How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

What’s in Today’s Report:

• How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).