It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • It Can Pay to Think Small(est)

U.S. futures are higher as Treasury yields pull back and a sharp drop in oil prices provides relief for investors.

Oil prices are falling after reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators discussed a phased approach to ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, the BoJ Core CPI rose 1.8% y/y vs. (E) 1.5%, while German GfK Consumer Climate fell to -30.6 vs. (E) -27.1.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K), while markets will continue to watch Treasury yields and oil prices for signs of easing inflation pressure.

Finally, two Fed speakers are speaking today: Schmid (9:20 a.m. ET) and Hammack (2:00 p.m. ET).

 

Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?
  • Understanding Why a Diesel Export Ban Won’t Work

Futures are lower as rising Treasury yields continue to pressure stocks, with Nasdaq futures down over 1%.

Oil prices are higher as renewed Middle East tensions raise concerns about a broader conflict.

Economically, the German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in at 89.9 vs. (E) 89.1.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K). The Treasury will hold a 4- & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (8:50 a.m. ET), and Paulson (10:10 a.m. ET), while notable earnings include COST ($6.48), DRI ($2.06), SNX ($4.46), and BB ($0.03).

 

Q3 Quarterly Letter: How Are You Explaining This Quarter to Clients?

The Fed is raising rates again. The 10-year Treasury has crossed 5%. Oil is sitting around $100. War, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are back in focus, while questions about AI and market valuations haven’t gone anywhere.

There is a lot to explain, and writing a thoughtful quarterly client letter from scratch can take hours.

Our Q3 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter comes out next week. We do the research and writing and deliver it to you as an editable Word document. Add your branding, change our language, insert your own views and send it through compliance.

We do the heavy lifting. You make it yours.

Learn More About Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

 

The Trend In Technology and Ai Stocks Appears Technically Strong

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Signals the AI Stock Rally Could Continue Into Year End

Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report highlighted opportunities within the Magnificent Seven, software, and chip maker names

“The trend in technology and Al stocks appears technically strong going into the fall,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 22nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Record High Diesel Prices Matter to Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Record High Diesel Prices Matter to Markets

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as markets await actual confirmation of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.

Economically, the flash PMIs were mixed as the EU flash composite PMI was strong (53.1 vs. (E) 51.6) while the UK reading missed estimates (51.7 vs. (E) 52.2).

Today focus will remain first on geopolitics and to spur a further rally, we will need to see actual confirmation of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran (likely a temporary reopening of Hormuz or ceasefire including the Houthis).

Outside of geopolitics, we get our first big economic reports of the month via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.8) and Flash Services PMI (E: 56.0).  The key here is “Goldilocks” data that meets expectations but isn’t so strong that it argues for more rate hikes.  Speaking of rate hikes, we also have two Fed speakers today, Barr (10:05 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (12:00 p.m. ET) and if they’re hawkish it should support yields.

 

What Would Make the UN and Trump/XI Meetings Bullish Catalysts?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Make the UN and Trump/XI Meetings Bullish Catalysts?

Futures are little changed despite a further drop in oil as markets await potential diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

Oil dropped another 2% overnight on a Kyodo news article that stated Iran offered to fully reopen Hormuz for seven days as a first step towards de-escalation, although that has not been confirmed by the U.S. or Iran.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Eurozone Consumer Confidence and it slightly missed estimates (-16.8 vs. (E) -15.5).

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally.

Beyond geopolitics, there are no notable economic reports today but there are several Fed speakers, the most important of them being Williams at 10:05 a.m. ET.  If Williams is a bit dovish, that should help stocks rally.  Other Fed speakers today include Jefferson (10:20 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET).

 

Instead We Got More Uncertainty – Tom Essaye Quoted on AOL.com

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Stocks are in recovery mode after the Fed’s first rate hike in years rattled markets

“Markets were hoping for clarity on rate hikes from the Fed on Wednesday, but instead we got more uncertainty — and that is the underlying reason why stocks (and bonds) dropped after Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, in a client note on Thursday.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on AOL.com on September 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can We Break the High Oil/High Yields/Lower Stocks Cycle?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Sept. Flash PMIs are the Highlight

Futures are moderately higher on lower oil and lower yields as investors are optimistic this week’s U.N. General Assembly will yield some progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

Geopolitical news over the weekend was actually negative as the Houthis continued to attack Saudi Arabia while the U.S. considered air strikes on the Houthis (which would have further escalated regional tensions).  But, the U.S. optimism is offsetting those negative headlines.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there is one economic report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.08), but barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on geopolitical headlines and any that confirm this optimism about the UN General Assembly yielding progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire will push oil and yields lower and stocks higher.

 

A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

Futures are higher, led by tech, as oil prices continue to fall on easing supply concerns despite fresh Houthi strikes.

Oil prices are retreating as markets look past the latest strikes and focus on improving supply prospects.

Economically, German PPI rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.6% while UK retail sales rose 0.5% m/m vs. (E) -0.2%.

Today, there are two pieces of economic data to watch including Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%), and two Fed speakers, Bowman (9:30 a.m. ET) and Schmid (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration, so volumes and volatility may be higher than normal into the close.

 

Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

Futures are sharply higher as oil prices fall and Treasury yields retreat following yesterday’s Fed-driven selloff.

Oil prices are lower as Saudi Arabia expects to restore half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days and full flows within six weeks, easing concerns over global crude supplies.

Economically, Eurozone HICP eased to 3.2% y/y vs. (E) 3.3%, while Core HICP met estimates at 2.4%.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Philly Fed (E: 32.6) for additional insight into the economy following yesterday’s Fed decision. Solid economic data without renewed pressure on yields would help extend this morning’s rebound.

Finally, Housing Starts (E: 1.315M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.4%) are also due. The Treasury will auction 4- & 8-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 10-Yr TIPS at 1:00 p.m. ET. There are no Fed speakers or notable earnings reports today.

 

Sevens Report Technicals: Is This a Rebound… or Another Rally Not to Trust?

Long-term Treasury yields have surged, crude oil has jumped again, and the S&P 500 is approaching an important support area. Short-term conditions are increasingly oversold, raising the odds of a rebound… but a bounce is not the same thing as a durable rally.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals examines the evidence that would signal demand has truly returned, including breadth, leadership, momentum, and key support levels. It also looks at a growing portfolio risk: the unintended duration exposure created by rising long-term rates, which can extend well beyond bonds into rate-sensitive equities and traditionally defensive sectors.

Click here to see what the charts are telling us… and what needs to happen next.

What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market
  • Fed Day

Futures are modestly higher on a bounce ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision, following a quiet night of news.

Geopolitically there were no new negative headlines overnight and that lack of more bad news is prompting a mild bounce in oil (Brent crude down 1%).

Economic data was solid overnight as UK CPI met expectations (core CPI 2.6% y/y) while Euro Zone Industrial Production beat estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) -0.5% m/m).

Focus today will be on the Fed and the best case for markets is a rate hike with a “one or two hikes and done” message.  Outside of the Fed, geopolitics stay important and any positive headlines (again, even in tone) will likely cause a drop in oil/rates and help lift stocks.  Finally, we also get August Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and markets will want to see consumer spending holding up despite growing price headlines.