Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Where Earnings and Revenue Growth Is Coming From
  • Visual – Money Is Moving From the Hyperscalers
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways

Futures are mildly lower as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East overnight with the U.S. and Iran launching a fresh wave of military strikes against one another which sent crude oil prices and global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s May Service PMI was solid (54.4 vs. E: 52.2) while the EU Composite PMI was better than feared (48.5 vs. E: 47.5) but still in contraction territory. Paired with the latest EU PPI release, which showed a headline increase of 4.9% vs. (E) 4.5% Y/Y, the data rekindled stagflation fears in the Eurozone.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus appears to be shifting back to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, so any material developments (good or bad) will likely impact markets with traders keenly watching oil prices as a bellwether.

On the data front, “jobs week” kicks off with today’s ADP Employment Report (E: 120K) due out ahead of the bell, while data on Factory Orders (E: 4.3%) and the ISM Services Index (E: 53.9) will both be released shortly after the opening bell. The stronger the growth data/cooler the inflation data, the better for stocks.

Additionally there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Barr (9:00 a.m. ET) and Logan (4:00 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for a less-hawkish tone regarding potential rate hikes in 2026 in order for the risk-on rally to continue.

Finally, on the earnings front, quarterly results from MDT ($1.54), M ($0.02), AVGO ($2.02), CRWD ($0.13), AI ($-0.74), and FIVE ($1.70) are all due to be released. The semiconductor/AI-names will be particularly important as tech earnings/revenue growth has been a major market tailwind in Q2.

 

What Is Tokenmaxxing? (And Why Does It Matter to You?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is Tokenmaxxing and Why Does It Matter to You?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are slightly lower as a wave of broad market profit taking is being partially offset by a bid in the tech sector after NVDA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, said MRVL (+25%) could be the next $1T company overnight, stoking a fresh sense of AI-enthusiasm.

Economically, the Eurozone’s May HICP Flash rose 3.2% vs. (E) 3.3% Y/Y with the Narrow-Core rising to 2.5% vs. (E) 2.4% Y/Y.

Today, there are two domestic economic reports to watch with JOLTS (E: 6.815 million) being the key number to watch followed by Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.0 million).

Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak this morning: Hammack (8:30 a.m. ET) and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, both of which could move bond yields and influence equity markets (the lower yields go, the better for stocks).

Finally, some late season earnings to watch today including DG ($1.89), VSCO ($0.29), PANW ($0.43), GTLB (-$0.06), and ULTA ($6.91); the stronger the results, the better for the bullish equity narrative.

 

Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Stocks Keep Rising? (Biggest Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tech earnings and economic growth stay strong?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy Week Highlighted by Friday’s Jobs Report

Futures are modestly higher despite no U.S./Iran ceasefire and as AI Enthusiasm continues to support stocks.

There was no additional progress on a U.S./Iran agreement and the two sides again exchanged limited strikes but markets still expect a ceasefire agreement in the coming days.

Nvidia unveiled a new AI processor designed specifically for Windows and that is boosting tech and futures.

This week is a busy and potentially important one from an economic standpoint and it starts today with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.3). Markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading of better than expected headline activity and tame price indices (the opposite would be stagflationary and negative for markets). We also get one Fed speaker today, Waller (8:30 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Notable tech earnings continue this week including today:   SAIC ($2.26), HPE ($0.44).

 

New Market Tailwind: Falling Rate Hike Fears

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New Market Tailwind:  Falling Rate Hike Fears

Futures are slightly higher as markets await confirmation of a U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement while tech earnings continued to be very, very strong.

There was no update on the U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement overnight but numerous reports state a deal has been struck and is awaiting President Trump’s approval.

On earnings, DELL is the latest AI linked tech company to post blow out results and the stock is up 35% pre-open.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and specifically confirmation from Trump of the ceasefire agreement.  The deal is mostly priced into markets so confirmation shouldn’t cause a big rally, although if the deal is rejected it will be a modest negative.

Away from geopolitics, the only key economic report today is the Chicago PMI (E: 51.2) and barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  There are numerous Fed speakers, however, including Bowman (9:10 a.m. ET), Paulson (9:15 a.m. ET) and Daly (12:40 p.m. ET) and if they are hawkish it could put a mild headwind on stocks.

 

The Canary in the Coal Mine for Memory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Canary in the Coal Mine for Memory
  • Advisor Advantage: 12 Ways to Save Money on Gas This Summer (Client Material)

Futures are slightly lower following tit-for-tat missile/drone strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.S. and Iran traded limited missile/drone attacks although the moves were “defensive” and ceasefire expectations remain intact.

Barring a ceasefire agreement or major escalation between the U.S. and Iran, the focus today will be on economic data and the key reports are, in order of importance: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y), Durable Goods (E: 2.8%), Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Q1 GDP (E: 2.1%),  New Home Sales (E: 662K).  For these economic releases the key is solid activity and stable prices, as that will push back on stagflation concerns.

Today also brings numerous Fed speakers including Williams (8:55 a.m.), Musalem (10:15 a.m.) and Barkin (3:00 p.m.).  Of the three, Williams is the most important because he’s part of Fed leadership and if he hints at an openness to rate hikes it will be a headwind on stocks.

Finally, on the earnings front, the key report today will be DELL ($2.79) because it pertains to AI but two notable consumer reports are BBY ($1.22) and COST ($4.91).  For these earnings the stronger, the better for markets.

 

Alpha Report: The AI Trade Is Evolving Beyond Chips and Mega-Cap Tech

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Specifically, we break down where AI-related capital spending is flowing next, which sectors and industries may quietly benefit from the second-order effects of the buildout, and how investors can think about positioning if the AI trade broadens from here.

