What Would Make the UN and Trump/XI Meetings Bullish Catalysts?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would Make the UN and Trump/XI Meetings Bullish Catalysts?

Futures are little changed despite a further drop in oil as markets await potential diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

Oil dropped another 2% overnight on a Kyodo news article that stated Iran offered to fully reopen Hormuz for seven days as a first step towards de-escalation, although that has not been confirmed by the U.S. or Iran.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Eurozone Consumer Confidence and it slightly missed estimates (-16.8 vs. (E) -15.5).

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and if there’s any confirmation of progress towards a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, look for oil and yields to fall further and for stocks to rally.

Beyond geopolitics, there are no notable economic reports today but there are several Fed speakers, the most important of them being Williams at 10:05 a.m. ET.  If Williams is a bit dovish, that should help stocks rally.  Other Fed speakers today include Jefferson (10:20 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET).

 

Instead We Got More Uncertainty – Tom Essaye Quoted on AOL.com

/in , /by

Stocks are in recovery mode after the Fed’s first rate hike in years rattled markets

“Markets were hoping for clarity on rate hikes from the Fed on Wednesday, but instead we got more uncertainty — and that is the underlying reason why stocks (and bonds) dropped after Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, in a client note on Thursday.

Also, click here to view the full Business Insider article published on AOL.com on September 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can We Break the High Oil/High Yields/Lower Stocks Cycle?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Sept. Flash PMIs are the Highlight

Futures are moderately higher on lower oil and lower yields as investors are optimistic this week’s U.N. General Assembly will yield some progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

Geopolitical news over the weekend was actually negative as the Houthis continued to attack Saudi Arabia while the U.S. considered air strikes on the Houthis (which would have further escalated regional tensions).  But, the U.S. optimism is offsetting those negative headlines.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there is one economic report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.08), but barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on geopolitical headlines and any that confirm this optimism about the UN General Assembly yielding progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire will push oil and yields lower and stocks higher.

 

A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

Futures are higher, led by tech, as oil prices continue to fall on easing supply concerns despite fresh Houthi strikes.

Oil prices are retreating as markets look past the latest strikes and focus on improving supply prospects.

Economically, German PPI rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.6% while UK retail sales rose 0.5% m/m vs. (E) -0.2%.

Today, there are two pieces of economic data to watch including Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%), and two Fed speakers, Bowman (9:30 a.m. ET) and Schmid (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration, so volumes and volatility may be higher than normal into the close.

 

Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

Futures are sharply higher as oil prices fall and Treasury yields retreat following yesterday’s Fed-driven selloff.

Oil prices are lower as Saudi Arabia expects to restore half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days and full flows within six weeks, easing concerns over global crude supplies.

Economically, Eurozone HICP eased to 3.2% y/y vs. (E) 3.3%, while Core HICP met estimates at 2.4%.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Philly Fed (E: 32.6) for additional insight into the economy following yesterday’s Fed decision. Solid economic data without renewed pressure on yields would help extend this morning’s rebound.

Finally, Housing Starts (E: 1.315M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.4%) are also due. The Treasury will auction 4- & 8-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 10-Yr TIPS at 1:00 p.m. ET. There are no Fed speakers or notable earnings reports today.

 

Sevens Report Technicals: Is This a Rebound… or Another Rally Not to Trust?

Long-term Treasury yields have surged, crude oil has jumped again, and the S&P 500 is approaching an important support area. Short-term conditions are increasingly oversold, raising the odds of a rebound… but a bounce is not the same thing as a durable rally.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals examines the evidence that would signal demand has truly returned, including breadth, leadership, momentum, and key support levels. It also looks at a growing portfolio risk: the unintended duration exposure created by rising long-term rates, which can extend well beyond bonds into rate-sensitive equities and traditionally defensive sectors.

Click here to see what the charts are telling us… and what needs to happen next.

What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market
  • Fed Day

Futures are modestly higher on a bounce ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision, following a quiet night of news.

Geopolitically there were no new negative headlines overnight and that lack of more bad news is prompting a mild bounce in oil (Brent crude down 1%).

