What Caused Yesterday’s Selloff? AI or Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused Yesterday’s Drop, AI or Yields?
  • Three Reasons Yields Are Rising Right Now

Futures are flat as traders digest this week’s pullback in tech stocks amid stubbornly elevated oil prices and subsequently buoyant bond yields.

Economically, U.K. Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% y/y while the EU’s Core CPI equivalent (Core HICP) was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in July, meeting estimates; neither release suggested inflation is beginning to slow materially which is keeping yields elevated today.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today, however the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market, and a pullback in yields would be welcomed by equities today, potentially setting up a relief rally in the broader market.

Later in the afternoon, the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released (2:00 p.m. ET) and traders will be looking for any fresh insight as to the Fed’s most likely policy rate path in H2’26; the more dovish/accommodating, the better for equities.

Finally, there are a handful of late-season earnings releases due to be released today including ADI ($3.33), TGT ($2.30), TJX ($1.18), LOW ($4.22), EL ($0.32), and BULL ($0.03). And as has been the case, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for the market.

 

Is There Finally Value in Software?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is There Finally Value in Software?
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways.

Futures are lower with semiconductor/tech stocks leading the declines on valuations concerns as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, pushing oil and bond yields higher (the 30-Yr Bond yield is above 5.30%).

Economically, U.K. Unemployment held steady at 4.9%, meeting expectations but the release did not materially impact markets with focus on oil, geopolitics, and global bond yields sitting at multi-decade highs.

Today, there is a fair bit of economic data to watch including Industrial Production (E: 0.3%), Housing Starts (1.345M), Pending Home Sales (E: 1.4%), and Import & Export Prices (E: 0.1% m/m, 0.0% m/m). The best case scenario for equities is healthy (but not “hot”) growth data and “cooler than feared” inflation data.

There are no Fed officials speaking today which will leave bond markets focused on 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (the stronger the demand the better).

Earnings season is winding down, however there are a handful of noteworthy companies reporting quarterly results today, including HD ($4.71), BIDU ($1.51), KEYS ($2.48), SQM ($2.03), and TOL ($2.90). As has been the case, the stronger the results/guidance, the better for stocks.

 

Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Consumer Holding Up and How Hawkish Is the Fed?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes (Wed) and First Look at August Data

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Chinese economic data was soft as Industrial Production (4.5% vs. (E) 5.0%), Retail Sales (0.6% vs. (E) 1.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-6.7% vs. (E) -6.1%) all missed estimates.

Geopolitically, there was no progress on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks but, positively, any military escalation still remains unlikely.

Today focus will be on the economy as we get the first look at August data via the Empire Manufacturing Index (10.60) and the best case for markets is for a Goldilocks number of solid growth (so at or slightly above expectations) and, almost as importantly, a continued decline in the price indices (which shows inflation pressures are continuing to recede in August).  The other notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 33) but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

Applied Materials (AMAT) posted strong earnings but, like CSCO, they weren’t as good as hoped for and the stocks is lower pre-market (down 6%) and that is a mild headwind on futures.

Economically, the only notable number was Q2 EU flash GDP which met expectations at 0.4% q/q.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2) and Five- Year Inflation Expectations: (E: 3.3%).  The “best” case for stocks is for solid (but not spectacular) retail sales and five-year inflation expectations that decline closer to 3.0%, as that will reinforce solid growth and continue this week’s trend of easing inflation pressure.

 

Tom Essaye On Why Cloud Capacity Is The Next Critical Bottleneck In AI Infrastructure

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Why Google and Amazon rank top among Cloud hyperscalers for AI

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye explains why cloud capacity is the next critical bottleneck in AI infrastructure and ranks Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) based on their cloud revenue opportunities.

So, I do like the hyperscalers, but I like the ones with the best cloud businesses. So really it’s not even so much that I love the hyperscalers, it’s that I love cloud right now because I think the cloud capacity is could be number uh number for first of all, the next bottleneck that has to be resolved in this AI day to build out after semiconductors and memory. And also it it provides an opportunity to generate revenue right now. So if I had to rank them in order, it would probably be Amazon, or excuse me, Google, Amazon and then Microsoft. The reason Microsoft is last is because I do think they have some risk on their office suite given, you know, some of the the AI software purge that we’re seeing. Uh but I think those three are attractive, mainly because of their cloud business, it’s providing revenue now.

Essaye is staying cautious about the Magnificent Seven names heading into earnings. 

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on August 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Market’s Just Waiting For The Light To Turn Green

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The Stock Market Is at a Stop Light. Wall Street Awaits ‘Green Light’ on Iran, Inflation.

“We really are at a little stoplight on the drive higher, and the market’s just waiting for the light to turn green on Hormuz and on CPI, and then I think the rally will resume,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

For the market, the on-again-off-again nature of supposed talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have become a “nuisance” for markets, Essaye says, though he thinks Wall Street sees an agreement as inevitable. In the meantime, WTI crude oil futures were up 1.3% to $83.20 a barrel.

“That’s not on the forefront of the market’s radar, but it should be,” Essaye says. “Because if we get a hot CPI tomorrow, they’re going to take a run toward 5%, probably by the end of the week. And that would be a new negative for markets.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Earnings Growth Is Really Acting As A Massive Support For The Market

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Tech Stocks Slide Again Ahead of Key Inflation Reports

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that Wall Street is viewing the mixed signals over the key energy shipping choke point as “a nuisance.”

“All the market cares about is transit through the Strait getting back to normal, and that is going to happen,” says Essaye. “This sort of mindless delay that we’re going through, and back and forth, is now just sort of an annoyance more than anything else.”

The attention will turn to inflation starting with the Wednesday release of the consumer price index for July, followed the respective update on wholesale prices on Thursday. Essaye doesn’t expect the data to spark a broader stock market swoon.

“The earnings growth is really sort of acting as a massive support for the market, so for that to be overcome, we have to have really significantly negative macro risks,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “And they’re just not there.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

Futures are slightly higher despite post earnings selling in AI linked tech stocks, as lower oil boosts futures.

CSCO earnings weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down 6% pre-market, although it’s not weighing on the rest of the market.

There was no discernable progress on U.S./Iran peace talks but oil dropped 1% overnight on falling fears of escalation.

Today focus will remain on inflation and the economy via PPI  (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.9% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 203K).  The lower PPI and the closer jobless claims are to 200k, the better for markets (it’d be a Goldilocks reading). We also have one Fed speaker today, Barkin (8:40 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, tech results continue and today’s key report is AMAT ($3.38).

 

August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • The SPX-VIX Ratio Has Entered Dangerous Territory

Futures are higher, led by tech after SMCI was the latest AI infrastructure name to post blowout quarterly earnings after the close yesterday (shares up 9%+ pre-market), rekindling AI industry optimism ahead of the July CPI release.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.8% y/y in July, unchanged from June, helping shore up hopes that inflation pressures have peaked this summer.

Today, the market’s primary focus will be on the July U.S. CPI data due out ahead of the open: (E) 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y, Core CPI (E) 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be more widely watched and has the potential to move markets (the stronger the demand the better, especially in the wake of the CPI release).

Finally, with earnings having a positive impact on the tape this morning quarterly results from NBIS ($-0.67), CSCO ($0.99), and COHR ($1.43) will all be closely monitored as AI optimism has begun to pickup again and buoy the broader equity markets this week. Any material disappointments have the potential to reverse the pre-market bid and send stocks lower as sentiment remains fragile right now.