How to Capitalize on the World Cup (5 Top ETFs to Buy)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Capitalize on the World Cup – 5 Top ETFs to Buy
  • CPI Takeaways – Inflation Rises, But Core Up Less Than Feared

Futures are higher with tech/semis leading as the U.S. called an end to the latest wave of military strikes against Iran which is offsetting a negative reaction to ORCL earnings (shares down ~8%) due to lofty cap-ex plans.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight leaving traders focused on the ECB meeting announcement (8:15 a.m. ET) with President Lagarde’s press conference to follow.

Beyond the ECB decision, traders will be eyeing today’s Jobless Claims release (E: 215K) as well as the second important U.S. inflation print of the week: PPI (E: 1.4% m/m, 6.0% y/y). An in-line claims print and as-expected, or cooler-than-feared PPI print should help stocks stabilize.

Heading into the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 4-Week & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will offer further insight to the bond markets view of inflation/Fed policy outlook as the Fed remains in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s meeting (no Fed speakers today).

Finaly, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today including: ADBE ($4.74), LEN ($1.23), and RH (-$2.07), and as has been the case all season, the stronger the results, the better.

 

Sevens Report Alpha

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June MMT Chart: Three Technical Caution Signals

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart – Three Caution Signals

Futures are lower as traders digest the latest geopolitical escalations with the U.S. launching “retaliatory strikes” against Iran overnight after a U.S. military helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday while focus shifts to critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Chinese CPI held steady at 1.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 1.3% in May, helping somewhat ease global inflation worries.

Today, traders will be keenly focused on U.S. inflation data with CPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.2% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) data due out ahead of the open. The latest Treasury Statement (E: $-269.5B) will also be released in the afternoon but is unlikely to move markets.

Beyond the CPI report, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could offer insight on the bond market’s reaction to this morning’s inflation data, and ultimately impact equities (the stronger the demand, the better for stocks, near-term).

Finally, on the earnings front, quarterly reports are due out from CHWY ($0.24) and ORCL ($1.58), the latter of which could present a fresh catalysts for the shaky AI-trade. A miss could restart heavy selling while strong results could prompt a fresh, squeezy/chase higher in AI, tech, and semiconductor stocks in afterhours trade.

 

June MMT: Positive News vs. Stretched Valuations

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table: Positive News Drives Stocks Higher, But Valuations Are Stretched

Futures are higher as the tech-led rebound in the wake of Friday’s market rout continues amid AI earnings optimism and easing geopolitical angst as President Trump reiterates a peace deal with Iran is imminent.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell a slight -0.6 points to 95.3 vs. (E) 96.0 in May but the modest “miss” is helping the bond market stabilize which is helping stocks recover.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic releases to watch: International Trade in Goods (E: $-55.5B) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.08 million) although neither is likely to move markets with CPI looming large tomorrow.

There are no Fed speakers today as policy makers remain in their pre-meeting “blackout period,” but the Treasury will hold auctions for 6-Week & 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 3-Yr Notes at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on bond trader sentiment, and if yields rise on weak auction demand, expect the equity rebound to lose steam (surging yields were one of the major negative catalysts on Friday).

Finally, on the earnings front, a handful of companies are due to report late season quarterly results including ASO ($0.83), UNFI ($0.81), and CBRL (-$0.38) but again, near-term focus will remain on tomorrow’s CPI release, geopolitics, and bond yields.

 

Is There a Potential AI Oversupply Problem?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Potential AI Oversupply Problem?
  • Weekly Market Outlook – Looming IPOs and Key Inflation Data in Focus

Futures are mildly higher as tech/ semis lead (SOXX up ~3% pre-market after a 10%+ decline Friday) despite escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend.

Geopolitically, military strikes between the U.S/Israel and Iran intensified this weekend, sending oil and yields higher despite President Trump’s calls for immediate ceasefire by all sides earlier this morning.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders fell -3.8% vs. (E) -2.0% M/M in April, rekindling EU growth worries which is helping cap the early rise in bond yields.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released in the U.S. and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET which could impact equities and other markets as Fed policy expectations took a hawkish turn last week (strong demand for the short-duration T-Bills would be a positive for stocks).

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch: CPB ($0.48) and MTN ($8.97), but with geopolitical tensions on the rise and CPI data looming Wednesday, earnings are likely to take a “backseat” as far as market catalysts go in the sessions ahead.

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is AI Friend or Foe to the Labor Market?

Futures are modestly lower mostly on continued tech weakness following AVGO’s disappointing earnings and after a mostly quiet night of news.

Tech stocks are extending Thursday’s post AVGO earnings driven declines and that’s weighing on futures although nothing newly negative occurred overnight.

Economically, the only notable report was Q1 Eurozone GDP which missed estimates (0.3% vs. (E) 0.8%).

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 85K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate and 3.4% y/y Wage Growth.  The “best case” scenario is a Goldilocks number with above expectations job adds and unemployment and wages that meet or slightly beat expectations, as that will imply a stable labor market but not one that is putting upside pressure on inflation.

 

Jobs Report Preview: More Evidence of a Run Hot Economy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: More Evidence of a Run Hot Economy?

