What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the Copper-Gold Ratio Telling Us About This Market?

Futures are sharply lower as the selling in tech continued overnight and that is dragging the entire market lower.

Nothing especially “negative” happened overnight but the reality is it’s been a tough week for tech (ASML and TSM earnings weren’t good enough and IBM was bad) and given elevated valuations, it’s triggering intense selling.

Geopolitically, Iran and the U.S. continued to trade strikes but the conflict did not materially escalate.

Focus today will stay on economics and the most important report is the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, and if they decline solidly that should pressure yields and help support this market.  Away from inflation we also get Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.3) and the stronger those reports, the better.

Earnings season also continues with a focus today on regional banks including: RF ($0.64), TFC ($1.08), FITB ($0.98), TRV ($5.16).

 

Tom Essaye Interview on Yahoo Finance

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It’s definitely been a surprise, Says Tom Essaye

June CPI sparks debate over the Fed’s next move on interest rates

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi, Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye discuss the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and what it means for the outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the path forwasaysrd for interest rates.

It’s definitely been a surprise. He has definitely come out more hawkish than I think people have thought in his tone. But, you know, we also have to focus on what the Fed does and if we cut through kind of the very short statement and some of his commentary, the Fed really didn’t do and exactly what we thought they were going to do and they’re most likely going to do in July, what we think they’re going to do, which is nothing.

So certainly, I think that he is trying to use a little bit of a hawkish tone to help the market do some work for him on rates and to pressure inflation. But while the CPI print was positive, the market’s always what have you done for me lately, right?

And so now we’re looking at oil higher and even if inflation peaked in June or in May, which it probably did for the year, it still has to decline further to take rate hikes off the table for later in 2026. We’ve got to see some more continuation of these numbers in the coming months.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

Futures are slightly lower following disappointing tech earnings and more strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted “not good enough” earnings and the stock is down –4% pre-market and that’s weighing on futures.

Focus today will stay on economic data, the Fed and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports are, in order of importance:   Retail Sales (E: -0.3%), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 220K).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers including Logan (12:30 p.m. ET), Schmid (1:25 p.m. ET) and  Jefferson (7:00 p.m. ET) although given the Warsh and Williams comments yesterday, these speakers will need to be very hawkish or dovish to move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and key reports today include: UNH ($4.87), TSM ($3.87), GE ($1.86), ABT ($1.28), NFLX ($0.79), ISRG ($2.50), AA ($2.33).

 

Alpha Webinar Today at 1:30 p.m. ET: Where the AI Trade Goes Next

AI remains one of the most important investment themes in this market, but it’s no longer enough to simply be “bullish AI.” Leadership within the trade is changing, performance is becoming much more selective, and the next winners may look very different from the last winners.

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If AI is an important part of your investment process, join us this afternoon. Click here to register.

Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Bad IBM Earnings a Warning for Broader Tech?
  • Takeaways From the “Cool” June CPI Report

Futures are tentatively higher with tech stocks leading thanks to strong quarterly earnings from AI-sensitive ASML (a major global producer of chip-making components) overnight, rekindling a sense of AI-enthusiasm while geopolitical uncertainty continues to simmer.

Economically, Chinese data was mixed as Retail Sales and Industrial Production beat, but GDP and Fixed Asset Investment missed, sending mixed signals about Chinese growth.

Looking into today’s session, the second critical inflation report of the week is due out before the open: PPI (E: -0.1% m/m, 6.2% y/y) as is the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8.6). Investors will be looking for more signs of cooling inflation and stability in the manufacturing sector in order for stocks to continue higher today.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers today including: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET), Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET), Cook (1:00 p.m. ET), and Musalem (6:30 p.m. ET). focus will be on Warsh who will continue with his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Capitol Hill today (the less-hawkish, the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway today with JNJ ($2.85), PGR ($4.58), BLK ($12.72), MS ($2.89), UAL ($1.89), and JBHT ($1.71) all due to deliver quarterly results over the course of the day. Earnings expectations are high leaving limited room for disappointment.

