Two Conditions Must Be Met For A Rebound | Tom Essaye

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[New York Stock Market] Falls on Middle East Tensions…Semiconductor Stocks Attract Bargain Buying

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, also analyzed that for the market to rebound, two conditions must be met: strong earnings from major technology companies and clear signs of stabilization in the Middle East.

Also, click here to view the full article on The Asia Business Daily published on July 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye Suggested Investors Will Be Looking For Strong Earnings

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Nasdaq 100 Jumps 1% as Chip Stocks Rebound Before Big Tech Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter, suggested investors will be looking for strong earnings, continued demand, and evidence that technology companies are maintaining discipline rather than accelerating the current competition in AI-related component spending.

Also, click here to view the full article on GuruFocus.com published on July 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Tech Decline Part Two: Staying Long With Less Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part Two: Ways to Stay Long Tech But Reduce AI Infrastructure

Futures are in the red as oil prices hit six-week highs overnight (WTI topped $88/barrel) amid ongoing geopolitical angst surrounding the U.S.-Iran war, but global equities are stabilizing as the fear bid in energy is beginning to show signs of near-term exhaustion.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell -0.2% to 2.6% vs. (E) 2.7% Y/Y while Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% Y/Y, the latest evidence that global inflation pressures have potentially peaked.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak (pre-July meeting blackout period) but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on longer-term inflation expectations and potentially impact equities (the stronger the demand for the bonds, the better).

The primary focus of today’s session will remain the fluid geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (any signs of a ceasefire deal on the table will be a positive) and the Q2 earnings season which remains in full swing with GEV ($3.16), T ($0.59), PM ($2.04), TSLA ($0.53), GOOGL ($2.87), TXN ($1.91), and LUV ($0.52) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

Markets Will Want to See Strong Results Says Tom Essaye

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US Stocks Rebound From Selloff as Nvidia, Other Chipmakers Rise

“Markets will want to see strong results and more signs of robust demand, but also evidence of restraint and a focus on stability and not a further doubling down on the current AI component spending war,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full article on AdvisorsPerspectives.com published on July 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

Futures are higher as global tech shares rebound amid easing geopolitical fears with focus shifting to key tech/semiconductor earnings looming.

Economically, the U.K. Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% vs. (E) 5.0% while the German ZEW Survey’s Economic Sentiment figure jumped 8.3 points to 26.3 vs. (E) 18.0 helping shore up global growth estimates.

There are no notable economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak, however there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

The quiet macro calendar will leave trader focus on earnings with HAL ($0.54), GM ($3.13), SCHW ($1.53), MMM ($2.27), ALK ($-0.97), COF ($4.88), and IBKR ($0.63) all due to report quarterly results today.

 

Could Be A “Canary In The Coal Mine” For The Stock Market

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Tom Essaye said that cheap AI stock valuations could signal that investors are growing fearful that the data center boom could come to a halt.

Why Oracle’s recent credit downgrade could be a warning sign for stocks

According to Tyler Richey, a technical analyst at Sevens Report Research, it could be a “canary in the coal mine” for the stock market.

The ratings agency cut Oracle’s rating from BBB, citing heavy infrastructure spending and it’s high exposure to OpenAI as risks to its ability to meet its debt obligations. While the news went relatively unnoticed in the stock market, Sevens Report says equity investors should pay attention, as it could be an early warning of bigger issues on the horizon.

“ORCL very well may turn out to be the first of the mega-cap-tech ‘Hyperscalers’ to be rolling over into what could (and is increasingly likely to) prove to be the early stages of a longer-term, cyclical bear market for equities,” Richey wrote in a July 13 client note.

“A higher trending junk bond yield index with stocks trading near all-time highs is a troublesome combination,” Richey said.

“Bottom line, the ORCL downgrade last week served as a stark reminder that critical signals from the bond market can be subtle at first, but offer both fair warning of a potential downturn, and a rare opportunity to take action to protect principle in riskier equity and bond market holdings,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on July 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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We need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, Says Tom Essaye

Stocks, Bonds Fall as US-Iran Risks Whipsaw Oil: Markets Wrap

“For stocks to rebound, we need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, and de-escalation in Iran wouldn’t hurt,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Markets will want to see strong results and more signs of robust demand, but also evidence of restraint and a focus on stability.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 19th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Earnings This Week
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Updates

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines despite further escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

Oil prices hit $90/bbl overnight on continued escalation between the U.S. and Iran but pulled back and are flat after both sides reiterated they are still open to negotiations.

Economically, there was more positive inflation data as German PPI fell more than expected (-0.3% vs. (E) -0.2%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but focus will remain on geopolitics and any progress (at all) on a new ceasefire agreement will be a positive for stocks.

On earnings, this week is an important one although most of the major reports come later this week.  Some results we’re watching today include: DPZ ($4.09), AMC ($-0.01), STLD ($3.66).

 

What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

Futures are sharply lower as the selling in tech continued overnight and that is dragging the entire market lower.

Nothing especially “negative” happened overnight but the reality is it’s been a tough week for tech (ASML and TSM earnings weren’t good enough and IBM was bad) and given elevated valuations, it’s triggering intense selling.

Geopolitically, Iran and the U.S. continued to trade strikes but the conflict did not materially escalate.

Focus today will stay on economics and the most important report is the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, and if they decline solidly that should pressure yields and help support this market.  Away from inflation we also get Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.3) and the stronger those reports, the better.

Earnings season also continues with a focus today on regional banks including: RF ($0.64), TFC ($1.08), FITB ($0.98), TRV ($5.16).

 

The AI Trade Has Been More Volatile Advises Tom Essaye

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The AI Trade: How to Navigate Today’s More Nuanced Tech Boom

The AI trade has been a more volatile influence on markets so far in 2026 – and this price action reveals the it’s starting to become more nuanced. Understanding that nuance is now important for understanding if the market can still rally without AI leadership, advises Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Prior to 2026, the AI trade was basically a rising tide that lifted all tech boats regardless of their position in the AI/tech value chain. However, that’s changed. Now, there are three distinct groups/subsectors within the AI trade and they do not all trade together.

In fact, there’s growing evidence they may trade inversely to one another (at least partially and from time to time). Right now, the AI sector in the markets can be loosely grouped into three distinct buckets:

* Receivers of Capital (ROCs). These are the AI/data center infrastructure industries such as memory, semiconductors, networking, cloud storage, computing power, etc. These sectors have surged for most of 2026 as they are “receiving” the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent by the hyperscalers to build out AI data centers.

* Spenders of Capital (SOCs). These are the hyperscalers. They are the ones spending the hundreds of billions of dollars to build and manage AI data centers and create computing and memory capacity to support the rollout of AI across the economy.

* Software/Disrupted Sectors (SaaS). These are the sectors that may be at risk of having their business models “disrupted” (which is just financial media speak for damaged). AI could potentially replace these software solutions and skills and damage these companies’ long-term prospects.

Bottom line: Take stock of tech allocations to make sure they aren’t dramatically overweight semiconductors, memory, SaaS, hyperscalers, etc. Instead, have balance across the various parts of the AI value chain, including ROCs, SOCs and SaaS. That way, as the AI trade continues to evolve, you have balanced exposure to whichever part is taking a leadership role at that time.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on July 15th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here