Futures are modestly lower as tech weakness is offsetting positive geopolitical news.

Broadcom (AVGO) posted disappointing guidance and became the first big AI linked tech company with underwhelming earnings and the stock is down 13% premarket.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and that’s pressuring oil prices and supporting non-tech stocks.

Today focus will be on geopolitics (tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire would be an incremental positive) and economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 0.7%, 2.3%).  It remains the case that Goldilocks economic data (solid activity and stable prices) is the most positive for stocks.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (1:10 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Technicals

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals focused on a question many investors are asking but few are answering clearly: Is this rally broadening, or are markets becoming even more dependent on a handful of winners?

While major indexes continue to push higher, the underlying technical picture is becoming more nuanced. In Monday’s report, we analyzed key support and resistance levels across stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and volatility markets while also highlighting several important divergences developing beneath the surface. We also reviewed sector leadership trends, market breadth, sentiment, and intermarket signals to determine whether this advance remains healthy or if caution is warranted.

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Sevens Report Technicals

 

Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From
  • Visual – Money Is Moving From the Hyperscalers
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways

Futures are mildly lower as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East overnight with the U.S. and Iran launching a fresh wave of military strikes against one another which sent crude oil prices and global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s May Service PMI was solid (54.4 vs. E: 52.2) while the EU Composite PMI was better than feared (48.5 vs. E: 47.5) but still in contraction territory. Paired with the latest EU PPI release, which showed a headline increase of 4.9% vs. (E) 4.5% Y/Y, the data rekindled stagflation fears in the Eurozone.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus appears to be shifting back to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, so any material developments (good or bad) will likely impact markets with traders keenly watching oil prices as a bellwether.

On the data front, “jobs week” kicks off with today’s ADP Employment Report (E: 120K) due out ahead of the bell, while data on Factory Orders (E: 4.3%) and the ISM Services Index (E: 53.9) will both be released shortly after the opening bell. The stronger the growth data/cooler the inflation data, the better for stocks.

Additionally there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Barr (9:00 a.m. ET) and Logan (4:00 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for a less-hawkish tone regarding potential rate hikes in 2026 in order for the risk-on rally to continue.

Finally, on the earnings front, quarterly results from MDT ($1.54), M ($0.02), AVGO ($2.02), CRWD ($0.13), AI ($-0.74), and FIVE ($1.70) are all due to be released. The semiconductor/AI-names will be particularly important as tech earnings/revenue growth has been a major market tailwind in Q2.

 

What Is Tokenmaxxing? (And Why Does It Matter to You?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is Tokenmaxxing and Why Does It Matter to You?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower as a wave of broad market profit taking is being partially offset by a bid in the tech sector after NVDA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, said MRVL (+25%) could be the next $1T company overnight, stoking a fresh sense of AI-enthusiasm.

Economically, the Eurozone’s May HICP Flash rose 3.2% vs. (E) 3.3% Y/Y with the Narrow-Core rising to 2.5% vs. (E) 2.4% Y/Y.

Today, there are two domestic economic reports to watch with JOLTS (E: 6.815 million) being the key number to watch followed by Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.0 million).

Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak this morning: Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, both of which could move bond yields and influence equity markets (the lower yields go, the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings to watch today including DG ($1.89), VSCO ($0.29), PANW ($0.43), GTLB (-$0.06), and ULTA ($6.91); the stronger the results, the better for the bullish equity narrative.

 

Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tech earnings and economic growth stay strong?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy Week Highlighted by Friday’s Jobs Report

Futures are modestly higher despite no U.S./Iran ceasefire and as AI Enthusiasm continues to support stocks.

There was no additional progress on a U.S./Iran agreement and the two sides again exchanged limited strikes but markets still expect a ceasefire agreement in the coming days.

Nvidia unveiled a new AI processor designed specifically for Windows and that is boosting tech and futures.

This week is a busy and potentially important one from an economic standpoint and it starts today with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.3). Markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading of better than expected headline activity and tame price indices (the opposite would be stagflationary and negative for markets). We also get one Fed speaker today, Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Notable tech earnings continue this week including today:   SAIC ($2.26), HPE ($0.44).

 

New Market Tailwind: Falling Rate Hike Fears

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New Market Tailwind:  Falling Rate Hike Fears

Futures are slightly higher as markets await confirmation of a U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement while tech earnings continued to be very, very strong.

There was no update on the U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement overnight but numerous reports state a deal has been struck and is awaiting President Trump’s approval.

On earnings, DELL is the latest AI linked tech company to post blow out results and the stock is up 35% pre-open.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and specifically confirmation from Trump of the ceasefire agreement.  The deal is mostly priced into markets so confirmation shouldn’t cause a big rally, although if the deal is rejected it will be a modest negative.

Away from geopolitics, the only key economic report today is the Chicago PMI (E: 51.2) and barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  There are numerous Fed speakers, however, including Bowman (9:10 a.m. ET), Paulson (9:15 a.m. ET) and Daly (12:40 p.m. ET) and if they are hawkish it could put a mild headwind on stocks.