Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Yen Intervention Matters to Markets
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways – U.S. Factory Sector Growth Remains Strong

Futures are higher with tech leading as PLTR reported very strong quarterly earnings after the close yesterday with revenue surging 93% which is bolstering the long-AI trade and pushing S&P 500 futures towards record highs.

There were no market moving economic reports or noteworthy geopolitical news overnight leaving trader focus on looming U.S. labor market data and earnings.

Today, there are three economic reports to watch including Factory Orders (E: 0.4%), JOLTS (E: 7.35 million), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-73.0B). The main focus with be JOLTS as U.S. labor market resilience is becoming a key pillar supporting stocks in H2’26.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week and a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries roiled markets last week as yields surged on the long end, so if the auctions are weak, the results could prove to be an unexpected source of volatility today.

Turning to earnings, the quarterly reporting season continues today with CAT ($6.25), PFE ($0.68), MCD ($3.32), BP ($1.98), AMD ($1.35), SPCX ($-0.26), and ANET ($0.80) all due to release results, and the stronger the better for stocks.

 

More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Economic Data and Falling Geopolitical Tensions Push Yields Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports this Week.

Futures are modestly higher on a drop in oil prices as President Trump announced over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran were again close to a ceasefire agreement.

On Saturday President Trump called off the threatened strikes on Iran, citing progress towards a ceasefire and oil is down 5% on the news.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs generally met expectations and were both above 50 (51.9).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 54.0) and, like all reports this week, investors will want to see a Goldilocks reading of 1) Solid headline growth (so comfortably above 50) and 2) Stability in the price index (so no big jump).

On earnings, the peak of the Q2 season has passed but there are still important reports to watch.  Notable earnings today include: MAR ($3.06), PLTR ($0.28) and ON ($0.72).

 

Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

Futures are solidly higher, led by tech, as strong Amazon earnings help extend yesterday’s sharp rebound in technology stocks.

Geopolitically, Iran launched new attacks on U.S. assets in Kuwait and Bahrain, pushing oil prices slightly higher as tensions remain elevated.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) met expectations at 2.9% y/y while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 17.9%, its best day on record.

Today, there are two notable economic reports to watch including Chicago PMI (E: 55.0) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2). There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

Finally, several notable earnings reports include XOM ($3.80), ABBV ($3.64), CVX ($5.80), AN ($5.43), ETN ($3.08), and D ($0.73).

Markets will be looking for stable economic data and another round of solid earnings to help extend the rebound in stocks.

 

Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are bouncing modestly on solid MSFT earnings and on a slight decline in oil prices.

Microsoft posted strong earnings and guidance (MSFT up 10% pre-market) and that’s helping to stabilize broader tech this morning.

Geopolitically, the U.S. struck Iran overnight but didn’t signal dramatic escalation so oil prices are down 1%.

Today is another busy day in the market with potentially important updates from economic data, geopolitics and earnings.

Economically, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) and if that’s a “hot” number we’ll see yields rise further and pressure stocks.  Other notable economic data today includes Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 2.3%) and Jobless Claims (E: 205K),.

On earnings, we get two more major tech names reporting via AAPL ($1.88) and AMZN ($1.82) while MA ($4.77) will give us insight into consumer spending.  Across the board, the better the earnings, the better for markets.

Finally, on geopolitics, any hint of ceasefire progress should pressure oil prices which would be a general positive for markets.

 

Today’s Alpha Webinar: Updating the Bullish/Bearish Setup for this Market

Markets are at an important inflection point. AI leadership is being questioned, the Fed’s path into 2026 remains uncertain, inflation data continues to surprise, and earnings season is testing investor confidence.

The key question is whether this recent pullback is simply a healthy pause within an ongoing bull market or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in trend.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll connect these developments into a clear bullish and bearish framework, explain what we’re watching most closely, and discuss the implications for portfolio positioning and client conversations.

If you’re looking for a deeper analysis beyond the daily Sevens Report—including actionable investment ideas, client-ready slide decks, and timely thematic research—click below to learn more about Alpha and join us live this afternoon.

Sevens Report Alpha Webinar

 

Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

Futures are slightly higher despite negative geopolitical and AI related earnings news overnight.

Iran launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan threatening current ceasefire progress (oil is up 5% on the news).

SK Hynix earnings missed expectations and the stock dropped 8%, although the “rest” of tech was solid.

Today should be a busy day full of potential market moving catalysts, starting with the FOMC Decision, where no change is expected but a hike is possible.  Geopolitically, ceasefire progress is in jeopardy given Iran’s surprise attack but, for now, markets remain optimistic it won’t be derailed (oil is only up 5% and it’d be higher if markets feared escalation).

Finally, on earnings, two of the hyperscalers report this afternoon, MSFT ($4.21) and META ($7.13) and markets will want to see strong revenue growth and controlled cap-ex increases.

 

FOMC Preview: How Likely is a Rate Hike?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview: How Likely Is a Rate Hike?
  • The Real Reason Oil Plunged on Monday

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest recent tech volatility ahead of earnings while oil fell further on U.S./Iran ceasefire optimism.

Oil prices declined another 2% overnight on more positive ceasefire commentary from Washington.