Economic data was solid overnight as UK CPI met expectations (core CPI 2.6% y/y) while Euro Zone Industrial Production beat estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) -0.5% m/m).

Focus today will be on the Fed and the best case for markets is a rate hike with a “one or two hikes and done” message.  Outside of the Fed, geopolitics stay important and any positive headlines (again, even in tone) will likely cause a drop in oil/rates and help lift stocks.  Finally, we also get August Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and markets will want to see consumer spending holding up despite growing price headlines.

 

FOMC Preview (It’s Not Just About a Rate Hike)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (It’s Not Just About a Rate Hike)

Futures are extending Monday’s losses and are modestly lower as there were no positive headlines in the Mid-East and oil (and yields) rallied further as a result.

Brent crude is up another 1% as there was no improvement in the trifecta of concerns in the Mid-East: Hormuz traffic, Houthis seizing Yemeni coast and the continued shutdown of the Saudi East-West pipeline.

Economic data was mixed as UK unemployment slightly beat while the German ZEW Biz Expectations missed.

Today focus will remain on the Mid-East and any positive headlines (even just in tone) should pressure oil and yields and help stocks lift. However, if there are more negative headlines, expect the opposite: Higher oil, higher yields and even lower stocks.  Outside of geopolitics, we do get the first look at September economic activity via Empire Manufacturing (14.1) and the more Goldilocks the number (solid headline but stable or declining price indices) the better for markets.

 

The Biggest Reason Behind the Pullback

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Biggest Reason Behind the Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview: Ceasefire hopes and the Fed (It’s Potentially a Critical Week)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Decision on Wednesday is the Key

Futures are moderately lower on a rebound in oil prices as tensions in the Gulf worsened over the weekend.

The Gulf states/Iran meeting about Hormuz, which was the main catalyst for Friday’s rally, was postponed while the Houthis continued to seize land on the Red Sea coast and the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut due to damage.

All three events are raising concerns about the supply of oil exiting the Persian Gulf and oil is 2% higher as a result.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will stay on geopolitics. Any hints of progress towards a ceasefire (including scheduling meetings) will be an immediate positive, while any reports of further fighting will push oil and Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

 

Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

Futures are higher as lower oil prices and retreating bond yields support stocks ahead of today’s CPI report.

Geopolitically, reports that Gulf states may meet with Iranian officials next week are easing concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and weighing on oil prices.

Economically, UK monthly GDP rose 0.4% vs. (E) 0.0% in July.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.4% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.2).

Finally, only one notable earnings report is due today, KR ($1.05), so markets will focus primarily on economic data and geopolitics.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can AI Continue to Support This Market?
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

Futures are mixed as investors monitor rising oil prices and ongoing Middle East tensions ahead of key inflation data.

Geopolitically, Iran-backed Houthis reported airstrikes in Yemen, adding to concerns about a broader Middle East conflict.

Economically, German Final CPI met estimates at 0.2% m/m in August.

Today, focus will be on PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y) ahead of Friday’s CPI report. A cooler PPI print would be welcomed by stocks, while a hot print could push yields and oil higher. Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.97M) are also due today.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Notable earnings include ORCL ($1.40), ADBE ($4.86), and M ($0.37).

 

Alpha Webinar: When Does Rising Oil Become a Problem?

Oil prices are moving markets again, but the real question isn’t simply whether crude goes higher—it’s when rising oil becomes a meaningful problem for inflation, bond yields and stocks.

That’s the focus of today’s Sevens Report Alpha webinar, live at 1:30 p.m. ET.

We’ll examine the Strait of Hormuz and actual oil flows, alternative routes for Persian Gulf supply, why diesel markets matter, and, importantly, the oil-price levels that could signal conditions are becoming materially worse—or beginning to improve.

The goal isn’t to predict the next move in crude. It’s to give you a practical framework for understanding when oil is a manageable market risk and when it becomes a sustained headwind for stocks and bonds.

Click here to learn more and join today’s Alpha webinar.