The “Memory Wall” and Why It’s Driving the Latest AI-Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The “Memory Wall” and Why It’s Caused the Latest AI-Driven Rally

Futures are higher with tech and small caps leading as oil and yields retreat amid firming optimism for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal after an otherwise quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits rose 2.7% to 18.2% in April, the fastest pace since November of 2023 with “Computing/Electronics” profits more than doubling Y/Y helping bolster AI-enthusiasm.

Looking into today’s session, there is one “second-tiered” economic report: the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 4.0) which is unlikely to materially impact markets (however “hot” price figures could rekindle inflation worries).

Additionally, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could shed light on the sustainability of the recent rebound in bonds, so the stronger the demand, the better for fixed income markets and risk assets alike today.

There are also two Fed speakers, both late in the day with Cook scheduled to deliver remarks at 3:55 p.m. ET, and Jefferson on the calendar to speak after the close (8: 00 p.m. ET). Regarding the Fed speak, the less hawkish/more accommodative the tone, the better.

Finally, some late-season earnings will be released today with DKS ($2.87), PDD ($2.03), BNS ($1.46), CRM ($2.30), MRVL ($0.61), SNOW (-$0.59), HPQ ($0.72) all due to release Q1 results. Barring any noteworthy disappointments, particularly from the tech companies reporting, a strong earnings season should remain a tailwind for market into the end of the month.

 

Will a U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Be a Bullish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will a U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Be a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – All Eyes on U.S. Inflation Data

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning as oil trades well below $100/barrel and Treasury yields are retreating sharply amid ongoing peace deal hopes despite reports of U.S. missile strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend.

There were no market-moving economic reports overnight leaving focus on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. launched military strikes against Iranian targets over the weekend. The strikes were referred to as “defensive” in nature by U.S. military leadership, however, and President Trump made optimistic comments that a peace deal with Iran is close which is helping bolster “risk-on/war-off” money flows in pre-market trade.

Today, there are a handful of economic reports to watch in the U.S. including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.7%), and most importantly Consumer Confidence (E: 91.6) due out shortly after the bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that will offer an important read on bond market sentiment after the long weekend (the stronger the demand the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues today with quarterly reports due out from AZO ($36.09), ZS ($1.01), and SQM ($1.78).

 

Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as earnings were solid overnight and investors remained optimistic about a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There was no incremental progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire overnight but investors ultimately expect a deal in the near term.

Earnings have been the driver of this recent rally and results overnight were solid, highlighted by WDAY (up 8%).

Econ Today: Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.2, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.5%), Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%).  Fed Speak: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET).

Focus today will be on geopolitics and any tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire will further pressure oil and boost stocks.

Away from geopolitics, the key economic report today is the five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.  Inflation expectations above 3.0% and closer to 4.0% will make the Fed more hawkish and increase rate hike chances, so the closer to 3.0% in that number, the better.

 

How to Get Pre-IPO Exposure to SpaceX

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Get Pre-IPO Exposure to SpaceX

Futures are modestly lower as NVDA earnings met expectations while markets await news on the ceasefire.

NVDA results were strong but not perfect (small miss on data center revs) and the stock is flat overnight.

Economically, EU and UK May flash PMIs signaled stagflation, with weak growth (sub-50) and high prices.

Today markets will continue to watch the U.S./Iran headlines and any backtracking on yesterday’s “progress” will be a general negative.

Away from geopolitics, however, today is a busy day of economic data that will give us important insight into stagflation risks.  Key reports toady include, in order of importance: Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.5), Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Philly Fed (E: 15.0) and Housing Starts (1.410M).  In general, solid results modestly above expectations are the best case for stocks.  We also have one Fed speaker, Barkin at 12:20 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, three notable reports today include WMT ($0.65), DE ($5.81) and WDAY ($1.17).

 

Stagflation or “Run Hot”

Between now and Labor Day, markets should get a much clearer answer on whether the economy is headed toward stagflation or a continued “run hot” environment of resilient growth and elevated inflation.

In this week’s Alpha webinar, we will build a practical “Stagflation vs. Run Hot Summer Scorecard” designed to help advisors identify which environment is developing beneath the surface of today’s market.

Subscribers receive:

  • The key growth and inflation indicators to watch this summer
  • The levels and signals that would point to stagflation vs. run hot
  • Portfolio implications for stocks, bonds, and commodities

Start your zero-risk free trial of Sevens Report Alpha today and access the webinar and all our recent issues: Access the Full Webinar Here

Is the Outlook Turning More Negative: Market Checkup

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Outlook Turning More Negative? (Market Checkup)
  • Chart: 30-Yr Treasury Yield Rises to the Highest Since 2007

Stock futures are higher as global bonds steady in the wake of a favorable dip in EU inflation ahead of NVDA earnings due out after the close today.

Economically, EU inflation actually cooled in April as the Eurozone Core HICP figure (a CPI equivalent) fell from 2.3% to 2.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 2.2% last month.

There are no noteworthy economic releases today however the Fed’s Barr is scheduled to speak ahead of the bell (9:15 a.m. ET) and the latest FOMC meeting Minutes will be published this afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could rekindle volatility in the fixed income space.

