Tom Essaye | Investors Will Be Looking For Goldilocks Data

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Dow Opens Higher, but Heads for Third-Straight Weekly Decline

“There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest Problems

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest “Problems”
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed in Focus as Mega-Cap Earnings Continue
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Durable Goods to Shed Light on Business Spending

U.S. futures are tracking global equities higher as part of a broad “risk-on/war-off” move with oil down ~7%, and bond yields lower by 3-5 bp across the curve after the U.S. and Iran halted military strikes amid fresh prospects for a new ceasefire deal.

Economically, the July German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in solid at 86.5 vs. (E) 84.4 which added to the positive sentiment to start the week.

Today we will get one of the more important economic data points of the week via the release of June Durable Goods Orders report (E: 1.6%). Investors will be looking for a healthy, but not “too-hot” release as too strong of a print could put renewed upward pressure on yields.

There are no Fed speakers today with the July FOMC meeting getting underway tomorrow, however, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market and impact equities.

Finally, Q2 earnings season remains in full swing with quarterly results due out from AZN ($2.50), BKR ($0.51), APLD ($-0.20), NVTS ($-0.04), NUE ($4.57), and UHS ($5.66) before the bulk of the remaining Mag-7 earnings reports are due out later this week.

 

Appearing Today on Barron’s Live at Noon ET.

I’m honored to be appearing on Barron’s Live today at noon ET with Barron’s Editor-in-Chief Ben Levisohn and Senior Managing Editor Lauren Rublin.

We’ll be discussing AI, the Iran war, oil prices, rising bond yields, and other market matters!

Click this link to register and listen live!

 

What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s the Reward for Taking Equity Risk Right Now?
  • Jobless Claims Takeaways – Initial Claims Plunge to Multi-Decade Lows

Futures are tentatively higher following yesterday’s biggest stock market selloff of July with oil down 2%-3% amid quiet geopolitical news while global PMI data beat estimates.

Economic data overnight was strong with U.K. Retail Sales jumping 4.2% vs. (E) 2.0% y/y while the EU Composite Flash PMI firmed from 50.0 to 51.9 vs. (E) 50.1 in July.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two notable releases to watch in the U.S., the July PMI Composite Flash (E: 54.2) and New Home Sales (E: 613K) for June.

There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold.

Finally, earnings season continues today with noteworthy companies reporting Q2 results including: VZ ($1.27), AXP ($4.41), NEE ($1.08), CHTR ($9.66), and HCA ($7.57).

 

Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Themes to Watch in Looming AI Earnings
  • What Is the Bab el-Mandeb and Why Is It a Problem?

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical concerns and mixed tech earnings.

GOOGL earnings were solid but the company boosted capex spending plans, increasing concerns about future free cash flow and tech stocks are lower in response.

Geopolitically, Houthis attacked two Saudi ships in the Red Sea, further disrupting global oil transit (oil is up 4%).

Today the only notable economic report is Jobless Claims (E: 214K) and that shouldn’t move markets, so focus will remain on geopolitics (any progress at all towards a ceasefire will pressure oil prices and boost stocks) and on the reaction from tech stocks to mixed earnings (if tech stocks stay soft post GOOGL earnings it’ll weigh on the major indices).

Earnings season continues, meanwhile, and some important reports we’re watching today include: INTC ($0.21), NOK ($0.07), AAL ($0.03), BX ($1.32), LMT ($7.32), FCX ($0.60), RTX ($1.66).

 

Sevens Report Technicals

When sector volatility reaches levels only seen around 2000, 2001, and 2009, it deserves more than a passing glance. That’s exactly what we explore in this week’s Sevens Report Technicals.

Beyond the major indices, we examine where money is rotating beneath the surface, why Value continues to outperform Growth, how Treasury, credit, and volatility markets are either confirming or challenging the equity narrative, and what those signals could mean for portfolio positioning.

If you want to better understand whether this is simply another pullback or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in market leadership, click here to learn more about this week’s Technicals report and see why advisors rely on it to stay one step ahead.