 

Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

Futures are flat and bonds are steady despite a continued rise in oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran with focus on control of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey firmed to 97.4 vs. (E) 95.6 in June.

Today is a busy and important day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

The key economic report today is CPI and expectations are as follows: -0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y, Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  Put simply, an in-line to better than expected number should pressure yields and help stocks while a “hot” number will push the 10-year yield towards a new YTD high (and pressure stocks).

On the Fed front, the key event is Chair Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET) but there are several other speakers including Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), Cook (1:30 p.m. ET) and Bowman (2:55 p.m. ET).  The less concerned they are about inflation, the better (especially Warsh).

Finally, on earnings, the banks kick off the Q2 reporting season and key reports today include: JPM ($5.52), GS ($14.47), BAC ($1.13), C ($2.72), WFC ($1.73).

 

Three Tests for the Rally This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Tests for the Rally This Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Critical Week for Inflation, AI and the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus (and the Numbers Need to be Good)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions after escalation of the U.S./Iran conflict over the weekend.

Iran attacked another commercial ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompting some of the most intense attacks from the U.S. since the start of the conflict.

Despite the escalation, however, oil is up a modest 3% and markets still believe both sides seek a ceasefire (which is why the markets aren’t down more on the news).

This is a busy week of data and earnings, but it starts slowly as there are no notable economic reports today and just two Fed speakers (Bowman (5:25 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:30 p.m. ET)) and they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geopolitics and any reports of ceasefire progress will help stocks bounce.

 

Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as efforts are underway to restore the U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There were no direct U.S. attacks on Iran overnight and U.S. officials said the two sides were still working on re-establishing a ceasefire.

Economically, German HICP (their CPI) was the only notable report and it met expectations at 2.4% y/y.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and any progress on reestablishing the U.S./Iran ceasefire will pressure oil and should help boost stocks.  From an economic standpoint, today is quiet but next week is not, as next week has the potential to impact markets in numerous ways (economic data, inflation and earnings).  More on that in Monday’s Report.

 

Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

Futures are slightly higher on reduced geopolitical fears despite another round of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight.

Early on Thursday President Trump stated Iran “called and wants to make a deal” and that’s again boosting ceasefire hopes.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which was better than expectations (1.0% vs. (E) 1.2%).

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (any signs of further de-escalation will be generally positive) but there are also notable economic reports and some Fed speak.  Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 219K) are the highlight and the lower, the better.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million) but that shouldn’t move markets.

Turning to the Fed, there are two speakers today of which Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) is the most important and if he pushes back against rate hikes, that will be a market positive. Logan (1:30 p.m. ET) also speaks but she’s unlikely to move markets.

 

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July MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations (slight hawkish surprise)

Markets are risk-off as equity futures track global shares lower amid a surge in oil prices and rising bond yields on the back of fresh U.S. military strikes against Iran while President Trump deemed the ceasefire a “waste of time.”

There were no market moving economic reports overnight which left market focus on the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today, there is limited U.S. economic data with just the May Consumer Credit release (E: $17.5B) due out in the afternoon.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and it will be important for demand to hold strong (like we saw yesterday with the 52-Week Bill auction) to help steady the bond market and ultimately set stocks up to rebound.

In addition to Consumer Credit, trader focus will be on the June FOMC Meeting Minutes due out at 2:00 p.m. ET as the market looks for potential clues as to when the Fed plans to raise rates this year.

Finally, there are a pair of earnings releases today with HELE (-$0.13) and LEVI ($0.24) reporting quarterly results, but with the Fed Minutes and geopolitical escalations, neither should materially move markets.

 

July Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table: Expected Earnings Growth Supports the Markets, But Valuations Still Stretched
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are lower amid renewed selling pressure in global tech/semiconductor stocks following reports that Iran attacked another cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz overnight which is rekindling geopolitical worries this morning.

Economically, German Industrial Production was strong, rising 0.9% vs. (E) 0.1% in May adding additional upside pressure to global bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade in Goods (E: $-78.7B) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There are no notable earnings releases today, leaving focus on the global tech selloff and bond yields with the Treasury set to hold a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (the lower yields move the better for stocks).