Pain Trade Sevens Report

Political Risks to this Market

Political risks to this market, futures are sharply lower (about 1%), Chinese Retail Sales (8.1% vs. (E) 9.0%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 5.9%) both badly missed estimates, geopolitically it was a quiet night although Chinese officials confirmed the reduction of auto tariffs to 15% from 40% (this was already pledged but it is good to see it will be enacted on Jan 1.) and more.

Economic Breaker Panel December Update

Economic Breaker Panel December update (more signs of weakness), EIA Analysis – can the bounce in oil hold?, Futures are slightly higher following a very quiet night of news, as markets digest recent volatility, economic data was sparse as German CPI was the only notable number and it met expectations (2.3% yoy), today the highlight event is the ECB Meeting (E: No Change to Rates) but other than a potentially dovish tone from Draghi at the press conference, this shouldn’t impact markets too much. and more.

Oil Rig - Oil Report was Bearish

Technical Update (Encouraging Signals)

Market technical update (encouraging signals), why the yield curve has flattened SO quickly (Blame Oil), futures are modestly lower as markets digest yesterday’s late day rally and look ahead to this morning’s jobs report, geopolitically, initial reports imply the U.S./China trade talks will continue despite the Huawei CFO arrest, why stocks rebounded yesterday and more.

Transports low - a warning from dow theory

Why Markets Are Dropping Again

Why markets are dropping again (And Why We Don’t Think It’s a Bearish Gamechanger), what needs to happen in the short term for markets to stabilize, jobs report preview, futures are sharply lower as the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada has added to uncertainty on U.S./China trade, while oil is down sharply due to OPEC disappointment and more.

OPEC’s Catch-22

OPEC’s Catch-22 Explained, ISM Manufacturing PMI Analysis, futures are modestly lower as the Trump-Xi “trade truce” continues to be digested this morning while the yield curve flattened further overnight, underscoring growth concerns, the major underlying story this morning is the yield curve as the 2’s-10s spread compressed to new lows overnight (13bp) and the 2’s-5’s actually inverted. and more.