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Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (Monthly Update)
  • Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

Futures are little changed as markets digest more mixed headlines on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks.

Geopolitically, President Trump denied Monday’s “sanction relief for nuclear concessions” headlines, but negotiations appear on going in some form (which is positive).

Geopolitics will remain the primary market driver today and any positive headlines on a ceasefire should pressure oil and help stocks rebound.

Economically, reports today include the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 2.4%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 90.0) but they’re unlikely to move markets, barring a major surprise.

We do have a lot of Fed speakers today and of them, Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (3:00 p.m. ET) are the most important.  Other Fed speakers today include Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET), Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and Musalem (1:30 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if the tone from Fed speakers remains hawkish that will help support the dollar and yields.

Finally, there are two consumer-focused companies reporting today, CCL ($1.36) and KMX ($0.68) and the stronger the reports, the better.

 

It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

U.S. futures are higher as Treasury yields pull back and a sharp drop in oil prices provides relief for investors.

Oil prices are falling after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased approach to ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, the BoJ Core CPI rose 1.8% y/y vs. (E) 1.5%, while German GfK Consumer Climate fell to -30.6 vs. (E) -27.1.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K), while markets will continue to watch Treasury yields and oil prices for signs of easing inflation pressure.

Finally, two Fed speakers are speaking today: Schmid (9:20 a.m. ET) and Hammack (2:00 p.m. ET).

 

Focus Will Stay On Geopolitics | Tom Essaye

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Wall Street Highlights: Nasdaq 100 Climbs To Its First Record Since June

“Focus will stay on geopolitics, and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the US and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on September 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on September 22nd

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Stock Futures Waver Near Flatline as Wall Street Craves Diplomacy

“Today focus will stay on geopolitics and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally,” Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 22nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

September MMT: Headwinds Present but Earning Growth a Major Positive

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Market Multiple Table (MMT): Headwinds Present but Earnings Growth a Major Positive

Futures are modestly lower as the U.S. and Iran again exchanged reciprocal strikes overnight, sending oil prices higher.

Brent crude rose above $100/bbl for the first time since May after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes on oil tankers and naval vessels, further diminishing any near term hopes for ceasefire progress.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which beat expectations (0.8% y/y vs. (E) 0.4% y/y).

Today there are no notable economic reports (the key reports this week come Thursday/Friday via PPI/CPI) so focus will stay on geopolitics and the story remains the same:  Any hint of the U.S. or Iran seeking a ceasefire will push oil lower and help stocks rebound, while more reciprocal strikes will only further boost oil prices and pressure stocks.

Beyond oil, we need to watch treasury yields.  So far this week they haven’t rallied despite higher oil prices (the looming CPI is likely keeping them stable) but if that changes and yields start to rise on higher oil prices, the downward pressure on stocks will increase.

 

Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Market’s Just Waiting For The Light To Turn Green

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The Stock Market Is at a Stop Light. Wall Street Awaits ‘Green Light’ on Iran, Inflation.

“We really are at a little stoplight on the drive higher, and the market’s just waiting for the light to turn green on Hormuz and on CPI, and then I think the rally will resume,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

For the market, the on-again-off-again nature of supposed talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have become a “nuisance” for markets, Essaye says, though he thinks Wall Street sees an agreement as inevitable. In the meantime, WTI crude oil futures were up 1.3% to $83.20 a barrel.

“That’s not on the forefront of the market’s radar, but it should be,” Essaye says. “Because if we get a hot CPI tomorrow, they’re going to take a run toward 5%, probably by the end of the week. And that would be a new negative for markets.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

Futures are slightly higher despite post earnings selling in AI linked tech stocks, as lower oil boosts futures.

CSCO earnings weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down 6% pre-market, although it’s not weighing on the rest of the market.

There was no discernable progress on U.S./Iran peace talks but oil dropped 1% overnight on falling fears of escalation.

Today focus will remain on inflation and the economy via PPI  (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.9% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 203K).  The lower PPI and the closer jobless claims are to 200k, the better for markets (it’d be a Goldilocks reading). We also have one Fed speaker today, Barkin (8:40 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, tech results continue and today’s key report is AMAT ($3.38).

 

Putting New Highs in the Right Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New Highs in the Right Context
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the “Chase” Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation is Key This Week (CPI on Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher despite no progress on the Strait of Hormuz reopening or a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

A ship was attacked over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz and there are no more details on an Iran/Oman agreement on the Strait, so traffic remains effectively halted.

However, there appears to be no appetite from the U.S. to resume air strikes, so the lack of progress isn’t a negative for markets and oil prices are only up modestly (a bit over 1%).

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitics and any details that imply increased Strait of Hormuz transit will pressure oil and help support stocks.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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We need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, Says Tom Essaye

Stocks, Bonds Fall as US-Iran Risks Whipsaw Oil: Markets Wrap

“For stocks to rebound, we need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, and de-escalation in Iran wouldn’t hurt,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Markets will want to see strong results and more signs of robust demand, but also evidence of restraint and a focus on stability.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 19th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.