Posts

What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can We Break the High Oil/High Yields/Lower Stocks Cycle?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Sept. Flash PMIs are the Highlight

Futures are moderately higher on lower oil and lower yields as investors are optimistic this week’s U.N. General Assembly will yield some progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

Geopolitical news over the weekend was actually negative as the Houthis continued to attack Saudi Arabia while the U.S. considered air strikes on the Houthis (which would have further escalated regional tensions).  But, the U.S. optimism is offsetting those negative headlines.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there is one economic report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.08), but barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on geopolitical headlines and any that confirm this optimism about the UN General Assembly yielding progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire will push oil and yields lower and stocks higher.

 

What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market
  • Fed Day

Futures are modestly higher on a bounce ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision, following a quiet night of news.

Geopolitically there were no new negative headlines overnight and that lack of more bad news is prompting a mild bounce in oil (Brent crude down 1%).

Economic data was solid overnight as UK CPI met expectations (core CPI 2.6% y/y) while Euro Zone Industrial Production beat estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) -0.5% m/m).

Focus today will be on the Fed and the best case for markets is a rate hike with a “one or two hikes and done” message.  Outside of the Fed, geopolitics stay important and any positive headlines (again, even in tone) will likely cause a drop in oil/rates and help lift stocks.  Finally, we also get August Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and markets will want to see consumer spending holding up despite growing price headlines.

 

Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news and after economic data was better than expected.

UK and EU flash PMIs beat estimates (EU PMI rose to 52.1 vs. (E 51.6) while the UK PMI jumped to 52.5 vs. (E) 51.5) implying stable global growth.

Treasury yields are little changed overnight and the lack of a continued rally is helping futures lift.

Today focus will stay on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.7) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.8) and Goldilocks numbers (headline readings that meet or slightly beat estimates and no big increases in the price indices) should keep yields stable and help stocks rebound.

 

The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Main Reasons Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Resilient Economic Data Keep Supporting Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Week (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest the latest U.S./Iran headlines, including the implication of “Operation Freedom” and a report a U.S. Naval vessel was attacked.

On Sunday, President Trump announced “Operation Freedom,” an operation whereby the U.S. military will help escort trapped tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s reaction to this is unclear, but there are unconfirmed reports a U.S. naval vessel was hit by Iranian missiles and oil is rallying in response (and futures are slipping).

Today headlines from the Gulf will dominate markets and if there’s a resumption of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, expect oil to spike and stocks to drop.  Outside of geopolitics, New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 p.m. ET) and for markets, the more dovish he is, the better.

 

How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How “Hot” Economic Data Is Fueling Policy Uncertainty

Futures are flat as markets digest Thursday’s big rally following generally “fine” earnings overnight and no changes to the U.S./Iran situation.

Apple (AAPL) posted solid results and the stock is up 3% pre-market, capping an overall strong Q1 reporting season.

Geopolitically, there was no new news on U.S. and Iran and markets still believe a ceasefire agreement is forthcoming.

Today focus will remain, as it has been, on geopolitics and economic data. On U.S./Iran, put simply, any ceasefire agreement will be a market positive (and help reinforce current gains) while any resumption of attacks would be a substantial negative (expect oil to spike 10% or more).

Economically, the key report today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.0) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data of solid headline activity and only modest price increases.  If we get a spike in the price index, it could offset any strong headline number.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but some important report to watch today include: CVX ($0.92), XOM ($1.07), CL ($0.95), MRNA ($-3.02).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In Bloomberg

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Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks

S&P 500 Closes Near Record as Tech Keeps Rallying: Markets Wrap

“Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks since the government re-opened in late November and that needs to continue to help stocks weather rising AI skepticism,” according to Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on February 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.

 

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

MMT Chart (December Edition)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.