Are Rising Rates Really Bad For Stock Returns?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Rising Rates Really Bad For Stock Returns?

Futures are higher as a sharp drop in oil prices and lower Treasury yields are supporting stocks ahead of today’s September jobs report.

Oil prices are falling as reports of potential strategic reserve releases in Europe ease supply concerns.

Economically, Eurozone HICP came in at 3.8% vs. (E) 3.7% y/y, while Core HICP met expectations at 2.5% y/y.

Today, focus will be on the September Employment Situation Report (E: 90K Job-Adds, 4.1% Unemployment Rate, 0.3% Wage Growth), with Factory Orders (E: 0.0%) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.6 million) also due. A Goldilocks jobs report should help support stocks.

Finally, Fed Governor Logan is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET, although the jobs report will remain the primary focus for markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: One Rate Hike or Two?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: One Rate Hike or Two?

Futures are higher to start Q4 as investors digest higher Treasury yields, Micron’s latest outlook, and upcoming economic data.

Geopolitically, oil prices are higher as there was little progress on U.S.-Iran talks while a Houthi attack targeted the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia.

Economically, China’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 while Services PMI came in at 51.6.

Today’s focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 200K), ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 54.8), and Construction Spending (E: 0.0%) as markets will be looking for solid but not too-strong data. The Treasury will also hold a 4- & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Finally, there is a slew of Fed speak today as Waller (10:00 a.m. ET), Jefferson (1:30 p.m. ET), Bowman (3:00 p.m. ET), Williams & Cook 3:30 p.m. ET), Logan (6:45 p.m. ET) are scheduled to deliver comments. Earnings include ACN ($3.19), NKE ($0.45), and MKC ($0.75).

 

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The third quarter is over, and clients expect to hear from you about what happened, what it means and what matters next. But writing a good quarterly letter takes a lot of work—even for me, and I write about markets every day.

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When Do High Yields Become a Bearish Gamechanger? Indicator to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When Do High Yields Become a Bearish Gamechanger?  Indicator to Watch.

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as investor focus turns towards economic data.

Geopolitically, U.S./Iran negotiations yielded no material progress although increased oil exports from the region are keeping the rise in oil modest (up 1% overnight).

Economically, Chinese September PMIs met expectations.

The important economic data for this week really begins today and continues through Friday and the key for markets is Goldilocks data that implies solid growth but doesn’t raise rate hike expectations.

Today, important reports to watch are (in order of importance): Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y), ADP Employment Report (E: 70K) and, to a lessor extend, Final Q2 GDP (E: 1.5%).

Regarding the Fed, the parade of speakers continues this week and the less hawkish they are, the better for stocks.  Speakers today include: Barkin, (1:30 p.m. ET), Cook (3:25 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (5:10 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (6:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings matter today with a key report from Micron (MU ($31.35) and the stronger the demand, the better.

 

Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (Monthly Update)
  • Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

Futures are little changed as markets digest more mixed headlines on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks.

Geopolitically, President Trump denied Monday’s “sanction relief for nuclear concessions” headlines, but negotiations appear on going in some form (which is positive).

Geopolitics will remain the primary market driver today and any positive headlines on a ceasefire should pressure oil and help stocks rebound.

Economically, reports today include the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 2.4%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 90.0) but they’re unlikely to move markets, barring a major surprise.

We do have a lot of Fed speakers today and of them, Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (3:00 p.m. ET) are the most important.  Other Fed speakers today include Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET), Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and Musalem (1:30 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if the tone from Fed speakers remains hawkish that will help support the dollar and yields.

Finally, there are two consumer-focused companies reporting today, CCL ($1.36) and KMX ($0.68) and the stronger the reports, the better.

 

How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields? (Hint: AI).
  • Weekly Market Preview: Geopolitics Still Dominate, Will Oil and Yields Sustainably Decline?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy and Important Week (Jobs Report Friday the Highlight)

Futures are moderately weaker as there was no diplomatic progress over the weekend between the U.S. and Iran and oil and Treasury yields are higher in response.

President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to return to the June ceasefire agreement and re-open the Strait of Hormuz, although there is some hope that negotiations between the two sides will continue this week.

Oil was up 4% overnight while the 10 year Treasury yield rose four basis points and those factors are pressuring futures.

Focus will remain on geopolitics and, as was the case last week, any hint of diplomatic progress should help Treasury yields and oil fall and stocks recover from these early losses (while a continued rise in yields and oil will further pressure markets).

Turning to actual data/events, there are no economic reports today but there are several Fed speakers including Bowman (8:15 a.m. ET), Cook (1:25 p.m. ET) and Barkin (1:30 p.m. ET).  If they reinforce last week’s hawkish tone from Fed speakers, look for that to put incremental upward pressure on the 10 year yield.

 

It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

U.S. futures are higher as Treasury yields pull back and a sharp drop in oil prices provides relief for investors.

Oil prices are falling after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased approach to ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, the BoJ Core CPI rose 1.8% y/y vs. (E) 1.5%, while German GfK Consumer Climate fell to -30.6 vs. (E) -27.1.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K), while markets will continue to watch Treasury yields and oil prices for signs of easing inflation pressure.

Finally, two Fed speakers are speaking today: Schmid (9:20 a.m. ET) and Hammack (2:00 p.m. ET).

 

Focus Will Stay On Geopolitics | Tom Essaye

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Wall Street Highlights: Nasdaq 100 Climbs To Its First Record Since June

“Focus will stay on geopolitics, and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on September 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?
  • Understanding Why a Diesel Export Ban Won’t Work

Futures are lower as rising Treasury yields continue to pressure stocks, with Nasdaq futures down over 1%.

Oil prices are higher as renewed Middle East tensions raise concerns about a broader conflict.

Economically, the German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in at 89.9 vs. (E) 89.1.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K). The Treasury will hold a 4- & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (8:50 a.m. ET), and Paulson (10:10 a.m. ET), while notable earnings include COST ($6.48), DRI ($2.06), SNX ($4.46), and BB ($0.03).

 

Q3 Quarterly Letter: How Are You Explaining This Quarter to Clients?

The Fed is raising rates again. The 10-year Treasury has crossed 5%. Oil is sitting around $100. War, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are back in focus, while questions about AI and market valuations haven’t gone anywhere.

There is a lot to explain, and writing a thoughtful quarterly client letter from scratch can take hours.

Our Q3 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter comes out next week. We do the research and writing and deliver it to you as an editable Word document. Add your branding, change our language, insert your own views and send it through compliance.

We do the heavy lifting. You make it yours.

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The Trend In Technology and Ai Stocks Appears Technically Strong

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Signals the AI Stock Rally Could Continue Into Year End

Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report highlighted opportunities within the Magnificent Seven, software, and chip maker names

“The trend in technology and Al stocks appears technically strong going into the fall,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 22nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on September 22nd

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Stock Futures Waver Near Flatline as Wall Street Craves Diplomacy

“Today focus will stay on geopolitics and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 22nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.