What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?
  • Jobless Claims Takeaways – Initial Claims Plunge to Multi-Decade Lows

Futures are tentatively higher following yesterday’s biggest stock market selloff of July with oil down 2%-3% amid quiet geopolitical news while global PMI data beat estimates.

Economic data overnight was strong with U.K. Retail Sales jumping 4.2% vs. (E) 2.0% y/y while the EU Composite Flash PMI firmed from 50.0 to 51.9 vs. (E) 50.1 in July.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two notable releases to watch in the U.S., the July PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.2) and New Home Sales (E: 613K) for June.

There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold.

Finally, earnings season continues today with noteworthy companies reporting Q2 results including: VZ ($1.27), AXP ($4.41), NEE ($1.08), CHTR ($9.66), and HCA ($7.57).

 

Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings
  • What Is the Bab el-Mandeb and Why Is It a Problem?

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical concerns and mixed tech earnings.

GOOGL earnings were solid but the company boosted capex spending plans, increasing concerns about future free cash flow and tech stocks are lower in response.

Geopolitically, Houthis attacked two Saudi ships in the Red Sea, further disrupting global oil transit (oil is up 4%).

Today the only notable economic report is Jobless Claims (E: 214K) and that shouldn’t move markets, so focus will remain on geopolitics (any progress at all towards a ceasefire will pressure oil prices and boost stocks) and on the reaction from tech stocks to mixed earnings (if tech stocks stay soft post GOOGL earnings it’ll weigh on the major indices).

Earnings season continues, meanwhile, and some important reports we’re watching today include: INTC ($0.21), NOK ($0.07), AAL ($0.03), BX ($1.32), LMT ($7.32), FCX ($0.60), RTX ($1.66).

 

Sevens Report Technicals

When sector volatility reaches levels only seen around 2000, 2001, and 2009, it deserves more than a passing glance. That’s exactly what we explore in this week’s Sevens Report Technicals.

Beyond the major indices, we examine where money is rotating beneath the surface, why Value continues to outperform Growth, how Treasury, credit, and volatility markets are either confirming or challenging the equity narrative, and what those signals could mean for portfolio positioning.

If you want to better understand whether this is simply another pullback or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in market leadership, click here to learn more about this week’s Technicals report and see why advisors rely on it to stay one step ahead.

 

Tech Decline Part Two: Staying Long With Less Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part Two: Ways to Stay Long Tech But Reduce AI Infrastructure

Futures are in the red as oil prices hit six-week highs overnight (WTI topped $88/barrel) amid ongoing geopolitical angst surrounding the U.S.-Iran war, but global equities are stabilizing as the fear bid in energy is beginning to show signs of near-term exhaustion.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell -0.2% to 2.6% vs. (E) 2.7% Y/Y while Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% Y/Y, the latest evidence that global inflation pressures have potentially peaked.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak (pre-July meeting blackout period) but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on longer-term inflation expectations and potentially impact equities (the stronger the demand for the bonds, the better).

The primary focus of today’s session will remain the fluid geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (any signs of a ceasefire deal on the table will be a positive) and the Q2 earnings season which remains in full swing with GEV ($3.16), T ($0.59), PM ($2.04), TSLA ($0.53), GOOGL ($2.87), TXN ($1.91), and LUV ($0.52) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

Futures are higher as global tech shares rebound amid easing geopolitical fears with focus shifting to key tech/semiconductor earnings looming.

Economically, the U.K. Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% vs. (E) 5.0% while the German ZEW Survey’s Economic Sentiment figure jumped 8.3 points to 26.3 vs. (E) 18.0 helping shore up global growth estimates.

There are no notable economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak, however there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

The quiet macro calendar will leave trader focus on earnings with HAL ($0.54), GM ($3.13), SCHW ($1.53), MMM ($2.27), ALK ($-0.97), COF ($4.88), and IBKR ($0.63) all due to report quarterly results today.

 

Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Earnings This Week
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Updates

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines despite further escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

Oil prices hit $90/bbl overnight on continued escalation between the U.S. and Iran but pulled back and are flat after both sides reiterated they are still open to negotiations.

Economically, there was more positive inflation data as German PPI fell more than expected (-0.3% vs. (E) -0.2%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but focus will remain on geopolitics and any progress (at all) on a new ceasefire agreement will be a positive for stocks.

On earnings, this week is an important one although most of the major reports come later this week.  Some results we’re watching today include: DPZ ($4.09), AMC ($-0.01), STLD ($3.66).

 

What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

Futures are sharply lower as the selling in tech continued overnight and that is dragging the entire market lower.

Nothing especially “negative” happened overnight but the reality is it’s been a tough week for tech (ASML and TSM earnings weren’t good enough and IBM was bad) and given elevated valuations, it’s triggering intense selling.

