Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

Applied Materials (AMAT) posted strong earnings but, like CSCO, they weren’t as good as hoped for and the stocks is lower pre-market (down 6%) and that is a mild headwind on futures.

Economically, the only notable number was Q2 EU flash GDP which met expectations at 0.4% q/q.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2) and Five- Year Inflation Expectations: (E: 3.3%).  The “best” case for stocks is for solid (but not spectacular) retail sales and five-year inflation expectations that decline closer to 3.0%, as that will reinforce solid growth and continue this week’s trend of easing inflation pressure.

 

Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

Futures are slightly higher despite post earnings selling in AI linked tech stocks, as lower oil boosts futures.

CSCO earnings weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down 6% pre-market, although it’s not weighing on the rest of the market.

There was no discernable progress on U.S./Iran peace talks but oil dropped 1% overnight on falling fears of escalation.

Today focus will remain on inflation and the economy via PPI  (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.9% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 203K).  The lower PPI and the closer jobless claims are to 200k, the better for markets (it’d be a Goldilocks reading). We also have one Fed speaker today, Barkin (8:40 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, tech results continue and today’s key report is AMAT ($3.38).

 

August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • The SPX-VIX Ratio Has Entered Dangerous Territory

Futures are higher, led by tech after SMCI was the latest AI infrastructure name to post blowout quarterly earnings after the close yesterday (shares up 9%+ pre-market), rekindling AI industry optimism ahead of the July CPI release.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.8% y/y in July, unchanged from June, helping shore up hopes that inflation pressures have peaked this summer.

Today, the market’s primary focus will be on the July U.S. CPI data due out ahead of the open: (E) 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y, Core CPI (E) 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be more widely watched and has the potential to move markets (the stronger the demand the better, especially in the wake of the CPI release).

Finally, with earnings having a positive impact on the tape this morning quarterly results from NBIS ($-0.67), CSCO ($0.99), and COHR ($1.43) will all be closely monitored as AI optimism has begun to pickup again and buoy the broader equity markets this week. Any material disappointments have the potential to reverse the pre-market bid and send stocks lower as sentiment remains fragile right now.

 

August Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Market Multiple Table – Enough Positives to Continue to Support Elevated Multiples

Futures are steady this morning amid mostly quiet news flow as focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s CPI release.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, topping estimates calling for 97.3.

Tomorrow’s CPI release will be the most important economic report for the week but there is one release that could impact markets today: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million) due out shortly after the opening bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (the latter will be more closely watched as a “tell” regarding Fed policy rate expectations).

Finally, earnings season continues today and investors will want to see more robust top and bottom line results as well as strong forward guidance with SE ($0.78), CAH ($2.42), ONON ($0.38), SMCI ($0.56), CRWV ($-1.67), and LITE ($2.62) all reporting today.

 

Putting New Highs in the Right Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New Highs in the Right Context
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the “Chase” Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation is Key This Week (CPI on Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher despite no progress on the Strait of Hormuz reopening or a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

A ship was attacked over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz and there are no more details on an Iran/Oman agreement on the Strait, so traffic remains effectively halted.

However, there appears to be no appetite from the U.S. to resume air strikes, so the lack of progress isn’t a negative for markets and oil prices are only up modestly (a bit over 1%).

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitics and any details that imply increased Strait of Hormuz transit will pressure oil and help support stocks.

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Equity Risk Premium Part 2: Index Deep Dive

Futures are slightly higher following a night of generally solid earnings and no geopolitical surprises.

Earnings were good in aggregate overnight (MCHP, TWLO, TEAM all beat) and that’s helping futures to rally slightly.

Geopolitically, markets are still awaiting the details on a Hormuz deal, but fears of escalation remain low.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and estimates are as follows:  88K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate and 3.5% Wage Growth.  An in-line to slightly better than expected report with stable unemployment and wage growth is the best-case scenario for stocks, as it implies strong labor market but no additional inflation risk. If we get that outcome, it should help stocks rally.

The other notable events today are Consumer Credit (E: $10.5B) one Fed speaker, Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

 

Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Too Hot Worse than Too Cold)

Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings.

