August Market Multiple Table Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Market Multiple Table – Enough Positives to Continue to Support Elevated Multiples

Futures are steady this morning amid mostly quiet news flow as focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s CPI release.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, topping estimates calling for 97.3.

Tomorrow’s CPI release will be the most important economic report for the week but there is one release that could impact markets today: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million) due out shortly after the opening bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (the latter will be more closely watched as a “tell” regarding Fed policy rate expectations).

Finally, earnings season continues today and investors will want to see more robust top and bottom line results as well as strong forward guidance with SE ($0.78), CAH ($2.42), ONON ($0.38), SMCI ($0.56), CRWV ($-1.67), and LITE ($2.62) all reporting today.

 

Putting New Highs in the Right Context

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New Highs in the Right Context
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the “Chase” Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation is Key This Week (CPI on Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher despite no progress on the Strait of Hormuz reopening or a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

A ship was attacked over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz and there are no more details on an Iran/Oman agreement on the Strait, so traffic remains effectively halted.

However, there appears to be no appetite from the U.S. to resume air strikes, so the lack of progress isn’t a negative for markets and oil prices are only up modestly (a bit over 1%).

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitics and any details that imply increased Strait of Hormuz transit will pressure oil and help support stocks.

 

Jobs Day

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Equity Risk Premium Part 2: Index Deep Dive

Futures are slightly higher following a night of generally solid earnings and no geopolitical surprises.

Earnings were good in aggregate overnight (MCHP, TWLO, TEAM all beat) and that’s helping futures to rally slightly.

Geopolitically, markets are still awaiting the details on a Hormuz deal, but fears of escalation remain low.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and estimates are as follows:  88K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate and 3.5% Wage Growth.  An in-line to slightly better than expected report with stable unemployment and wage growth is the best-case scenario for stocks, as it implies strong labor market but no additional inflation risk. If we get that outcome, it should help stocks rally.

The other notable events today are Consumer Credit (E: $10.5B) one Fed speaker, Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

 

Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Too Hot Worse than Too Cold)

Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings.

Tech earnings disappointed overnight (especially memory companies WDC and SNDK) and that’s weighing on tech stocks pre-open, but not the broader market.

Economically, EU data was mixed as German Manufacturers Orders beat expectations while EU Retail Sales missed.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and specifically the details around a Strait of Hormuz passage agreement.  Economically, there are two notable economic reports,  Jobless Claims (E: 201K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 0.7%, 2.2%) and in-line numbers will help to support the market (that’d be more Goldilocks data).

On the Fed, we do have one speaker today, Musalem (5:30 p.m. ET), but he’s after the close and won’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but there are still some notable reports today including:  COP ($2.96), DDOG ($0.13), RGTI ($-0.05).

 

Where Is the Market Pointing Next?

The market rarely rings a bell before an important move. More often, it leaves clues through price action, breadth, momentum, and leadership beneath the surface.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals brings those signals together into a disciplined framework designed to help advisors identify where risks are building, where leadership is changing, and which levels matter most.

Rather than relying on a single chart or indicator, Technicals combines cross-asset analysis, sector and factor trends, and clearly defined risk management levels into one actionable roadmap.

If you want a deeper, chart-based perspective to complement the daily Sevens Report, click below to read more.

Sevens Report Technicals

 

Did Situational Awareness and Earnings Eliminate Tech Concerns?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Situational Awareness and Earnings Eliminate Tech Concerns?
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Another Goldilocks Labor Report

Futures are mostly higher as markets absorb disappointing guidance from AMD and SPCX amid mixed global economic data overnight with persistent optimism for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal capping oil prices and supporting bonds.

Economic data was mixed overnight as China’s Services PMI plunged from 54.1 to 50.4 vs. (E) 53.9 in July, however the EU Composite PMI firmed a full 2 points to 52.0 vs. (E) 51.9 last month, helping tamp down growth worries in the Eurozone.

Today, trader focus will be on economic data early with the July ADP Employment Report (E: 75K) and ISM Services Index (E: 54.5) both due to be released by mid-morning.

There is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, and the results of the auction have the potential to shed light on the bond market’s outlook for Fed policy, which could ultimately impact the broader equity market leading into the afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Cook (4:05 p.m. ET) and Daly (8:35 p.m. ET), but both are not until well after the closing bell.

Finally, earnings continues with notable companies reporting today including LLY ($6.71), SHOP ($0.28), UBER ($0.83), DIS ($1.88), SNDK ($33.28), WDC ($3.24), and MELI ($8.69). As has been the case, investors are demanding to see very robust results in order to reward companies given the current high multiple market environment.

