June MMT: Positive News vs. Stretched Valuations

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table: Positive News Drives Stocks Higher, But Valuations Are Stretched

Futures are higher as the tech-led rebound in the wake of Friday’s market rout continues amid AI earnings optimism and easing geopolitical angst as President Trump reiterates a peace deal with Iran is imminent.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell a slight -0.6 points to 95.3 vs. (E) 96.0 in May but the modest “miss” is helping the bond market stabilize which is helping stocks recover.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic releases to watch: International Trade in Goods (E: $-55.5B) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.08 million) although neither is likely to move markets with CPI looming large tomorrow.

There are no Fed speakers today as policy makers remain in their pre-meeting “blackout period,” but the Treasury will hold auctions for 6-Week & 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 3-Yr Notes at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on bond trader sentiment, and if yields rise on weak auction demand, expect the equity rebound to lose steam (surging yields were one of the major negative catalysts on Friday).

Finally, on the earnings front, a handful of companies are due to report late season quarterly results including ASO ($0.83), UNFI ($0.81), and CBRL (-$0.38) but again, near-term focus will remain on tomorrow’s CPI release, geopolitics, and bond yields.

 

Is There a Potential AI Oversupply Problem?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Potential AI Oversupply Problem?
  • Weekly Market Outlook – Looming IPOs and Key Inflation Data in Focus

Futures are mildly higher as tech/ semis lead (SOXX up ~3% pre-market after a 10%+ decline Friday) despite escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

Geopolitically, military strikes between the U.S/Israel and Iran intensified this weekend, sending oil and yields higher despite President Trump’s calls for immediate ceasefire by all sides earlier this morning.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders fell -3.8% vs. (E) -2.0% M/M in April, rekindling EU growth worries which is helping cap the early rise in bond yields.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released in the U.S. and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET which could impact equities and other markets as Fed policy expectations took a hawkish turn last week (strong demand for the short-duration T-Bills would be a positive for stocks).

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch: CPB ($0.48) and MTN ($8.97), but with geopolitical tensions on the rise and CPI data looming Wednesday, earnings are likely to take a “backseat” as far as market catalysts go in the sessions ahead.

 

U.S./Iran Conflict And AI Continue To Dominate The Market Narrative

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Nasdaq-100 Falls As Investors Rotate From AI To Old Economy

“The U.S./Iran conflict and AI continue to dominate the market narrative, but tomorrow’s jobs report is still very important for markets because the strong labor market is a critical offset for the consumer amidst high inflation,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. “A ‘too tight’ labor market would risk increasing the chances of Fed rate hikes sooner than expected.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Financial Advisor Magazine on June 4th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is AI Friend or Foe to the Labor Market?

Futures are modestly lower mostly on continued tech weakness following AVGO’s disappointing earnings and after a mostly quiet night of news.

Tech stocks are extending Thursday’s post AVGO earnings driven declines and that’s weighing on futures although nothing newly negative occurred overnight.

Economically, the only notable report was Q1 Eurozone GDP which missed estimates (0.3% vs. (E) 0.8%).

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 85K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate and 3.4% y/y Wage Growth.  The “best case” scenario is a Goldilocks number with above expectations job adds and unemployment and wages that meet or slightly beat expectations, as that will imply a stable labor market but not one that is putting upside pressure on inflation.

 

Jobs Report Preview: More Evidence of a Run Hot Economy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: More Evidence of a Run Hot Economy?

Futures are modestly lower as tech weakness is offsetting positive geopolitical news.

Broadcom (AVGO) posted disappointing guidance and became the first big AI linked tech company with underwhelming earnings and the stock is down 13% premarket.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and that’s pressuring oil prices and supporting non-tech stocks.

Today focus will be on geopolitics (tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire would be an incremental positive) and economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 0.7%, 2.3%).  It remains the case that Goldilocks economic data (solid activity and stable prices) is the most positive for stocks.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (1:10 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Technicals

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals focused on a question many investors are asking but few are answering clearly: Is this rally broadening, or are markets becoming even more dependent on a handful of winners?

While major indexes continue to push higher, the underlying technical picture is becoming more nuanced. In Monday’s report, we analyzed key support and resistance levels across stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and volatility markets while also highlighting several important divergences developing beneath the surface. We also reviewed sector leadership trends, market breadth, sentiment, and intermarket signals to determine whether this advance remains healthy or if caution is warranted.

If you want a clearer understanding of what is driving markets right now, where leadership is emerging, and which technical signals deserve the most attention in the weeks ahead, click below to access this issue of Sevens Report Technicals and see the charts that matter most.