 

Two Conditions Must Be Met For A Rebound | Tom Essaye

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[New York Stock Market] Falls on Middle East Tensions…Semiconductor Stocks Attract Bargain Buying

Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, also analyzed that for the market to rebound, two conditions must be met: strong earnings from major technology companies and clear signs of stabilization in the Middle East.

Also, click here to view the full article on The Asia Business Daily published on July 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tom Essaye Suggested Investors Will Be Looking For Strong Earnings

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Nasdaq 100 Jumps 1% as Chip Stocks Rebound Before Big Tech Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter, suggested investors will be looking for strong earnings, continued demand, and evidence that technology companies are maintaining discipline rather than accelerating the current competition in AI-related component spending.

Also, click here to view the full article on GuruFocus.com published on July 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tech Decline Part Two: Staying Long With Less Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part Two: Ways to Stay Long Tech But Reduce AI Infrastructure

Futures are in the red as oil prices hit six-week highs overnight (WTI topped $88/barrel) amid ongoing geopolitical angst surrounding the U.S.-Iran war, but global equities are stabilizing as the fear bid in energy is beginning to show signs of near-term exhaustion.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell -0.2% to 2.6% vs. (E) 2.7% Y/Y while Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% Y/Y, the latest evidence that global inflation pressures have potentially peaked.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak (pre-July meeting blackout period) but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on longer-term inflation expectations and potentially impact equities (the stronger the demand for the bonds, the better).

The primary focus of today’s session will remain the fluid geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (any signs of a ceasefire deal on the table will be a positive) and the Q2 earnings season which remains in full swing with GEV ($3.16), T ($0.59), PM ($2.04), TSLA ($0.53), GOOGL ($2.87), TXN ($1.91), and LUV ($0.52) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

Markets Will Want to See Strong Results Says Tom Essaye

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US Stocks Rebound From Selloff as Nvidia, Other Chipmakers Rise

“Markets will want to see strong results and more signs of robust demand, but also evidence of restraint and a focus on stability and not a further doubling down on the current AI component spending war,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full article on AdvisorsPerspectives.com published on July 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part One: Five Reasons Tech Has Dropped

Futures are higher as global tech shares rebound amid easing geopolitical fears with focus shifting to key tech/semiconductor earnings looming.

Economically, the U.K. Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% vs. (E) 5.0% while the German ZEW Survey’s Economic Sentiment figure jumped 8.3 points to 26.3 vs. (E) 18.0 helping shore up global growth estimates.

There are no notable economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak, however there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

The quiet macro calendar will leave trader focus on earnings with HAL ($0.54), GM ($3.13), SCHW ($1.53), MMM ($2.27), ALK ($-0.97), COF ($4.88), and IBKR ($0.63) all due to report quarterly results today.

 

Could Be A “Canary In The Coal Mine” For The Stock Market

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Tom Essaye said that cheap AI stock valuations could signal that investors are growing fearful that the data center boom could come to a halt.

Why Oracle’s recent credit downgrade could be a warning sign for stocks

According to Tyler Richey, a technical analyst at Sevens Report Research, it could be a “canary in the coal mine” for the stock market.

The ratings agency cut Oracle’s rating from BBB, citing heavy infrastructure spending and it’s high exposure to OpenAI as risks to its ability to meet its debt obligations. While the news went relatively unnoticed in the stock market, Sevens Report says equity investors should pay attention, as it could be an early warning of bigger issues on the horizon.

“ORCL very well may turn out to be the first of the mega-cap-tech ‘Hyperscalers’ to be rolling over into what could (and is increasingly likely to) prove to be the early stages of a longer-term, cyclical bear market for equities,” Richey wrote in a July 13 client note.

“A higher trending junk bond yield index with stocks trading near all-time highs is a troublesome combination,” Richey said.

“Bottom line, the ORCL downgrade last week served as a stark reminder that critical signals from the bond market can be subtle at first, but offer both fair warning of a potential downturn, and a rare opportunity to take action to protect principle in riskier equity and bond market holdings,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on July 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.