Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech Is Weak?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech is Weak?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Rebound? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday Are Key)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The First Look at November Data (Flash PMIs on Friday)

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rebound and following a quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was positive news as the White House confirmed reduced tariffs on numerous food products as it aims to boost affordability.

Economically, the only notable report was Italian CPI which rose 1.3%, as expected.

Today we have the first economic report for November, Empire Manufacturing (6.10), and numerous Fed speakers.  Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:35 p.m. ET) are the most important speakers today but we will also hear from Jefferson (9:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and Logan (7:55 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if Empire manufacturing is stable and the tone of Fed speak today is open to a December cut (especially from Williams and Waller) that should help extend Friday’s rebound.

 

Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

Futures are moderately lower as markets extend Thursday’s selloff mostly on momentum and following some underwhelming economic data.

Chinese economic data was mixed as retail sales (2.9% vs. (E) 2.7%) beat estimates while Industrial Production (4.9% vs. (E) 5.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-1.7% vs. (E) 0.9%) missed expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Schmid (10:05 a.m. ET), Logan (2:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (9:20 a.m. ET, 3:20 p.m. ET).  If they’re tone is hawkish towards a December rate cut (as the commentary has been this week from multiple Fed officials) that will further pressure stocks.

 

What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

Futures are slightly lower despite strong CSCO earnings and the government officially reopening.

CSCO posted solid results and the stock is up 6% pre-market but the recent AI skepticism remains in place and the earnings aren’t keying a broader rally.

Politically, the government shutdown officially ended, removing what was an increasing economic headwind.

There are no economic reports today (now that the government is reopened, we will await a new schedule of backlogged releases) but there are several Fed speakers:  Daly (8:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (10:30 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET) and Hammack (12:20 p.m. ET).  If their commentary further pushes back on expectations for a December rate cut, that will pressure stocks.

 

November MMT Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • November MMT Chart
  • Weekly ADP Jobs Report Takeaways

Futures are higher as traders anticipate a successful House vote to reopen the government today with tech shares leading after AMD’s well-received “analyst-day” (stock up ~5% pre-market).

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.3% y/y in October which is helping ease worries about a resurgence in inflation.

There are no notable economic reports in the U.S. today but there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equities and other risk assets.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers today including: Williams (9:20 a.m. ET), Paulson (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (10:20 a.m. ET), and Bostic (12:15 p.m. ET.); the more dovish the tone (without sounding too cautious on the economy) the better for stocks right now.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable companies reporting today including CSCO ($0.80) and CRCL ($0.17), and the stronger the results, the better for the bull case for stocks here.

New Sevens Report Special Report Released Today: How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?

The latest Sevens Report Special Report, “How Bad is the U.S. Debt Situation,” is now available for download from the www.sevensreport.com website.

Those who have pre-ordered the Report were sent download instructions when they ordered and they will be re-sent later this morning, just to be thorough.

Like previous Sevens Report Special Reports, this report will both be branded as Sevens Report Research and as a “white labeled” version, allowing you to brand this robust and in-depth report as your own using your firm’s logo and other marketing materials. Both versions are included with a purchase.

To learn more or to order this special report, please click this link.

 

November Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – November Update

Futures are moderately lower with big tech underperforming after yesterday’s largest one day gain in months as traders assess the prospects of the government reopening.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey’s Current Conditions rose to -78.7 vs. (E) -78.0 and the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9%. Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 vs. (E) 98.3.

Looking ahead to today’s session, investors are likely going to be focused on Washington and the next steps in the process for the federal government to reopen in the days ahead however there is also one (new) economic report due out ahead of the bell: The ADP Weekly Employment Change (8:15 a.m. ET) and one Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (10:25 a.m. ET).

With just two noteworthy earnings releases due out today: SE ($0.75) and OKLO ($-0.13) it is likely to be a mostly quiet session as traders await clarity on the status of the government reopening process with the potential for a modest pullback after yesterday’s big rally.

 

Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings Help the Tech/AI Stocks Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: What Will Delayed Data Tell Us (Growth Stable, or Not?)

Futures are moderately higher as the Senate voted to, effectively, end the government shutdown later this week.

The Senate passed an important procedural vote late Sunday night that paved the way for the government to reopen later this week, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history and removing an increasing economic headwind.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

There are no economic reports today so focus will be on Fed speak (Daly at 8:30 a.m. ET), and earnings, as AI darling CRWV ($-0.39) reports after the close (and the stronger the report, the better for tech and the market).

Important Technical Levels to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Important Technical Levels to Watch

Futures are modestly lower mostly on momentum from Thursday’s declines and after hopes for the government to reopen today faded overnight.

There were hopes late Thursday that the government could reopen today and there may be a vote in the Senate, although passage is not expected at this time.

Economically, Chinese exports fell –1.1% vs. (E) 2.9%.