Sevens Report Technicals

 

Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From
  • Visual – Money Is Moving From the Hyperscalers
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways

Futures are mildly lower as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East overnight with the U.S. and Iran launching a fresh wave of military strikes against one another which sent crude oil prices and global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s May Service PMI was solid (54.4 vs. E: 52.2) while the EU Composite PMI was better than feared (48.5 vs. E: 47.5) but still in contraction territory. Paired with the latest EU PPI release, which showed a headline increase of 4.9% vs. (E) 4.5% Y/Y, the data rekindled stagflation fears in the Eurozone.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus appears to be shifting back to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, so any material developments (good or bad) will likely impact markets with traders keenly watching oil prices as a bellwether.

On the data front, “jobs week” kicks off with today’s ADP Employment Report (E: 120K) due out ahead of the bell, while data on Factory Orders (E: 4.3%) and the ISM Services Index (E: 53.9) will both be released shortly after the opening bell. The stronger the growth data/cooler the inflation data, the better for stocks.

Additionally there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Barr (9:00 a.m. ET) and Logan (4:00 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for a less-hawkish tone regarding potential rate hikes in 2026 in order for the risk-on rally to continue.

Finally, on the earnings front, quarterly results from MDT ($1.54), M ($0.02), AVGO ($2.02), CRWD ($0.13), AI ($-0.74), and FIVE ($1.70) are all due to be released. The semiconductor/AI-names will be particularly important as tech earnings/revenue growth has been a major market tailwind in Q2.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In The Money Show

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SPX: The Underappreciated Force Behind Market Resilience

A key (and largely underappreciated) factor behind recent stock market resilience, with the S&P 500 Inex (^SPX) reversing from early losses to record highs late last week, was a meaningful shift in Federal Reserve sentiment, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

As the CME’s FedWatch tool shows, rate hike odds between now and the end of 2026 have reversed sharply to two-week lows – fading below 50% after being as high as 70% the week before.

That is noteworthy in the context of last week’s Goldilocks PCE data and lower-revised Q1 GDP growth. The data reduced the threats of runaway inflation and a run-hot economy.

Those were two simmering risks behind May’s Treasury yield breakout, including the 30-Year Treasury Bond yield hitting its highest level since 2007. With the 30-year now 20 bps below its mid-May peak, accelerating inflation and run-hot economy risks are being priced out. Plus, Fed policy expectations have shifted from a market headwind to a market-neutral/market-positive influence on risk assets.

In the sessions ahead, it will be important to see rate hike odds and Treasury yields continue to fade, as those fixed income dynamics are acting as a meaningful new tailwind for stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is Tokenmaxxing? (And Why Does It Matter to You?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is Tokenmaxxing and Why Does It Matter to You?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower as a wave of broad market profit taking is being partially offset by a bid in the tech sector after NVDA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, said MRVL (+25%) could be the next $1T company overnight, stoking a fresh sense of AI-enthusiasm.

Economically, the Eurozone’s May HICP Flash rose 3.2% vs. (E) 3.3% Y/Y with the Narrow-Core rising to 2.5% vs. (E) 2.4% Y/Y.

Today, there are two domestic economic reports to watch with JOLTS (E: 6.815 million) being the key number to watch followed by Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.0 million).

Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak this morning: Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, both of which could move bond yields and influence equity markets (the lower yields go, the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings to watch today including DG ($1.89), VSCO ($0.29), PANW ($0.43), GTLB (-$0.06), and ULTA ($6.91); the stronger the results, the better for the bullish equity narrative.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In NDTV On May 27th, 2026

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Wall Street Highlights: S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Record Close On AI Rally, Optimism Over Iran Deal

“Don’t expect an agreement to immediately send the S&P 500 running to 8,000,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Still, he said the end of the war would allow investors to focus on strong earnings growth, which will “increase the rally potential for the market.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on May 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tech earnings and economic growth stay strong?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy Week Highlighted by Friday’s Jobs Report

Futures are modestly higher despite no U.S./Iran ceasefire and as AI Enthusiasm continues to support stocks.

There was no additional progress on a U.S./Iran agreement and the two sides again exchanged limited strikes but markets still expect a ceasefire agreement in the coming days.

Nvidia unveiled a new AI processor designed specifically for Windows and that is boosting tech and futures.

This week is a busy and potentially important one from an economic standpoint and it starts today with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.3). Markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading of better than expected headline activity and tame price indices (the opposite would be stagflationary and negative for markets). We also get one Fed speaker today, Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Notable tech earnings continue this week including today:   SAIC ($2.26), HPE ($0.44).