Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Tech Stabilize and the “Rest” of the Market Extend the Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes Wednesday (How Hawkish is the Fed?)

Futures are modestly higher on a continued decline in oil prices and following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Oil prices are down modestly as OPEC+ again boosted production quotas, reminding markets that, away from U.S./Iran tensions, oil supplies are set to rise in the coming years.

Economically, EU data was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates while EU retail sales were in-line.

Focus today will be on economic data via the ISM Services PMI (E: 54.2) and Fed speak from Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and the more Goldilocks the data (solid growth/falling prices) and commentary (pushing back on inflation fears) the better for markets.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • May JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower to start Q3 as traders await key economic data and commentary from Fed Chair Warsh.

Economically, the EU Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.4 but slightly topped estimates of 51.3 while Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) favorably fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.6% y/y.

Today, there are multiple important economic reports to watch as the third quarter begins, including the ADP Employment Report (E: 117K), Jobless Claims (E: 220K), ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.9), and Construction Spending (E: 0.2%).

Additionally, Fed Chair Warsh will speak alongside a panel of global central banking peers beginning just ahead of the bell (9:00 a.m. ET) before the Treasury will hold a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today including GIS ($0.82), FDS ($4.44), and MSM ($1.27).

Markets will be looking for more Goldilocks economic data (particularly stable but not “too hot” labor market numbers), a less hawkish tone from Warsh, and more strong quarterly corporate results in order for the Q2 market rally to persist into Q3.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (June)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (June)

Futures are tentatively higher as semiconductor shares continued to stabilize in Asian trade as Q2 came to an end while investors look ahead to today’s ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

Economically, German Retail Sales rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.1% in May while the Unemployment Rate held at 6.3% vs. (E) 6.4% in June; both reports are helping ease worries about a Eurozone economic slowdown in 2026, supporting risk-on money flows regionally.

Today, there are a handful of economic reports due out in the U.S. including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 2.1%), the Chicago PMI (E: 55.2), Consumer Confidence (E: 94.5), and JOLTS (E: 7.307 million). More resilience in the data (but not “too hot”) will be best for stocks to end the quarter on a positive note.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker with Hammack scheduled to deliver remarks at 10:40 a.m. ET as well as a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (the stronger the demand, the better for stocks and bonds today).

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today with NKE ($0.11), STZ ($3.22), and PRGS ($1.15) all due to report quarterly results.

 

With Inflation and AI Spending, It’s All About Sustainability

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • With Inflation and AI Spending, It’s All About Sustainability
  • Weekly Market Preview: Two of the “Big Three” Economic Reports Out This Week

Futures are modestly higher as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran lift sentiment and support a rebound in tech stocks.

The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to halt strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks. Despite this weekend’s headlines, markets remain focused on the reduced risk of further escalation.

There were no major market-moving economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and any headlines that reduce the chances of renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran should be supportive for stocks. Conversely, any signs the ceasefire is breaking down would likely pressure markets.

Away from geopolitics, there are no economic reports or Fed speakers today. The Treasury will auction 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET, and stronger-than-expected demand should help support stocks as the week begins.

 

Micron Earnings – The Evolution of the AI Trade

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Micron Earnings – The Evolution of the AI Trade

Futures are lower led by tech as a global selloff in chipmakers continues amid AI infrastructure concerns.

South Korea’s KOSPI fell nearly 6% as losses in Samsung and SK Hynix fueled another round of semiconductor selling while reports that OpenAI could delay plans to go public are also weighing on sentiment.

Today focus will be on Trade in Goods (E: -$85.2B), Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.0), and Wholesale Inventories (E: 0.3%). Markets will want stable economic data as investors assess the recent tech-led pullback.

Beyond the data, Fed Governor Kashkari speaks at 11:30 a.m. ET. There are no notable earnings today, leaving markets primarily focused on the tech sector and economic data.

 

New ETFs to Watch (Recent Releases)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs to Watch (Recent Releases)

Futures are moderately higher following blowout Micron earnings and a further decline in oil prices.

Micron (MU) earnings and guidance were much stronger than expected (stock up 17% pre-market) and that’s helping tech and the broader market to rebound.

Oil prices dropped another 1% overnight as insurance rates for Hormuz transit plunged.

Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports are, in order or importance:  Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y), Durable Goods (E: -4.7%) and Jobless Claims (E: 225K).  The best case scenario for stocks, which would further the early rally, would be better than expected Core PCE Price Index that eases inflation/rate hike concerns and solid Durable Goods and jobless claims (signaling still solid growth).

There are also two Fed speakers today, the most important of which is Williams (3:40 p.m. ET) and if he downplays rate hike chances, that would be another positive tailwind on markets.  Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also speaks but after the close (6:30 p.m. ET).

 

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The Real Reason Behind the AI/Tech Selloff

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Real Reason Behind the AI/Tech Selloff
  • Composite PMI Takeaways – A Goldilocks Print
  • How Silver and Copper Prices Suggest the AI Angst Is “Real”

Futures are modestly higher this morning as tech shares show signs of stabilizing (Nasdaq futures up ~0.5%) ahead of notable semiconductor earnings from MU due out this afternoon while oil prices continue to favorably decline.

Economically, the German Ifo Survey’s Business Climate headline rose 0.6 points to 85.6 vs. (E) 85.5 helping ease economic worries triggered by yesterday’s Eurozone PMI release.

Today, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak and just one economic report to watch in the U.S. with New Home Sales (E: 640K) due out shortly after the open.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET; if demand for either is weak, yields could turn higher again which could act as a renewed headwind on equity markets.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases today with PAYX ($1.31), JEF ($1.09) and most importantly MU ($20.81) all due to report quarterly earnings. Given the recent volatility has been concentrated in tech/semis, the market will be looking for strong results and guidance from MU after the close today to help the market continue to stabilize.

 

SpaceX Thoughts: TSLA on Steroids

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • SpaceX Thoughts: TSLA on Steroids

Futures are lower, led by tech (Nasdaq futures down ~3%) as a heavy selloff in Asian chipmakers including in a ~10% drop in the South Korean KOPSI index, is dragging broader equity markets lower amid valuation and capex worries.

Today, focus is likely to be on whether the pre-market selloff in tech stocks accelerates or stabilizes as trading gets underway on Wall Street, however there are also a few noteworthy economic reports to watch, including the Flash Composite PMI (E: 51.2), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 8.0).

There are no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today which will leave fixed income markets primarily focused on the economic data and the 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few important earnings releases due to be released today including: CCL ($0.34), FDX ($5.91), and CBRS (-$0.14).

Regarding the economic data, investors will be looking for “Goldilocks” data with healthy growth and cooling inflation and strong earnings in order for the market to stabilize from the pre-market rout.

 

Market Update: Trading One Source of Uncertainty for Another

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Update: Trading One Source of Uncertainty for Another
  • Weekly Market Preview: Another Test for AI Enthusiasm (Micron Earnings on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: First Real Look at June Economic Growth This Week

Futures are slightly lower on digestion of Thursday’s rebound and some volatile (but not negative) geopolitical headlines over the weekend.

U.S./Iran headlines were volatile over the weekend but we ended it with the ceasefire still in place and negotiations on a nuclear deal ongoing (meeting market expectations).

Geopolitically, UK PM Starmer announced he will resign and that could put more upward pressure on global yields (which isn’t needed right now).

Today there are no economic reports and while Iran headlines will remain plentiful and likely conflicting, it should continue to fade as a market influence as neither side wants to escalate.

For today, that leaves a speech by the Fed’s Waller (9:00 a.m. ET) as the potential market moving event and if he comes out as hawkish or hints at possible rate hikes, that should put at least a mild headwind on stocks.

 

What the Warsh Fed Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Warsh Fed Means for Markets (Hawkishness vs. Uncertainty)

Futures are bouncing solidly as markets further digested new Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference and after the U.S. and Iran signed the ceasefire agreement.

New Fed Chair Warsh injected uncertainty into Fed operations/policy, but there were no substantial changes made yet and that’s helping stocks rebound this morning.

Geopolitically, the U.S. and Iran signed the ceasefire, two days earlier than expected, ending the conflict.

Today focus will return to economic data and the key reports today are:  Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 10.0) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%).  Given rising hawkish Fed concerns, the more Goldilocks the data (solid activity/low prices) the better for markets.

 

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