The ‘Heart’ of Earnings Season Starts Today

/in , /by

SpaceX Set the Stage. Now the AI Trade Rests on Meta and Tesla.

“In many ways, the ‘heart’ of earnings season starts today, even though earnings season is almost two weeks old. I say that, because the most important stocks in the market will release results over the next two weeks,” wrote Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report.

Tech earnings face two questions, Essaye said. “Will cap-ex stay strong and does AI produce more direct revenue?”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on October 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Earnings Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Update
  • Credit Spread Update: Any Warning Signs?

Futures are sharply lower as renewed concerns over AI spending following Tesla and Meta earnings weigh on tech stocks.

Geopolitically, renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have sent oil prices surging as fears of broader Middle East supply disruptions escalate.

Economically, there were no notable economic data overnight.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 200K) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%). Claims near estimates should keep the labor market picture relatively steady, while a weaker-than-expected Leading Indicators reading would reinforce concerns about slowing growth.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers scheduled. Notable earnings include PG ($1.89), UNP ($3.47), WDC ($3.99), LMT ($7.49), VLO ($21.28), SPOT ($3.10), and BX ($1.26).

 

Is Economic Growth Strong Enough to Keep This Bull Market Going?

AI concerns, geopolitical tensions and higher interest rates are testing investors, but economic growth remains a critical support for this bull market.

The question is whether that support is weakening and whether persistent inflation could force the Fed to become more aggressive.

In today’s Alpha webinar at 1:30 p.m. ET, I’ll examine the latest growth indicators, inflation trends, Fed policy and what they mean for stocks.

More importantly, I’ll explore how to distinguish a normal correction in an ongoing bull market from a warning of something more serious.

Alpha subscribers also receive the webinar recording and PowerPoint slides for use in client conversations.

Learn More About Today’s Alpha Webinar →

 

Earnings Preview (What Really Matters)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Preview (What Really Matters)

Futures are slightly higher on better than expected tech earnings overnight, although higher oil prices are keeping gains modest.

SpaceX (SPCX up 10% pre-open) and Super Micro (SMCI up 12% pre-open) beat earnings and are injecting some AI Enthusiasm back into the market.

Economically, UK inflation ran hot as both CPI (Core CPI up 2.8% y/y vs. (E) 2.7% y/y) beat estimates.

Today there are no notable economic reports so focus will remain on geopolitics and earnings.  Geopolitically, U.S. officials are in Russia so and “progress” on diplomacy will likely pressure oil and help boost stocks.

On earnings, the first hyperscaler reports today, META ($6.54) and other reports we’re watching include TSLA ($0.22), LRCX ($2.17), PM ($2.30), TMO ($6.40) and TXN ($2.40).

 

MOVE Index: An AI Bubble Burst Indicator to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MOVE Index:  An AI Bubble Burst Indicator to Watch

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

There were no notable geopolitical events overnight and all three conflicts (Russia/Ukraine, Iran/U.S., Saudi/Houthis) remain status quo (tensions and fighting across all three).

Economically, data in Europe ran “hot” as German PPI and the UK Labour Market Report were stronger than expected.

Today the economic calendar is quiet with Housing Starts (1.305M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.1%) the only notable reports (and they shouldn’t move markets).

On earnings, the season really starts to heat up today and markets will be looking for good results and optimistic guidance. Reports to watch today include: GE ($2.02), NFLX ($0.82), RTX ($1.78), ISRG ($2.13), COF ($5.45), MMM ($2.41), GM ($3.55), NOC ($7.22).

How Big of a Problem is AI for this Market?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Big of a Problem is AI for this Market?
  • Understanding Why Treasury Yields Dropped Last Week (Important)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Tech Earnings stabilize AI Sentiment?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Flash PMIs the Key This Week

Futures are modestly higher as tech stocks bounce from Friday’s declines while oil prices dropped 1% overnight on hopes of diplomatic progress between Russia and Ukraine.

Tech stocks are seeing an oversold bounce ahead of some important tech sector earnings reports this week (SPCX & META) but nothing materially “positive” occurred overnight.

Geopolitically, Russia has apparently proposed a Putin/Xi/Trump summit to negotiate a Ukraine deal that would ultimately produce a ceasefire.