Focus today will be on inflation expectations via the one-year and five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (E: 3.4%).  Put simply, the lower these numbers, the better as they will make a December rate cut incrementally more likely.

On the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Jefferson (7:00 a.m. ET) and Miran (3:00 p.m. ET) although they shouldn’t move markets.

 

New Sevens Report Special Report Coming Next Wednesday: How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?

Interest on our next special Report, “How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?” has been high and we are looking forward to its release on Wednesday.

With the SCOTUS IEEPA tariff decision looming, U.S. fiscal problems could be thrust back to the forefront of the markets  and this special report can not only help explain the situation and put it in proper context, but also differentiate you from the competition by showing you’re focused on both the near-term and long-term risks to clients’ wealth.

Like previous Sevens Report Special Reports, this report will both be branded as Sevens Report Research and as a “white labeled” version, allowing you to brand this robust and in-depth report as your own using your firm’s logo and other marketing materials. Both versions are included with a purchase.

 

Why the Supreme Court Tariff Decision Might Not Be a Bullish Catalyst

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Supreme Court Tariff Decision Might Not Be a Bullish Catalyst

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news amidst fading hopes for an end to the shutdown this week.

Commentary overnight implied the shutdown will not end this week, furthering the economic impact.

Economically, German Industrial Production and EU Retail Sales both modestly missed estimates.

Today we do get one notable employment report, Challenger Job Cuts (Prior: 55k) and the lower that number, the better as it would imply a more stable labor market.

Turning to the Fed, there are numerous speakers today, the most important of which are Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET).  If they are supportive of a December rate cut, that should help stocks as they are part of Fed leadership (and Waller is in the running to be the next Fed Chair).  Other Fed speakers include: Barr (11:00 a.m. ET) , Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET), Paulson (4:30 p.m. ET) and Musalem (5:30 p.m. ET).

 

Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday

Futures are weaker this morning but off session lows as investors digest underwhelming earnings from AI-sensitive SMCI and AMD ahead of key economic data today.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Final Composite PMI firmed to 52.5 vs. (E) 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September which is helping to ease concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 28K), Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.8), and ISM Services PMI (E: 51.0) all due to be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 4-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations for a December rate cut.

Earnings season continues as well today with notable companies reporting including: NVO ($0.77), MCD ($3.35), HUM ($2.91), HOOD ($0.51), APP ($2.37), IONQ ($-0.44), and QCOM ($2.33).

 

New Sevens Report Special Report Coming Next Wednesday: How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?

We’re continuing our Sevens Report Special Report series, and in the latest release, we’ll be taking an in-depth look at one of the most important, and popular, topics among investors: The U.S. debt situation.

We’ve all heard the warnings: The U.S. debt situation is unsustainable and a long-term threat to the markets and the economy. Well, your clients and prospects have heard these warnings too, so we wanted to produce an in-depth special report that takes an independent, fact-based look at the U.S. debt situation.

In this Sevens Report Special Report we: 1) Take a comprehensive look at the U.S. $37.4 trillion debt burden, 2) Explore historical comparisons to rising and declining empires, 3) Examine the implications of the looming $9.2 trillion “maturity wall” and 4) Evaluate threats to dollar dominance.

Like previous Sevens Report Special Reports, this report will both be branded as Sevens Report Research and as a “white labeled” version, allowing you to brand this robust and in-depth report as your own using your firm’s logo and other marketing materials. Both versions are included with a purchase.

Bottom line, the U.S. debt situation will be a major long-term influence on markets and investor portfolios, and the level of interest in U.S. debt, especially among more sophisticated investors, is high.

This special report can not only help explain the situation and put it in proper context, but also differentiate you from the competition by showing you’re focused on both the near-term and long-term risks to clients’ wealth. Please email info@sevensreport.com to learn more or to pre-order this special report.

 

Putting the Tech Sector Dominance in Real Numbers

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the Tech Sector Dominance in Real Numbers
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Markets are risk-off this morning with stock futures down ~1% while bonds are bid thanks to the combination of cautious comments from banking executives at a global conference overnight and disappointing PLTR earnings (shares down 7%+ in premarket trade).

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of economic releases to watch today including: International Trade in Goods (E: $-64.1B), Factory Orders (E: 0.2%), and JOLTS (E: 7.3 million) assuming none are delayed due to the government shutdown.

There is one Fed speaker on the calendar as well as Bowman began speaking at 6:35 a.m. ET at the Santander International Banking Conference in Spain.

Finally, we will get earnings and guidance figures from more important multi-national companies today, including UBER ($0.67), SPOT ($1.87), AMD ($0.97), SMCI ($0.19), AXON ($0.07), AMGN ($5.00), and PFE ($0.66), and based on the risk-off money flows related to the soft PLTR release that is weighing on equities today, investors will want to see better numbers, especially out of tech-focused firms.