Posts

The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Resilient Economic Data Keep Supporting Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Week (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the latest U.S./Iran headlines, including the implication of “Operation Freedom” and a report a U.S. Naval vessel was attacked.

On Sunday, President Trump announced “Operation Freedom,” an operation whereby the U.S. military will help escort trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s reaction to this is unclear, but there are unconfirmed reports a U.S. naval vessel was hit by Iranian missiles and oil is rallying in response (and futures are slipping).

Today headlines from the Gulf will dominate markets and if there’s a resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, expect oil to spike and stocks to drop.  Outside of geopolitics, New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 p.m. ET) and for markets, the more dovish he is, the better.

 

How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In Bloomberg

/in , /by

Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks

S&P 500 Closes Near Record as Tech Keeps Rallying: Markets Wrap

“Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks since the government re-opened in late November and that needs to continue to help stocks weather rising AI skepticism,” according to Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on February 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.

 

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

MMT Chart (December Edition)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.

 

Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse?

Futures are showing signs of stabilizing in pre-market trade as investors await fresh (but delayed) economic data, the October Fed meeting minutes, and critical NVDA earnings.

Economically, U.K. and EU CPI/HICP reports met estimates which is helping to quell worries about a resurgence in global inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic releases that will be in focus early: Housing Starts (1.330M), International Trade (E: $-61.0B) as well as a pair of Treasury auctions mid-day: 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 20-Yr Bonds (1:00 p.m. ET).

Regarding the Fed, there are two noteworthy speakers on the calendar today: Miran (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and the October FOMC meeting minutes will be released mid-afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET). The more dovish for markets, the better for stocks.

Finally, there are multiple noteworthy earnings releases today including TGT ($1.76), TJX ($1.22), LOW ($2.97), NVDA ($1.18), PANW ($0.50), however, NVDA results are widely considered to be the most important catalyst of the week as any disappointment could amplify the recent selling pressure and weigh heavily on big-tech, equities more broadly, and risk assets in general.

 

Five Concerning Market Breadth Developments

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Five Concerning Market Breadth Developments

Futures are modestly higher thanks to better than expected tech earnings.

APPL and AMZN both beat estimates and the stocks are rallying 2% and 12% respectively pre-market and pushing futures higher.

Economically, Chinese PMIs were mixed as the manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (49 vs. (E) 49.6).

There are no economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Logan (9:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and given Powell’s hawkish surprise earlier in the week, markets will want to hear a dovish tone from both.

On earnings, the heart of the season is now over but there are still some notable reports today including: XOM ($1.78), CVX ($1.66) and ABBV ($1.77).

Finally, with President Trump back in the U.S., focus will shift to the government shutdown and any chatter about a resolution will be a mild market positive.

 

Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Takeaways from OpenAI’s Secondary Offering (More Evidence of An AI Bubble?)

Futures are slightly higher following another quiet night of news, as there was no notable progress on resolving the government shutdown overnight.

Economic data from Europe was mixed as the EU Services PMI as essentially in-line (51.3 vs. (E) 51.4) and rose since August, while the UK reading was weak, falling to 50.8 vs. (E) 51.9, a solid drop from the 54.2 August level.  That will add to anxiety about the UK economy.

Today there is no jobs report because of the slowdown so all the focus will be on the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.6) and the key for this number is to stay above 50.  If it drops below 50, that will add to slowdown concerns (although don’t be shocked by another “bad is good” rally in the short term).

There are also two Fed speakers today, Logan (1:30 p.m. E.T) and Jefferson (1:40 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.