Finally, earnings season continues with quarterly reports due to be released by ADI ($2.89), TGT ($1.37), LOW ($2.96), TJX ($1.01), INTU ($11.13), ELF ($0.01) and by far the most important release of the day (and potentially entire earnings season) NVDA ($1.70).

With NVDA earnings looming large after the close, today’s equity market price action is likely to be driven by bond yields with both the Treasury auctions and FOMC minutes in focus. If yields remain lower, there is a good chance stocks enjoy a relief rally into the NVDA earnings release this afternoon.

 

Understanding Why Tech Stocks Have Exploded Higher (And Is It a Bubble?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Tech Stocks Have Exploded Higher (Again) and If It Is a Bubble This Time
  • Chart: Visualizing AI Revenue Growth

Futures are lower as bond yields continue to rise with oil holding above $100/barrel amid a lack of material U.S.-Iran ceasefire progress and a stagflationary U.K. jobs print.

Economically, the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9% while wage growth firmed to 4.1% vs. (E) 3.7% in May offering markets a fresh whiff of stagflation overnight.

Today, trader focus will be on U.S. home builder data early in the day with Housing Starts (1.410M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%) due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Additionally, there are a few Fed speakers today including Waller (8:00 a.m. ET), Paulson (7:00 p.m. ET), and Venable (7:45 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for a dovish tone to help slow the recent rise in yields which has weighed heavily on the broader equity markets.

Finally, some late season earnings will be released today with notable companies reporting including HD ($3.42), BILI ($0.08), KEYS ($2.04), and TOL ($2.57).

 

Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Sneakily Important Week for Earnings, Economic Growth and Iran
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does May Economic Activity Stay Resilient?

Futures are extending Friday’s declines and are moderately lower as there was no progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia reported limited drone attacks on energy infrastructure and while markets still expect a ceasefire, the chances of a resumption of fighting are rising.

Economically, Chinese data was soft, as Industrial Production (4.1% vs. (E) 6.0%), Fixed Asset Investment (-1.6% vs. (E) 1.7%) and Retail Sales (0.2% vs. (E) 2.0%) all badly missed estimates.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics as President Trump is meeting with his national security team and while not the majority expectation, the chances of a resumption of direct U.S. attacks on Iran are rising (and if that happens, markets will drop). Away from geopolitics, the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) which shouldn’t move markets.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

Futures are sharply lower as rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns pressure stocks following the Trump-Xi summit.

The Trump-Xi meeting ended with few concrete agreements as markets continue to monitor oil-driven inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict.

Economically, Japanese PPI YoY surged above expectations (4.9% vs. (E) 3.0%) and reinforced inflation concerns.

There are two economic reports due out in the U.S. today: Empire Manufacturing (E: 7.8) and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%).

There are no notable earnings today, while investors will continue to monitor Treasury yields, oil prices, and any updates from the Trump-Xi summit.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (April Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (April Launches)

Futures are modestly higher on strong CSCO earnings and optimism surrounding the ongoing U.S.-China summit.

U.S. and China officials continued talks overnight while Xi reportedly expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil and both countries agreed Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon. Oil is rising amid reports of a vessel seized near the Strait of Hormuz.

Economically, UK monthly GDP missed estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on Retail Sales (E: -0.5%) and Jobless Claims (E: 208K). Markets will want stable consumer data following recent mixed economic reports.

Beyond the data, several Fed officials speak today including Schmid (10:15 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:00 p.m. ET), Williams (5:45 p.m. ET), and Barr (7:00 p.m. ET). Earnings today include AMAT ($2.68), and markets will also continue to monitor developments from the U.S.-China summit and oil prices.

 

Sevens Report Technicals – Q2 Rally – Trust But Verify

Markets continue to hit new highs, but beneath the surface the technical backdrop is becoming more fragmented and harder to navigate. That’s the focus of this week’s Sevens Report Technicals.

In the latest issue, we break down key divergences across indices, sectors, yields, commodities, the dollar, and market internals—helping advisors understand what’s really driving this rally and where risks may be building.

For a clearer read on market leadership and the technical signals that will determine what comes next, learn more here: Sevens Report Technicals

MMT Levels Chart: Concentration Risks Rise Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Targets – S&P 500 Chart
  • “Concentration” Approaches ATHs Amid Overbought Conditions

Futures are higher amid strength in tech/semiconductors on news that NVDA’s CEO Huang would join President Trump’s trip to China along with other big tech executives, contradicting previous reports.

Meanwhile oil and bond markets steadied overnight amid no material geopolitical headlines.

Economically, the Q1 Eurozone GDP Flash met estimates at +0.8% Y/Y, down from +1.2% in Q4 while EU Industrial Production fell from -0.6% to -2.1% vs. (E) -1.8% in March underscoring a loss of momentum in global growth underway in 2026.

Looking ahead to today’s session, trader focus will be on the second important inflation print of the week with PPI (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.8% y/y) due out ahead of the bell. A cooler-than-feared release would help ease this week’s upside pressure on bond yields which would be favorable for equities today.

Additionally, there are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Collins (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:15 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:30 p.m. ET (the stronger the demand metrics the better for stocks).

Finally, earnings continue to be released with BABA ($1.02) and CSCO ($0.86) two notable reports to watch today, however the market will be largely focused on Trump’s trip to China and any noteworthy progress towards a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.