Today economic data centers on housing via the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.0%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.0%) and since they can be big influences on inflation stats (especially CPI), better than expected numbers will be a mild positive.  We also get Consumer Confidence (E: 92.3) but that shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key tech reports start tomorrow but some reports we’re watching today include: PYPL ($1.28), BA ($-0.34), KO ($0.92), UPS ($1.65), DINO ($4.39), V ($3.23), STX ($4.89) and ENPH ($0.16).

 

Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest Problems

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest “Problems”
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed in Focus as Mega-Cap Earnings Continue
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Durable Goods to Shed Light on Business Spending

U.S. futures are tracking global equities higher as part of a broad “risk-on/war-off” move with oil down ~7%, and bond yields lower by 3-5 bp across the curve after the U.S. and Iran halted military strikes amid fresh prospects for a new ceasefire deal.

Economically, the July German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in solid at 86.5 vs. (E) 84.4 which added to the positive sentiment to start the week.

Today we will get one of the more important economic data points of the week via the release of June Durable Goods Orders report (E: 1.6%). Investors will be looking for a healthy, but not “too-hot” release as too strong of a print could put renewed upward pressure on yields.

There are no Fed speakers today with the July FOMC meeting getting underway tomorrow, however, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market and impact equities.

Finally, Q2 earnings season remains in full swing with quarterly results due out from AZN ($2.50), BKR ($0.51), APLD ($-0.20), NVTS ($-0.04), NUE ($4.57), and UHS ($5.66) before the bulk of the remaining Mag-7 earnings reports are due out later this week.

 

Appearing Today on Barron’s Live at Noon ET.

I’m honored to be appearing on Barron’s Live today at noon ET with Barron’s Editor-in-Chief Ben Levisohn and Senior Managing Editor Lauren Rublin.

We’ll be discussing AI, the Iran war, oil prices, rising bond yields, and other market matters!

Click this link to register and listen live!

 

What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?
  • Jobless Claims Takeaways – Initial Claims Plunge to Multi-Decade Lows

Futures are tentatively higher following yesterday’s biggest stock market selloff of July with oil down 2%-3% amid quiet geopolitical news while global PMI data beat estimates.

Economic data overnight was strong with U.K. Retail Sales jumping 4.2% vs. (E) 2.0% y/y while the EU Composite Flash PMI firmed from 50.0 to 51.9 vs. (E) 50.1 in July.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two notable releases to watch in the U.S., the July PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.2) and New Home Sales (E: 613K) for June.

There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold.

Finally, earnings season continues today with noteworthy companies reporting Q2 results including: VZ ($1.27), AXP ($4.41), NEE ($1.08), CHTR ($9.66), and HCA ($7.57).

 

Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings
  • What Is the Bab el-Mandeb and Why Is It a Problem?

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical concerns and mixed tech earnings.

GOOGL earnings were solid but the company boosted capex spending plans, increasing concerns about future free cash flow and tech stocks are lower in response.

Geopolitically, Houthis attacked two Saudi ships in the Red Sea, further disrupting global oil transit (oil is up 4%).

Today the only notable economic report is Jobless Claims (E: 214K) and that shouldn’t move markets, so focus will remain on geopolitics (any progress at all towards a ceasefire will pressure oil prices and boost stocks) and on the reaction from tech stocks to mixed earnings (if tech stocks stay soft post GOOGL earnings it’ll weigh on the major indices).

Earnings season continues, meanwhile, and some important reports we’re watching today include: INTC ($0.21), NOK ($0.07), AAL ($0.03), BX ($1.32), LMT ($7.32), FCX ($0.60), RTX ($1.66).

 

Sevens Report Technicals

When sector volatility reaches levels only seen around 2000, 2001, and 2009, it deserves more than a passing glance. That’s exactly what we explore in this week’s Sevens Report Technicals.

Beyond the major indices, we examine where money is rotating beneath the surface, why Value continues to outperform Growth, how Treasury, credit, and volatility markets are either confirming or challenging the equity narrative, and what those signals could mean for portfolio positioning.

If you want to better understand whether this is simply another pullback or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in market leadership, click here to learn more about this week’s Technicals report and see why advisors rely on it to stay one step ahead.

 

Tech Decline Part Two: Staying Long With Less Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part Two: Ways to Stay Long Tech But Reduce AI Infrastructure

Futures are in the red as oil prices hit six-week highs overnight (WTI topped $88/barrel) amid ongoing geopolitical angst surrounding the U.S.-Iran war, but global equities are stabilizing as the fear bid in energy is beginning to show signs of near-term exhaustion.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell -0.2% to 2.6% vs. (E) 2.7% Y/Y while Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% Y/Y, the latest evidence that global inflation pressures have potentially peaked.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak (pre-July meeting blackout period) but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on longer-term inflation expectations and potentially impact equities (the stronger the demand for the bonds, the better).

The primary focus of today’s session will remain the fluid geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (any signs of a ceasefire deal on the table will be a positive) and the Q2 earnings season which remains in full swing with GEV ($3.16), T ($0.59), PM ($2.04), TSLA ($0.53), GOOGL ($2.87), TXN ($1.91), and LUV ($0.52) all due to release quarterly results today.