Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Can a Run Hot Economy Turn into Stagflation?

Futures are modestly higher as President Trump downplayed the latest strikes on Iran.

President Trump called Thursday’s strikes on Iran a “love tap” and reiterated the ceasefire was still in place, easing markets concerns.

German Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-3.0% vs. (E) -2.5% y/y) but that’s not moving markets.

Focus today will be on the April jobs report and expectations are as follows:  63K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 3.8% Y/Y Wage Growth.  The best case for markets remains a Goldilocks number that combines a solid jobs number modestly above estimates and stable wage growth at or below estimates.

Geopolitically, the market continues to ignore headlines about limited U.S./Iran strikes and likely will continue to do so as long as the administration says the ceasefire is still in place.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers this evening including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee & Waller (7:30 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

Alpha Webinar: What Outperforms If Inflation Becomes a Problem (Again)?

Inflation is firming, yields are climbing, and the idea of rate hikes later this year is gaining traction. That combination caught markets off guard in 2022—and the result was a sharp repricing across stocks and bonds.

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Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s What’s Really Supporting The Rally

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The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Climb Back to Record Highs. Earnings Are in Focus.

“The two underpinnings of the rally are really earnings and economic growth, and the news continues to be good,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Essaye argues part of the risk for the market is that both strong earnings and economic growth are tied to the artificial intelligence buildout.

“That’s essentially acting like an economic stimulus program that’s boosting growth at the same time,” he says. “That’s fine—unless it stops. And then all of a sudden you’ve got a really substantial problem on your hands.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.

 

Memory In The Technology Space Is Now Skyrocketing Says Tom Essaye

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Memory In The Technology Space Is Now Skyrocketing Says Tom Essaye

What average investors should know about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh

“Memory that everyone needs in the technology space is now skyrocketing in price. How long can companies negotiate this? They’ve been doing an amazing job. The answer is not forever, so we can’t get complacent,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, told Yahoo Finance.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on May 3rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Negative U.S.-Iran Headlines Didn’t Hit Markets More on Monday
  • How Is the Consumer So Resilient (Low Unemployment)

Futures are solidly higher this morning and oil prices are down 2%+ as there were no further geopolitical escalations following Iran’s missile strikes on the UAE yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates 25 bp to 4.35% but signaled policy rates are likely to remain “on hold” at current levels, limiting the hawkish impact on global bond markets.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch including International Trade in Goods (E: $-60.4B), New Home Sales (E: 668K), ISM Services Index (E: 53.9), JOLTS (E: 6.8 million). Investors will want to see more signs of solid growth/employment and limited inflation pressures (specifically in the ISM release).

Additionally, there are two Fed officials speaking: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (12:30 p.m. ET) and a handful of noteworthy earnings releases with investors still primarily focused on the tech names. Earnings today include: SHOP ($0.22), PYPL ($1.27), ET ($0.38), AMD ($1.06), SMCI ($0.55), and AMC ($-0.32).

 

Highest Number of Dissents Among FOMC Members Since 1992 – Tom Essaye

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Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer says Tom Essaye

U.S. Dips Into Oil Reserves as Iran War Enters Its Third Month

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting saw the highest number of dissents among voting FOMC members since 1992, leaving the market with limited conviction as to which direction the Fed will move policy rates in the coming months and quarters. Case in point, federal-funds futures have priced back in risks of rate hikes in 2027 (17.5% odds).

Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer that will derail the latest leg of this historic, respect-worthy stock market rally. But markets prefer to have a good idea of what lies ahead, particularly with regard to monetary policy, and the prior consensus view that the Fed is “on hold” for now with the eventual next change to policy rates being a rate cut, not a hike, is poised to be challenged by the latest run-hot economy showing up in the latest “hard data” reports.

And while a run-hot economy is widely preferred over either stagflation or sudden contraction, the uncertainty regarding rate policy will leave the risks of relatively violent bouts of market volatility increasingly elevated as we continue to navigate 2026. Tom Essaye

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Resilient Economic Data Keep Supporting Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Week (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the latest U.S./Iran headlines, including the implication of “Operation Freedom” and a report a U.S. Naval vessel was attacked.

On Sunday, President Trump announced “Operation Freedom,” an operation whereby the U.S. military will help escort trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s reaction to this is unclear, but there are unconfirmed reports a U.S. naval vessel was hit by Iranian missiles and oil is rallying in response (and futures are slipping).

Today headlines from the Gulf will dominate markets and if there’s a resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, expect oil to spike and stocks to drop.  Outside of geopolitics, New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 p.m. ET) and for markets, the more dovish he is, the better.

 

Tom Essaye | Any Ceasefire Agreement Will Be A Market Positive

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Any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive

Stock Bulls Power Longest Weekly Rally Since 2024: Markets Wrap

“On US-Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on April 30th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).