Understanding Why Tech Stocks Have Exploded Higher (And Is It a Bubble?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Tech Stocks Have Exploded Higher (Again) and If It Is a Bubble This Time
  • Chart: Visualizing AI Revenue Growth

Futures are lower as bond yields continue to rise with oil holding above $100/barrel amid a lack of material U.S.-Iran ceasefire progress and a stagflationary U.K. jobs print.

Economically, the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9% while wage growth firmed to 4.1% vs. (E) 3.7% in May offering markets a fresh whiff of stagflation overnight.

Today, trader focus will be on U.S. home builder data early in the day with Housing Starts (1.410M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Additionally, there are a few Fed speakers today including Waller (8:00 a.m. ET), Paulson (7:00 p.m. ET), and Venable (7:45 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for a dovish tone to help slow the recent rise in yields which has weighed heavily on the broader equity markets.

Finally, some late season earnings will be released today with notable companies reporting including HD ($3.42), BILI ($0.08), KEYS ($2.04), and TOL ($2.57).

 

Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Sneakily Important Week for Earnings, Economic Growth and Iran
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does May Economic Activity Stay Resilient?

Futures are extending Friday’s declines and are moderately lower as there was no progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia reported limited drone attacks on energy infrastructure and while markets still expect a ceasefire, the chances of a resumption of fighting are rising.

Economically, Chinese data was soft, as Industrial Production (4.1% vs. (E) 6.0%), Fixed Asset Investment (-1.6% vs. (E) 1.7%) and Retail Sales (0.2% vs. (E) 2.0%) all badly missed estimates.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics as President Trump is meeting with his national security team and while not the majority expectation, the chances of a resumption of direct U.S. attacks on Iran are rising (and if that happens, markets will drop). Away from geopolitics, the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) which shouldn’t move markets.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

Futures are sharply lower as rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns pressure stocks following the Trump-Xi summit.

The Trump-Xi meeting ended with few concrete agreements as markets continue to monitor oil-driven inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict.

Economically, Japanese PPI YoY surged above expectations (4.9% vs. (E) 3.0%) and reinforced inflation concerns.

There are two economic reports due out in the U.S. today: Empire Manufacturing (E: 7.8) and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%).

There are no notable earnings today, while investors will continue to monitor Treasury yields, oil prices, and any updates from the Trump-Xi summit.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (April Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (April Launches)

Futures are modestly higher on strong CSCO earnings and optimism surrounding the ongoing U.S.-China summit.

U.S. and China officials continued talks overnight while Xi reportedly expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil and both countries agreed Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon. Oil is rising amid reports of a vessel seized near the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, UK monthly GDP missed estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on Retail Sales (E: -0.5%) and Jobless Claims (E: 208K). Markets will want stable consumer data following recent mixed economic reports.

Beyond the data, several Fed officials speak today including Schmid (10:15 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:00 p.m. ET), Williams (5:45 p.m. ET), and Barr (7:00 p.m. ET). Earnings today include AMAT ($2.68), and markets will also continue to monitor developments from the U.S.-China summit and oil prices.

 

Sevens Report Technicals – Q2 Rally – Trust But Verify

Markets continue to hit new highs, but beneath the surface the technical backdrop is becoming more fragmented and harder to navigate. That’s the focus of this week’s Sevens Report Technicals.

In the latest issue, we break down key divergences across indices, sectors, yields, commodities, the dollar, and market internals—helping advisors understand what’s really driving this rally and where risks may be building.

For a clearer read on market leadership and the technical signals that will determine what comes next, learn more here: Sevens Report Technicals

MMT Levels Chart: Concentration Risks Rise Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Targets – S&P 500 Chart
  • “Concentration” Approaches ATHs Amid Overbought Conditions

Futures are higher amid strength in tech/semiconductors on news that NVDA’s CEO Huang would join President Trump’s trip to China along with other big tech executives, contradicting previous reports.

Meanwhile oil and bond markets steadied overnight amid no material geopolitical headlines.

Economically, the Q1 Eurozone GDP Flash met estimates at +0.8% Y/Y, down from +1.2% in Q4 while EU Industrial Production fell from -0.6% to -2.1% vs. (E) -1.8% in March underscoring a loss of momentum in global growth underway in 2026.

Looking ahead to today’s session, trader focus will be on the second important inflation print of the week with PPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.8% y/y) due out ahead of the bell. A cooler-than-feared release would help ease this week’s upside pressure on bond yields which would be favorable for equities today.