Tech earnings disappointed overnight (especially memory companies WDC and SNDK) and that’s weighing on tech stocks pre-open, but not the broader market.

Economically, EU data was mixed as German Manufacturers Orders beat expectations while EU Retail Sales missed.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and specifically the details around a Strait of Hormuz passage agreement.  Economically, there are two notable economic reports,  Jobless Claims (E: 201K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 0.7%, 2.2%) and in-line numbers will help to support the market (that’d be more Goldilocks data).

On the Fed, we do have one speaker today, Musalem (5:30 p.m. ET), but he’s after the close and won’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but there are still some notable reports today including:  COP ($2.96), DDOG ($0.13), RGTI ($-0.05).

 

Where Is the Market Pointing Next?

The market rarely rings a bell before an important move. More often, it leaves clues through price action, breadth, momentum, and leadership beneath the surface.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals brings those signals together into a disciplined framework designed to help advisors identify where risks are building, where leadership is changing, and which levels matter most.

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If you want a deeper, chart-based perspective to complement the daily Sevens Report, click below to read more.

Sevens Report Technicals

 

Did Situational Awareness and Earnings Eliminate Tech Concerns?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Situational Awareness and Earnings Eliminate Tech Concerns?
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Another Goldilocks Labor Report

Futures are mostly higher as markets absorb disappointing guidance from AMD and SPCX amid mixed global economic data overnight with persistent optimism for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal capping oil prices and supporting bonds.

Economic data was mixed overnight as China’s Services PMI plunged from 54.1 to 50.4 vs. (E) 53.9 in July, however the EU Composite PMI firmed a full 2 points to 52.0 vs. (E) 51.9 last month, helping tamp down growth worries in the Eurozone.

Today, trader focus will be on economic data early with the July ADP Employment Report (E: 75K) and ISM Services Index (E: 54.5) both due to be released by mid-morning.

There is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, and the results of the auction have the potential to shed light on the bond market’s outlook for Fed policy, which could ultimately impact the broader equity market leading into the afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Cook (4:05 p.m. ET) and Daly (8:35 p.m. ET), but both are not until well after the closing bell.

Finally, earnings continues with notable companies reporting today including LLY ($6.71), SHOP ($0.28), UBER ($0.83), DIS ($1.88), SNDK ($33.28), WDC ($3.24), and MELI ($8.69). As has been the case, investors are demanding to see very robust results in order to reward companies given the current high multiple market environment.

 

Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways – U.S. Factory Sector Growth Remains Strong

Futures are higher with tech leading as PLTR reported very strong quarterly earnings after the close yesterday with revenue surging 93% which is bolstering the long-AI trade and pushing S&P 500 futures towards record highs.

There were no market moving economic reports or noteworthy geopolitical news overnight leaving trader focus on looming U.S. labor market data and earnings.

Today, there are three economic reports to watch including Factory Orders (E: 0.4%), JOLTS (E: 7.35 million), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-73.0B). The main focus with be JOLTS as U.S. labor market resilience is becoming a key pillar supporting stocks in H2’26.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week and a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries roiled markets last week as yields surged on the long end, so if the auctions are weak, the results could prove to be an unexpected source of volatility today.

Turning to earnings, the quarterly reporting season continues today with CAT ($6.25), PFE ($0.68), MCD ($3.32), BP ($1.98), AMD ($1.35), SPCX ($-0.26), and ANET ($0.80) all due to release results, and the stronger the better for stocks.

 

More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Economic Data and Falling Geopolitical Tensions Push Yields Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports this Week.

Futures are modestly higher on a drop in oil prices as President Trump announced over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran were again close to a ceasefire agreement.

On Saturday President Trump called off the threatened strikes on Iran, citing progress towards a ceasefire and oil is down 5% on the news.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs generally met expectations and were both above 50 (51.9).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 54.0) and, like all reports this week, investors will want to see a Goldilocks reading of 1) Solid headline growth (so comfortably above 50) and 2) Stability in the price index (so no big jump).

On earnings, the peak of the Q2 season has passed but there are still important reports to watch.  Notable earnings today include: MAR ($3.06), PLTR ($0.28) and ON ($0.72).