Today there is only one notable economic report, Housing Market Index (E:31), and that shouldn’t move markets so focus will stay on geopolitics and any diplomatic progress on any of the three wars will be a positive for markets.

On earnings, tech earnings ramp up later this week.  Some reports we’re watching today include FITB ($1.09), STLD ($5.42), WRB ($1.14), CCK ($2.25).

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are pointing higher as investors take comfort in Fed Chair Warsh’s flexible stance on rates.

Warsh avoided signaling whether the Fed will hold or raise rates later this year, and markets viewed his comments as less hawkish than feared following two days of hotter-than-expected inflation data.

Economically, Eurozone HICP met expectations at 3.8% y/y, while Core HICP also met estimates at 2.5% y/y.

Today, focus will be on Import & Export Prices (E: 0.6% m/m, 0.9% m/m) and Industrial Production (E: 0.4%). Markets will be looking for signs that price pressures are not broadening further.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers scheduled today, while earnings include TRV ($7.01), TFC ($1.17), MTB ($4.98), CFG ($1.38), and RF ($0.67.

 

Understanding the Biggest AI Risk (for This Market)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding the Biggest AI Risk (for This Market)

Futures are modestly higher on strong tech earnings and despite further escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

Semiconductor company ASML posted much better than expected quarterly results and order backlog and that’s helping the entire AI infrastructure sector to rally this morning.

The Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco headquarters and threatened to target energy infrastructure, sending oil 1% higher.

Today focus will be on CPI (E: 0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y) and, more importantly, Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y).  Put simply, we need to see in-line or better than expected numbers to further pressure Treasury yields and if we get that, stocks should rally.  Conversely, if inflation metrics run hot, look for October rate hike odds (and yields) to rise again, likely pressuring stocks.  Away from CPI we also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (1:30 p.m. ET) and Bowman (10:55 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, they continue to roll on with a focus on the banks and notable reports today include BAC ($1.11), MS ($2.83) and BLK ($14.01).  Additionally, Anthropic will release some revenue information to investors this afternoon and that will likely become public. If that revenue information is better than expected it could be a late day boost for tech/markets (and if it’s weak, a late day negative).

 

How Three Global Conflicts Are Impacting Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Three Global Conflicts Are Impacting Markets

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as investors await major bank earnings today and CPI tomorrow.

Oil prices are down close to 2% on reports the U.S. and Iran are still negotiating over a Hormuz transit agreement.

Economically, the only notable report was German CPI, which met expectations (0.6% m/m and 3.3% y/y).

Today focus will be mainly on earnings and, as usual, any AI or geopolitical headlines. That said, there is one notable economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 3.965 million) and two Fed speakers: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET), Collins (4:00 p.m. ET).

On earnings, the “season” really kicks off today with big bank and healthcare earnings and key reports to watch include: JPM ($5.94), JNJ ($2.53), UNH ($4.12), GS ($12.90), WFC ($1.85).  From the banks, positive commentary on the consumer is key and if management is upbeat on consumer spending, it’ll be a general market positive.

 

More Proof of How Vulnerable This Market is to AI Disappointment

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Proof of How Vulnerable This Market is to AI Disappointment
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Yields Continue to Move Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week (CPI Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher following mixed geopolitical news over the weekend.

Fighting between the Saudis and Houthis escalated substantially over the weekend following Houthi attacks on the Riyadh airport and the increased tensions are pushing oil prices higher (Brent up 0.75% this morning).

In Russia/Ukraine, President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine that would push prices lower if it holds, although the market is rightly skeptical that it will.

Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Hammack (12:10 p.m. ET), so focus will remain on geopolitics and AI (as it’s been for the last week).

 

Where to Still Get High Dividends in this Market

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where to Still Get High Dividends in this Market

Futures are higher, led by tech, as OpenAI’s upbeat revenue outlook helps ease concerns about the AI trade.

Oil prices are retreating from Thursday’s spike after President Trump ruled out military strikes on Iran before the November midterms.

Economically, there were no noteworthy economic reports overnight.

Today, focus will be on Consumer Confidence (E: 48.0) at 10:00 a.m. ET. Markets will be looking for a stable reading and contained inflation expectations amid elevated oil prices.

Finally, Delta Air Lines (E: $1.93) reports earnings before the open, while Fed Governor Collins is scheduled to speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.