 

Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways – U.S. Factory Sector Growth Remains Strong

Futures are higher with tech leading as PLTR reported very strong quarterly earnings after the close yesterday with revenue surging 93% which is bolstering the long-AI trade and pushing S&P 500 futures towards record highs.

There were no market moving economic reports or noteworthy geopolitical news overnight leaving trader focus on looming U.S. labor market data and earnings.

Today, there are three economic reports to watch including Factory Orders (E: 0.4%), JOLTS (E: 7.35 million), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-73.0B). The main focus with be JOLTS as U.S. labor market resilience is becoming a key pillar supporting stocks in H2’26.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week and a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries roiled markets last week as yields surged on the long end, so if the auctions are weak, the results could prove to be an unexpected source of volatility today.

Turning to earnings, the quarterly reporting season continues today with CAT ($6.25), PFE ($0.68), MCD ($3.32), BP ($1.98), AMD ($1.35), SPCX ($-0.26), and ANET ($0.80) all due to release results, and the stronger the better for stocks.

 

More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Economic Data and Falling Geopolitical Tensions Push Yields Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports this Week.

Futures are modestly higher on a drop in oil prices as President Trump announced over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran were again close to a ceasefire agreement.

On Saturday President Trump called off the threatened strikes on Iran, citing progress towards a ceasefire and oil is down 5% on the news.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs generally met expectations and were both above 50 (51.9).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 54.0) and, like all reports this week, investors will want to see a Goldilocks reading of 1) Solid headline growth (so comfortably above 50) and 2) Stability in the price index (so no big jump).

On earnings, the peak of the Q2 season has passed but there are still important reports to watch.  Notable earnings today include: MAR ($3.06), PLTR ($0.28) and ON ($0.72).

 

Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

Futures are solidly higher, led by tech, as strong Amazon earnings help extend yesterday’s sharp rebound in technology stocks.

Geopolitically, Iran launched new attacks on U.S. assets in Kuwait and Bahrain, pushing oil prices slightly higher as tensions remain elevated.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) met expectations at 2.9% y/y while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 17.9%, its best day on record.

Today, there are two notable economic reports to watch including Chicago PMI (E: 55.0) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2). There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

Finally, several notable earnings reports include XOM ($3.80), ABBV ($3.64), CVX ($5.80), AN ($5.43), ETN ($3.08), and D ($0.73).

Markets will be looking for stable economic data and another round of solid earnings to help extend the rebound in stocks.

 

Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are bouncing modestly on solid MSFT earnings and on a slight decline in oil prices.

Microsoft posted strong earnings and guidance (MSFT up 10% pre-market) and that’s helping to stabilize broader tech this morning.

Geopolitically, the U.S. struck Iran overnight but didn’t signal dramatic escalation so oil prices are down 1%.

Today is another busy day in the market with potentially important updates from economic data, geopolitics and earnings.

Economically, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) and if that’s a “hot” number we’ll see yields rise further and pressure stocks.  Other notable economic data today includes Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 2.3%) and Jobless Claims (E: 205K),.

On earnings, we get two more major tech names reporting via AAPL ($1.88) and AMZN ($1.82) while MA ($4.77) will give us insight into consumer spending.  Across the board, the better the earnings, the better for markets.

Finally, on geopolitics, any hint of ceasefire progress should pressure oil prices which would be a general positive for markets.

 

Today’s Alpha Webinar: Updating the Bullish/Bearish Setup for this Market

Markets are at an important inflection point. AI leadership is being questioned, the Fed’s path into 2026 remains uncertain, inflation data continues to surprise, and earnings season is testing investor confidence.

The key question is whether this recent pullback is simply a healthy pause within an ongoing bull market or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in trend.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll connect these developments into a clear bullish and bearish framework, explain what we’re watching most closely, and discuss the implications for portfolio positioning and client conversations.

If you’re looking for a deeper analysis beyond the daily Sevens Report—including actionable investment ideas, client-ready slide decks, and timely thematic research—click below to learn more about Alpha and join us live this afternoon.

Sevens Report Alpha Webinar

 

Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

Futures are slightly higher despite negative geopolitical and AI related earnings news overnight.

Iran launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan threatening current ceasefire progress (oil is up 5% on the news).

SK Hynix earnings missed expectations and the stock dropped 8%, although the “rest” of tech was solid.

Today should be a busy day full of potential market moving catalysts, starting with the FOMC Decision, where no change is expected but a hike is possible.  Geopolitically, ceasefire progress is in jeopardy given Iran’s surprise attack but, for now, markets remain optimistic it won’t be derailed (oil is only up 5% and it’d be higher if markets feared escalation).

Finally, on earnings, two of the hyperscalers report this afternoon, MSFT ($4.21) and META ($7.13) and markets will want to see strong revenue growth and controlled cap-ex increases.