Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Evolution of the AI Trade: ROCs, SOCs and SaaS

Futures are flat and bonds are steady despite a continued rise in oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran with focus on control of Hormuz.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey firmed to 97.4 vs. (E) 95.6 in June.

Today is a busy and important day of data, Fed speak and earnings.

The key economic report today is CPI and expectations are as follows: -0.1% m/m, 3.8% y/y, Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  Put simply, an in-line to better than expected number should pressure yields and help stocks while a “hot” number will push the 10-year yield towards a new YTD high (and pressure stocks).

On the Fed front, the key event is Chair Warsh (10:00 a.m. ET) but there are several other speakers including Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), Cook (1:30 p.m. ET) and Bowman (2:55 p.m. ET).  The less concerned they are about inflation, the better (especially Warsh).

Finally, on earnings, the banks kick off the Q2 reporting season and key reports today include: JPM ($5.52), GS ($14.47), BAC ($1.13), C ($2.72), WFC ($1.73).

 

Three Tests for the Rally This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Tests for the Rally This Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Critical Week for Inflation, AI and the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus (and the Numbers Need to be Good)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions after escalation of the U.S./Iran conflict over the weekend.

Iran attacked another commercial ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompting some of the most intense attacks from the U.S. since the start of the conflict.

Despite the escalation, however, oil is up a modest 3% and markets still believe both sides seek a ceasefire (which is why the markets aren’t down more on the news).

This is a busy week of data and earnings, but it starts slowly as there are no notable economic reports today and just two Fed speakers (Bowman (5:25 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:30 p.m. ET)) and they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geopolitics and any reports of ceasefire progress will help stocks bounce.

 

Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as efforts are underway to restore the U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There were no direct U.S. attacks on Iran overnight and U.S. officials said the two sides were still working on re-establishing a ceasefire.

Economically, German HICP (their CPI) was the only notable report and it met expectations at 2.4% y/y.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and any progress on reestablishing the U.S./Iran ceasefire will pressure oil and should help boost stocks.  From an economic standpoint, today is quiet but next week is not, as next week has the potential to impact markets in numerous ways (economic data, inflation and earnings).  More on that in Monday’s Report.

 

Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

Futures are slightly higher on reduced geopolitical fears despite another round of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight.

Early on Thursday President Trump stated Iran “called and wants to make a deal” and that’s again boosting ceasefire hopes.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which was better than expectations (1.0% vs. (E) 1.2%).

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (any signs of further de-escalation will be generally positive) but there are also notable economic reports and some Fed speak.  Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 219K) are the highlight and the lower, the better.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million) but that shouldn’t move markets.

Turning to the Fed, there are two speakers today of which Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) is the most important and if he pushes back against rate hikes, that will be a market positive. Logan (1:30 p.m. ET) also speaks but she’s unlikely to move markets.

 

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July MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations (slight hawkish surprise)

Markets are risk-off as equity futures track global shares lower amid a surge in oil prices and rising bond yields on the back of fresh U.S. military strikes against Iran while President Trump deemed the ceasefire a “waste of time.”

There were no market moving economic reports overnight which left market focus on the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today, there is limited U.S. economic data with just the May Consumer Credit release (E: $17.5B) due out in the afternoon.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and it will be important for demand to hold strong (like we saw yesterday with the 52-Week Bill auction) to help steady the bond market and ultimately set stocks up to rebound.

In addition to Consumer Credit, trader focus will be on the June FOMC Meeting Minutes due out at 2:00 p.m. ET as the market looks for potential clues as to when the Fed plans to raise rates this year.

Finally, there are a pair of earnings releases today with HELE (-$0.13) and LEVI ($0.24) reporting quarterly results, but with the Fed Minutes and geopolitical escalations, neither should materially move markets.

 

July Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table: Expected Earnings Growth Supports the Markets, But Valuations Still Stretched
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways

Futures are lower amid renewed selling pressure in global tech/semiconductor stocks following reports that Iran attacked another cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz overnight which is rekindling geopolitical worries this morning.

Economically, German Industrial Production was strong, rising 0.9% vs. (E) 0.1% in May adding additional upside pressure to global bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: International Trade in Goods (E: $-78.7B) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There are no notable earnings releases today, leaving focus on the global tech selloff and bond yields with the Treasury set to hold a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (the lower yields move the better for stocks).

 

Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Tech Stabilize and the “Rest” of the Market Extend the Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes Wednesday (How Hawkish is the Fed?)

Futures are modestly higher on a continued decline in oil prices and following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Oil prices are down modestly as OPEC+ again boosted production quotas, reminding markets that, away from U.S./Iran tensions, oil supplies are set to rise in the coming years.

Economically, EU data was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates while EU retail sales were in-line.

Focus today will be on economic data via the ISM Services PMI (E: 54.2) and Fed speak from Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and the more Goldilocks the data (solid growth/falling prices) and commentary (pushing back on inflation fears) the better for markets.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • May JOLTS Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower to start Q3 as traders await key economic data and commentary from Fed Chair Warsh.

Economically, the EU Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.4 but slightly topped estimates of 51.3 while Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) favorably fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.6% y/y.

Today, there are multiple important economic reports to watch as the third quarter begins, including the ADP Employment Report (E: 117K), Jobless Claims (E: 220K), ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.9), and Construction Spending (E: 0.2%).

Additionally, Fed Chair Warsh will speak alongside a panel of global central banking peers beginning just ahead of the bell (9:00 a.m. ET) before the Treasury will hold a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today including GIS ($0.82), FDS ($4.44), and MSM ($1.27).

Markets will be looking for more Goldilocks economic data (particularly stable but not “too hot” labor market numbers), a less hawkish tone from Warsh, and more strong quarterly corporate results in order for the Q2 market rally to persist into Q3.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (June)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (June)

Futures are tentatively higher as semiconductor shares continued to stabilize in Asian trade as Q2 came to an end while investors look ahead to today’s ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

Economically, German Retail Sales rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.1% in May while the Unemployment Rate held at 6.3% vs. (E) 6.4% in June; both reports are helping ease worries about a Eurozone economic slowdown in 2026, supporting risk-on money flows regionally.

Today, there are a handful of economic reports due out in the U.S. including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 2.1%), the Chicago PMI (E: 55.2), Consumer Confidence (E: 94.5), and JOLTS (E: 7.307 million). More resilience in the data (but not “too hot”) will be best for stocks to end the quarter on a positive note.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker with Hammack scheduled to deliver remarks at 10:40 a.m. ET as well as a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (the stronger the demand, the better for stocks and bonds today).

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings releases to watch today with NKE ($0.11), STZ ($3.22), and PRGS ($1.15) all due to report quarterly results.

 

With Inflation and AI Spending, It’s All About Sustainability

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • With Inflation and AI Spending, It’s All About Sustainability
  • Weekly Market Preview: Two of the “Big Three” Economic Reports Out This Week

Futures are modestly higher as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran lift sentiment and support a rebound in tech stocks.

The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to halt strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks. Despite this weekend’s headlines, markets remain focused on the reduced risk of further escalation.

There were no major market-moving economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and any headlines that reduce the chances of renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran should be supportive for stocks. Conversely, any signs the ceasefire is breaking down would likely pressure markets.

Away from geopolitics, there are no economic reports or Fed speakers today. The Treasury will auction 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET, and stronger-than-expected demand should help support stocks as the week begins.