Last Week: There was very little incremental economic data last week, and what reports did come met expectations and importantly did nothing to change the perception that economic activity is legitimately accelerating—a perception that continues to support stocks broadly. From a domestic data viewpoint, there isn’t a lot to talk about. Jobless claims continued to […]
Last Week There was a lot of economic data last week despite the holiday, and the general takeaway is that the data reinforced the expectation that the Fed was on track to hike rates in December. Durable Goods was the positive surprise last week as not only did the headline beat, but the key “Non […]
Last Week Economic data last week largely met expectations and the key takeaway was that the data further reinforced the expectation by the market that a rate hike is coming in December. Starting with the manufacturing sector, there were three notable releases: Two from November (Empire Manufacturing Survey and Philly Fed Survey) and one from […]
Last Week The major takeaway from the data last week was that a rate hike from December remains expected, but not certain. Internationally, European data was again lackluster, but with more QE on the way the data is being generally ignored. The October economic reports from China reinforced that growth there is stable, and China […]
Last Week Last week’s economic data was strong, and that was punctuated by Friday’s blowout jobs report—and the net result of the data was that a rate hike is now expected in December. Starting with the jobs report, it was very clearly in our “Too Hot” scenario. Headline job adds were very strong at 271k […]
Last Week Last week the key event was the FOMC being more hawkish than expected and putting a December rate hike back on the table. That hawkish statement coincided with a Q3 GDP that was stronger than expected, but other than that the September data was almost universally disappointing, so despite the optimism from the […]
Last Week Global markets got a badly needed boost of confidence last week from economic data, as reports gave further proof that the Chinese economy is stabilizing and that turmoil from the emerging markets is not dragging European and US economies downward. That, combined with more global central bank easing (the PBOC cut rates Friday […]
Last Week Data last week added to concerns that the US economy is losing positive momentum, as virtually every economic report, with the exception of jobless claims and consumer sentiment, missed estimates. While in a absolute sense US economic growth remains decent, the rate of change is what’s got people nervous. No better number was […]
Last Week Economic data last week generally confirmed what we already knew: There appears to be some loss of positive momentum in the US economy; global growth remains sluggish, and the Fed is dovish. Nothing last week materially changed anyone’s outlook for US or global economic growth. The FOMC minutes were the highlight of last […]