The report is designed to help you move beyond the headlines and better explain to clients where the next phase of the AI investment cycle may emerge.

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The “Memory Wall” and Why It’s Driving the Latest AI-Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The “Memory Wall” and Why It’s Caused the Latest AI-Driven Rally

Futures are higher with tech and small caps leading as oil and yields retreat amid firming optimism for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal after an otherwise quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits rose 2.7% to 18.2% in April, the fastest pace since November of 2023 with “Computing/Electronics” profits more than doubling Y/Y helping bolster AI-enthusiasm.

Looking into today’s session, there is one “second-tiered” economic report: the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 4.0) which is unlikely to materially impact markets (however “hot” price figures could rekindle inflation worries).

Additionally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could shed light on the sustainability of the recent rebound in bonds, so the stronger the demand, the better for fixed income markets and risk assets alike today.

There are also two Fed speakers, both late in the day with Cook scheduled to deliver remarks at 3:55 p.m. ET, and Jefferson on the calendar to speak after the close (8: 00 p.m. ET). Regarding the Fed speak, the less hawkish/more accommodative the tone, the better.

Finally, some late-season earnings will be released today with DKS ($2.87), PDD ($2.03), BNS ($1.46), CRM ($2.30), MRVL ($0.61), SNOW (-$0.59), HPQ ($0.72) all due to release Q1 results. Barring any noteworthy disappointments, particularly from the tech companies reporting, a strong earnings season should remain a tailwind for market into the end of the month.

 

Will a U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Be a Bullish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will a U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Be a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – All Eyes on U.S. Inflation Data

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning as oil trades well below $100/barrel and Treasury yields are retreating sharply amid ongoing peace deal hopes despite reports of U.S. missile strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend.

There were no market-moving economic reports overnight leaving focus on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. launched military strikes against Iranian targets over the weekend. The strikes were referred to as “defensive” in nature by U.S. military leadership, however, and President Trump made optimistic comments that a peace deal with Iran is close which is helping bolster “risk-on/war-off” money flows in pre-market trade.

Today, there are a handful of economic reports to watch in the U.S. including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.7%), and most importantly Consumer Confidence (E: 91.6) due out shortly after the bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that will offer an important read on bond market sentiment after the long weekend (the stronger the demand the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues today with quarterly reports due out from AZO ($36.09), ZS ($1.01), and SQM ($1.78).

 

Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as earnings were solid overnight and investors remained optimistic about a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There was no incremental progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire overnight but investors ultimately expect a deal in the near term.

Earnings have been the driver of this recent rally and results overnight were solid, highlighted by WDAY (up 8%).

Econ Today: Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.2, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.5%), Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%).  Fed Speak: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET).

Focus today will be on geopolitics and any tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire will further pressure oil and boost stocks.

Away from geopolitics, the key economic report today is the five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.  Inflation expectations above 3.0% and closer to 4.0% will make the Fed more hawkish and increase rate hike chances, so the closer to 3.0% in that number, the better.

 

How to Get Pre-IPO Exposure to SpaceX

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Get Pre-IPO Exposure to SpaceX

Futures are modestly lower as NVDA earnings met expectations while markets await news on the ceasefire.

NVDA results were strong but not perfect (small miss on data center revs) and the stock is flat overnight.

Economically, EU and UK May flash PMIs signaled stagflation, with weak growth (sub-50) and high prices.

Today markets will continue to watch the U.S./Iran headlines and any backtracking on yesterday’s “progress” will be a general negative.

Away from geopolitics, however, today is a busy day of economic data that will give us important insight into stagflation risks.  Key reports toady include, in order of importance: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.5), Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Philly Fed (E: 15.0) and Housing Starts (1.410M).  In general, solid results modestly above expectations are the best case for stocks.  We also have one Fed speaker, Barkin at 12:20 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, three notable reports today include WMT ($0.65), DE ($5.81) and WDAY ($1.17).

 

Stagflation or “Run Hot”

Between now and Labor Day, markets should get a much clearer answer on whether the economy is headed toward stagflation or a continued “run hot” environment of resilient growth and elevated inflation.

In this week’s Alpha webinar, we will build a practical “Stagflation vs. Run Hot Summer Scorecard” designed to help advisors identify which environment is developing beneath the surface of today’s market.

Subscribers receive:

  • The key growth and inflation indicators to watch this summer
  • The levels and signals that would point to stagflation vs. run hot
  • Portfolio implications for stocks, bonds, and commodities

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Is the Outlook Turning More Negative: Market Checkup

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Outlook Turning More Negative? (Market Checkup)
  • Chart: 30-Yr Treasury Yield Rises to the Highest Since 2007

Stock futures are higher as global bonds steady in the wake of a favorable dip in EU inflation ahead of NVDA earnings due out after the close today.

Economically, EU inflation actually cooled in April as the Eurozone Core HICP figure (a CPI equivalent) fell from 2.3% to 2.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 2.2% last month.

There are no noteworthy economic releases today however the Fed’s Barr is scheduled to speak ahead of the bell (9:15 a.m. ET) and the latest FOMC meeting Minutes will be published this afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could rekindle volatility in the fixed income space.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due to be released by ADI ($2.89), TGT ($1.37), LOW ($2.96), TJX ($1.01), INTU ($11.13), ELF ($0.01) and by far the most important release of the day (and potentially entire earnings season) NVDA ($1.70).

With NVDA earnings looming large after the close, today’s equity market price action is likely to be driven by bond yields with both the Treasury auctions and FOMC minutes in focus. If yields remain lower, there is a good chance stocks enjoy a relief rally into the NVDA earnings release this afternoon.