforms in the markets. As we saw Friday, growth factors in the market face stiffer headwinds when yields rise sharply. Since most growth ETFs are tech-heavy, that means the S&P 500 Index could feel pressure. Advisors will again want to make sure they have balance across portfolios and not be too growth/tech/AI heavy.

Bottom line: The conflicts are again in the headlines and impacting markets. It’s critical we understand how and why, so we can look past scary/sensational headlines and focus on the legitimate risks to markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on September 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Fintech Spotlight: What is Tokenization

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Fintech Spotlight: What is Tokenization (And Is It a Growth Opportunity?)

Futures are mixed as bond yields retreat ahead of today’s August jobs report.

There were no major geopolitical or macro developments overnight.

Economic data was mixed as EU retail sales fell 0.6% m/m vs. (E) 0.3%, while German Factory Orders rose 2.5% m/m vs. (E) 0.3%.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and estimates are as follows: 55K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate and 3.0% Wage Growth. A Goldilocks report would be supportive for stocks and help keep bond yields contained.

There are no Fed speakers or notable earnings reports scheduled today, leaving the jobs report and resulting Treasury market reaction as the primary focus for stocks.

 

Focus Will Remain Primarily On Geopolitics | Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

/in , /by

Dow Futures Bounce Back as Tech Stocks Struggle for Direction

“Today focus will remain primarily on geopolitics and any positive headlines about ceasefire progress should pressure oil and yields and help stocks lift,” Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report says ahead of the market open.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview: “Too Hot” Definitely Worse Than “Too Cold”

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: “Too Hot” Definitely Worse Than “Too Cold”

Futures are mixed as higher oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities pressure stocks.

Geopolitically, Iran launched missile and drone strikes against U.S. bases in Kuwait as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated.

Economically, EU PPI rose 1.6% vs. (E) 1.2% m/m, adding to inflation concerns.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and the ISM Services Index (E: 54.1). An in-line claims print and stable services activity should help ease concerns about the economy while keeping pressure off Treasury yields.

Finally, Waller (8:30 a.m. ET) and Hammack (3:00 p.m. ET) are scheduled to speak today while earnings include CIEN ($1.46), ZS ($0.06), IOT ($0.02), and LULU ($1.79).

 

Alpha Report: Is It Time to Rethink Long-Term Bonds?

Long-term bonds have become one of the most disliked areas of the market—and it’s not hard to understand why. Persistent inflation, massive Treasury issuance, large fiscal deficits and higher oil prices have all reinforced the case for staying short duration.

But when virtually everyone agrees on an investment thesis, it’s worth asking what could make that consensus wrong.

That’s exactly what we examined in Tuesday’s Sevens Report Alpha.

Long-term yields remain near two-decade highs, sentiment is deeply negative, and several macro developments could begin easing the pressures that have punished the long end of the Treasury market. Importantly, investors don’t need every concern to disappear for the risk/reward to improve.

Could long-term bonds be emerging as one of today’s better contrarian opportunities? (Click here to find out.)