Posts

Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s

/in , /by

Markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

Stocks Inch Lower. Inflation and Retail Sales Data Are on Tap.

“As long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Can a Run Hot Economy Turn into Stagflation?

Futures are modestly higher as President Trump downplayed the latest strikes on Iran.

President Trump called Thursday’s strikes on Iran a “love tap” and reiterated the ceasefire was still in place, easing markets concerns.

German Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-3.0% vs. (E) -2.5% y/y) but that’s not moving markets.

Focus today will be on the April jobs report and expectations are as follows:  63K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 3.8% Y/Y Wage Growth.  The best case for markets remains a Goldilocks number that combines a solid jobs number modestly above estimates and stable wage growth at or below estimates.

Geopolitically, the market continues to ignore headlines about limited U.S./Iran strikes and likely will continue to do so as long as the administration says the ceasefire is still in place.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers this evening including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee & Waller (7:30 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

Alpha Webinar: What Outperforms If Inflation Becomes a Problem (Again)?

Inflation is firming, yields are climbing, and the idea of rate hikes later this year is gaining traction. That combination caught markets off guard in 2022—and the result was a sharp repricing across stocks and bonds.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar, I will revisit that period to build a practical playbook for today’s environment. Specifically, I will break down which assets held up best, which sectors outperformed and lagged, and what strategies proved most effective when inflation and rates moved higher.

I’ll also translate those insights into actionable positioning frameworks you can use now, and clear talking points you can use with clients.

Access the full report and playbook here: Sevens Report Alpha

 

What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Dissents Mean for Markets (Identifying the Biggest Macro Risk)

Futures are slightly higher despite mixed mega-cap tech earnings and negative headlines on Iran.

Mega-cap tech earnings aren’t moving markets as they were mixed and largely offset one another.

On Iran, reports continue to surface about an extended blockade of the Strait and that is boosting oil prices.

Today will be another busy day of economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and given growing concerns about higher rates, this number needs to meet expectations.   Important growth metrics today include Advanced Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%) and Jobless Claims (E: 212K).

On earnings, it’s another important day and four reports we’re especially watching are: AAPL ($1.92), SNDK ($13.66), CAT ($4.55) and MA ($4.40) as they will give us insight into the state of AI and consumer/business spending.  As has been the case, the stronger the results, the better.

 

Sevens Report Alpha: How to Find Value When the Market Looks Fully Priced

In our latest Sevens Report Alpha issue, released Tuesday, we tackled a challenge many advisors face right now: helping clients see opportunity when major indexes are sitting at all-time highs. The report offers a framework for doing exactly that, including several underappreciated areas of the market we believe deserve a closer look.

This is not about chasing what has already worked. It is about identifying areas that may still offer attractive risk/reward and using that as a practical way to discuss opportunity with clients even in a market that feels expensive on the surface.

Learn more and start a risk-free Alpha trial: Sevens Report Alpha 

 

Sevens Report says investors dismiss headlines unless oil risk spikes

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says markets still expect a ceasefire despite conflicting signals.

The Market Is Ignoring Negative Iran Headlines. 3 Things That Could Change That.

Markets largely ignored conflicting U.S.-Iran headlines, a reaction Sevens Report Research attributes to fragmented messaging out of Iran.

Tom Essaye notes, “That explains the seemingly opposite headlines emanating from the country as one group, who the White House seems to be communicating with most directly, makes assurances and negotiates a ceasefire while another group takes a hardline approach.”

“Whether this is by fault or by design is unclear, but it is at least partially responsible for the whiplash that we have seen in the headlines coming from Iran.”

Despite the volatility in headlines, Essaye says markets remain anchored to a broader de-escalation outlook.

“The daily headlines aren’t meaningless, but until the market believes one of them breaks the trend towards a sustainable ceasefire, the market will continue to look past it.”

He warns that a material escalation—such as attacks on Gulf infrastructure, U.S. military assets, or prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—would likely trigger a sharp selloff.

“Bottom line, the market fear has always been that the conflict would expand to substantially disrupt oil flows and send the price of oil above $150 towards $200 a barrel,” Essaye writes. “However, that remains unlikely, and as long as it stays unlikely, the market will give the ceasefire process the benefit of the doubt.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Says That Markets Still Expect a Lasting Ceasefire

/in , /by

US Stocks Open Lower as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, but Losses Are Limited

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said markets still expect a lasting ceasefire agreement in the relatively near term. Unless ceasefire talks in Pakistan are called off, investors will largely continue to ignore negative geopolitical headlines, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Bloomingbit.io published on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Dual Focus This Week on Iran but Also Key Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Futures are moderately lower as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no material progress and, in response, President Trump ordered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is boosting oil prices (up 8%) and weighing on futures.

Economically,  there were no notable reports over the weekend.

Today focus will stay on the Strait of Hormuz and specifically if the partial blockade goes into effect and, if so, whether that reignites direct conflict (if so, that would be an incremental negative).

Outside of geopolitics, this is an important week for earnings as we get major banks reporting this week (among other notable companies) and that starts today via GS ($16.34), FAST ($0.30) and FBK ($1.13) results.  In this environment, the stronger the earnings and guidance, the better for stocks.

Finally, there is one economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.07 million), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Geopolitical Headlines Will Remain The Primary Focus Says Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus

S&P 500 Gains on Hopes for Iran Peace Talks

“Today, geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus and any signs that a ceasefire deal is likely to be agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran has the potential to spark a continued relief rally, extending last week’s gains in equity markets,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil Thresholds to Watch This Week

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • All About Oil – Key Price Thresholds to Watch This Week
  • March ISM Services Index Takeaways – A Fresh Whiff of Stagflation

Stock futures reversed from modest overnight gains to trade with mild losses during the last hour as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded ahead of tonight’s deal-deadline.

Geopolitically, news that Iran has “rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S.” saw oil turn higher from overnight lows with WTI revisiting YTD highs near $115/barrel in pre-market trade.

Economically, the Final EU Composite PMI fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February, slightly above the Flash reading of 50.5 but the data is not materially impacting markets given elevated geopolitical angst.

Looking into today’s session, there are two notable domestic economic reports to watch: Durable Goods (E: -0.2%) this morning and Consumer Credit (E: $12.0B) this afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Goolsbee (12:35 p.m. ET) and Jefferson (5:50 p.m. ET) and a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET). Either speaker or any unexpected strength/weakness in the auction has the potential to move bonds which could impact equities (falling yields are the best outcome for equities today).