Geopolitically, Iran and the U.S. continued to trade strikes but the conflict did not materially escalate.

Focus today will stay on economics and the most important report is the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, and if they decline solidly that should pressure yields and help support this market.  Away from inflation we also get Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.3) and the stronger those reports, the better.

Earnings season also continues with a focus today on regional banks including: RF ($0.64), TFC ($1.08), FITB ($0.98), TRV ($5.16).

 

Tom Essaye Interview on Yahoo Finance

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It’s definitely been a surprise, Says Tom Essaye

June CPI sparks debate over the Fed’s next move on interest rates

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi, Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye discuss the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and what it means for the outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the path forwasaysrd for interest rates.

It’s definitely been a surprise. He has definitely come out more hawkish than I think people have thought in his tone. But, you know, we also have to focus on what the Fed does and if we cut through kind of the very short statement and some of his commentary, the Fed really didn’t do and exactly what we thought they were going to do and they’re most likely going to do in July, what we think they’re going to do, which is nothing.

So certainly, I think that he is trying to use a little bit of a hawkish tone to help the market do some work for him on rates and to pressure inflation. But while the CPI print was positive, the market’s always what have you done for me lately, right?

And so now we’re looking at oil higher and even if inflation peaked in June or in May, which it probably did for the year, it still has to decline further to take rate hikes off the table for later in 2026. We’ve got to see some more continuation of these numbers in the coming months.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

Futures are slightly lower following disappointing tech earnings and more strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted “not good enough” earnings and the stock is down –4% pre-market and that’s weighing on futures.

Focus today will stay on economic data, the Fed and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports are, in order of importance:   Retail Sales (E: -0.3%), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 220K).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers including Logan (12:30 p.m. ET), Schmid (1:25 p.m. ET) and  Jefferson (7:00 p.m. ET) although given the Warsh and Williams comments yesterday, these speakers will need to be very hawkish or dovish to move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and key reports today include: UNH ($4.87), TSM ($3.87), GE ($1.86), ABT ($1.28), NFLX ($0.79), ISRG ($2.50), AA ($2.33).

 

Alpha Webinar Today at 1:30 p.m. ET: Where the AI Trade Goes Next

AI remains one of the most important investment themes in this market, but it’s no longer enough to simply be “bullish AI.” Leadership within the trade is changing, performance is becoming much more selective, and the next winners may look very different from the last winners.

In today’s Alpha Webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll explain how the AI trade is evolving, identify the groups we believe are best positioned for the next phase of the cycle, discuss the biggest risks investors should be watching, and outline what all of this means for portfolios over the coming months.

If AI is an important part of your investment process, join us this afternoon. Click here to register.

Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?
  • Takeaways From the “Cool” June CPI Report

Futures are tentatively higher with tech stocks leading thanks to strong quarterly earnings from AI-sensitive ASML (a major global producer of chip-making components) overnight, rekindling a sense of AI-enthusiasm while geopolitical uncertainty continues to simmer.

Economically, Chinese data was mixed as Retail Sales and Industrial Production beat, but GDP and Fixed Asset Investment missed, sending mixed signals about Chinese growth.

Looking into today’s session, the second critical inflation report of the week is due out before the open: PPI (E: -0.1% m/m, 6.2% y/y) as is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8.6). Investors will be looking for more signs of cooling inflation and stability in the manufacturing sector in order for stocks to continue higher today.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers today including: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET), Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET), Cook (1:00 p.m. ET), and Musalem (6:30 p.m. ET). focus will be on Warsh who will continue with his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Capitol Hill today (the less-hawkish, the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway today with JNJ ($2.85), PGR ($4.58), BLK ($12.72), MS ($2.89), UAL ($1.89), and JBHT ($1.71) all due to deliver quarterly results over the course of the day. Earnings expectations are high leaving limited room for disappointment.

 

Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

Futures are flat and bonds are steady despite a continued rise in oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran with focus on control of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey firmed to 97.4 vs. (E) 95.6 in June.

Today is a busy and important day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

The key economic report today is CPI and expectations are as follows: -0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y, Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  Put simply, an in-line to better than expected number should pressure yields and help stocks while a “hot” number will push the 10-year yield towards a new YTD high (and pressure stocks).

On the Fed front, the key event is Chair Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET) but there are several other speakers including Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), Cook (1:30 p.m. ET) and Bowman (2:55 p.m. ET).  The less concerned they are about inflation, the better (especially Warsh).

Finally, on earnings, the banks kick off the Q2 reporting season and key reports today include: JPM ($5.52), GS ($14.47), BAC ($1.13), C ($2.72), WFC ($1.73).