Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

What’s in Today’s Report:

• Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

Alpha Webinar: What Outperforms If Inflation Becomes a Problem (Again)?

Inflation is firming, yields are climbing, and the idea of rate hikes later this year is gaining traction. That combination caught markets off guard in 2022—and the result was a sharp repricing across stocks and bonds.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar, I will revisit that period to build a practical playbook for today’s environment. Specifically, I will break down which assets held up best, which sectors outperformed and lagged, and what strategies proved most effective when inflation and rates moved higher.

I’ll also translate those insights into actionable positioning frameworks you can use now, and clear talking points you can use with clients.

Access the full report and playbook here: Sevens Report Alpha