Additionally, there are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Collins (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:15 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:30 p.m. ET (the stronger the demand metrics the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings continue to be released with BABA ($1.02) and CSCO ($0.86) two notable reports to watch today, however the market will be largely focused on Trump’s trip to China and any noteworthy progress towards a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

 

May MMT: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • May Market Multiple Table: Fundamental Improvement But What’s Next?

Futures are lower amid “risk-off/war-on” money flows (oil and yields higher) with no reported progress towards a U.S.-Iran ceasefire ahead of key U.S. inflation data today.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.9% Y/Y while the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little changed at 95.9 vs. (E) 96.1 in April, however the data is not materially moving markets with geopolitics remaining in focus.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the U.S. CPI (E: 0.6% m/m, 3.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) release will be one of the more important domestic data points released this week, and if the number comes in hot, a sharp rise in yields could weigh heavily on stocks.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker to watch: Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to impact bond markets and influence equity price action today.

Finally, a few earnings reports to watch today include SE ($0.70), JD ($0.43), and QBTS (-$0.10). As has been the case this earnings season, the better the quarterly results, the better in this market environment.

 

What Could Go Wrong for This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong for This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the ceasefire finally happen?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A big week for inflation

Futures are little changed despite no incremental progress on an official U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

On Sunday night President Trump declared Iran’s response to the ceasefire terms “totally unacceptable” and oil is rallying as a result, although markets still believe a ceasefire agreement will be reached (so stocks aren’t down much).

Economically, Chinese CPI rose more than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9% y/y) reflecting the inflationary effects of higher energy prices.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics as there’s only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05M), and it shouldn’t move markets.  Regarding the U.S. and Iran, as long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire (and it shouldn’t be a material negative for stocks).

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Can a Run Hot Economy Turn into Stagflation?

Futures are modestly higher as President Trump downplayed the latest strikes on Iran.

President Trump called Thursday’s strikes on Iran a “love tap” and reiterated the ceasefire was still in place, easing markets concerns.

German Industrial Production slightly missed estimates (-3.0% vs. (E) -2.5% y/y) but that’s not moving markets.

Focus today will be on the April jobs report and expectations are as follows:  63K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 3.8% Y/Y Wage Growth.  The best case for markets remains a Goldilocks number that combines a solid jobs number modestly above estimates and stable wage growth at or below estimates.

Geopolitically, the market continues to ignore headlines about limited U.S./Iran strikes and likely will continue to do so as long as the administration says the ceasefire is still in place.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers this evening including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee & Waller (7:30 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Goldilocks, Stagflation or Run Hot?

Futures are little changed as markets digest Wednesday’s new highs following a generally quiet night of news.

Iran reportedly has agreed to transfer enriched uranium to a third country for storage and, if confirmed, that would be a major step towards a ceasefire agreement.

Economic data was solid overnight as German Manufacturers Orders rose more than expected (5.0% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Today geopolitics will continue to influence markets although at this point an agreed to ceasefire is mostly priced in, so an official announcement shouldn’t spark a material rally.

Away from Iran, we have Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 1.7%, 2.0%) along with several Fed speakers:  Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET), Hammack (2:05 p.m. ET) and Williams (3:30 p.m. ET).  For stocks to extend the rally, we will want to see stable economic data and Fed officials stressing that inflation is temporary (which means rate cuts remain a possibility later in the year).

 

Alpha Webinar: What Outperforms If Inflation Becomes a Problem (Again)?

Inflation is firming, yields are climbing, and the idea of rate hikes later this year is gaining traction. That combination caught markets off guard in 2022—and the result was a sharp repricing across stocks and bonds.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar, I will revisit that period to build a practical playbook for today’s environment. Specifically, I will break down which assets held up best, which sectors outperformed and lagged, and what strategies proved most effective when inflation and rates moved higher.

I’ll also translate those insights into actionable positioning frameworks you can use now, and clear talking points you can use with clients.

Access the full report and playbook here: Sevens Report Alpha

 

What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy (And What Does It Mean for Markets?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Is a “Run-Hot” Economy and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are sharply higher amid positive geopolitical news and more strong mega-cap tech earnings overnight with AMD reporting blowout Q1 results (shares up ~25%).

Oil futures are down 10%+ and bond yields are off 8+ bp after Axios reported a U.S.-Iran peace deal that would result in the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will primarily be on the positive geopolitical developments but “jobs week” kicks off this morning with the release of the ADP Employment Report (E: 85K) pre-market.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (9:30 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, earnings season continues with DIS ($1.49), NVO ($0.87), UBER ($0.71), IONQ ($-0.55) and APP ($3.40) all scheduled to release quarterly results today.