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What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

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Sevens Report says investors dismiss headlines unless oil risk spikes

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Tom Essaye says markets still expect a ceasefire despite conflicting signals.

The Market Is Ignoring Negative Iran Headlines. 3 Things That Could Change That.

Markets largely ignored conflicting U.S.-Iran headlines, a reaction Sevens Report Research attributes to fragmented messaging out of Iran.

Tom Essaye notes, “That explains the seemingly opposite headlines emanating from the country as one group, who the White House seems to be communicating with most directly, makes assurances and negotiates a ceasefire while another group takes a hardline approach.”

“Whether this is by fault or by design is unclear, but it is at least partially responsible for the whiplash that we have seen in the headlines coming from Iran.”

Despite the volatility in headlines, Essaye says markets remain anchored to a broader de-escalation outlook.

“The daily headlines aren’t meaningless, but until the market believes one of them breaks the trend towards a sustainable ceasefire, the market will continue to look past it.”

He warns that a material escalation—such as attacks on Gulf infrastructure, U.S. military assets, or prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—would likely trigger a sharp selloff.

“Bottom line, the market fear has always been that the conflict would expand to substantially disrupt oil flows and send the price of oil above $150 towards $200 a barrel,” Essaye writes. “However, that remains unlikely, and as long as it stays unlikely, the market will give the ceasefire process the benefit of the doubt.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye Says That Markets Still Expect a Lasting Ceasefire

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US Stocks Open Lower as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, but Losses Are Limited

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said markets still expect a lasting ceasefire agreement in the relatively near term. Unless ceasefire talks in Pakistan are called off, investors will largely continue to ignore negative geopolitical headlines, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Bloomingbit.io published on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Dual Focus This Week on Iran but Also Key Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Futures are moderately lower as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no material progress and, in response, President Trump ordered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is boosting oil prices (up 8%) and weighing on futures.

Economically,  there were no notable reports over the weekend.

Today focus will stay on the Strait of Hormuz and specifically if the partial blockade goes into effect and, if so, whether that reignites direct conflict (if so, that would be an incremental negative).

Outside of geopolitics, this is an important week for earnings as we get major banks reporting this week (among other notable companies) and that starts today via GS ($16.34), FAST ($0.30) and FBK ($1.13) results.  In this environment, the stronger the earnings and guidance, the better for stocks.

Finally, there is one economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.07 million), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Geopolitical Headlines Will Remain The Primary Focus Says Tom Essaye

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Geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus

S&P 500 Gains on Hopes for Iran Peace Talks

“Today, geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus and any signs that a ceasefire deal is likely to be agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran has the potential to spark a continued relief rally, extending last week’s gains in equity markets,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil Thresholds to Watch This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • All About Oil – Key Price Thresholds to Watch This Week
  • March ISM Services Index Takeaways – A Fresh Whiff of Stagflation

Stock futures reversed from modest overnight gains to trade with mild losses during the last hour as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded ahead of tonight’s deal-deadline.

Geopolitically, news that Iran has “rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S.” saw oil turn higher from overnight lows with WTI revisiting YTD highs near $115/barrel in pre-market trade.

Economically, the Final EU Composite PMI fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February, slightly above the Flash reading of 50.5 but the data is not materially impacting markets given elevated geopolitical angst.

Looking into today’s session, there are two notable domestic economic reports to watch: Durable Goods (E: -0.2%) this morning and Consumer Credit (E: $12.0B) this afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Goolsbee (12:35 p.m. ET) and Jefferson (5:50 p.m. ET) and a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET). Either speaker or any unexpected strength/weakness in the auction has the potential to move bonds which could impact equities (falling yields are the best outcome for equities today).

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (up 7%) as President Trump pushed back on near term deescalation hopes in the U.S./Iran war during his prime time address.

President Trump reiterated a limited U.S. operation (lasting another few weeks) but warned of further near term escalation and gave no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing near term ceasefire hopes and sending oil higher.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (anything that increases the chances of a U.S. ground assault will further boost oil and be incrementally negative for stocks) but we do get two important labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Challenger layoffs.  Given geo-political uncertainty, the stronger the labor market data, the better as it will push back on stagflation concerns (although the data won’t stop the selloff without positive geopolitical news).

There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

 

Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse
  • Weekly Market Preview: Are there any Real Signs of De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Friday (It’s a Busy Week for Data)

Futures are modestly higher in reaction to more positive commentary from President Trump on the war in Iran.

President Trump told the FT that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 point ceasefire plan and that is boosting futures.

Away from rhetoric, the conflict escalated further over the weekend as the Houthis attacked Israel while an Iranian missile struck a Saudi air base, damaging military aircraft. The gap between rhetoric and actual events in the conflict is keeping any gains in futures modest.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and for this early bounce to hold, we’ll need to see some events on the ground also point towards de-escalation.  Away from the war, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m., so his comments have the potential to move markets.

 

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Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Iran – Do We See De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Any Signs Higher Oil Is Impacting Growth?

Futures have reversed this morning’s losses and are sharply higher after President Trump announced a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure and cited “productive” talks with Iran.

This comes after President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened to ship traffic (he implied a Monday night deadline).

Oil prices fell sharply in response to the U.S-Iran update from the President this morning.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and we can continue to expect stocks to trade inversely to the price of oil. So, any signs of de-escalation (including social media posts or actual events) should make oil drop and stocks rebound while any signs of further escalation (again, including social media posts or actual events) will put more pressure on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), but that shouldn’t move markets.