Three Pillars of the Rally Updated

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Three Pillars of the Rally Updated: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Pillars of the Rally Updated (An Important Change to Watch)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Friday’s Flash Composite PMI in Focus

Futures are steady after a mostly quiet weekend of financial news and thinning volumes coming into the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving trading week.

Geopolitically, Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized a cargo ship in the Red Sea. This is rekindling a fear bid in global energy markets as seaborne oil cargoes are viewed as “at risk.” The rise in oil prices is modestly pressuring Treasuries this morning (yields up slightly).

Economically, German PPI met estimates of -11.0% Y/Y in October further solidifying the global peak-inflation argument.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report on the calendar with Leading Indicators (E: -0.6%) due out shortly after the open and there is just one Fed speaker midday: Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET).

One potential catalyst that could shake up markets today is the 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak results could trigger a rebound in yields. Especially given fading attendance this week and subsequently less liquid market conditions across asset classes.

Three Pillars

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update
  • Continuing Claims Hit 2-Year High: Chart
  • Philly Fed Survey Takeaways – More Signs of Stagflation
  • Industrial Production Confirms Slowdown in Factor Sector

Stock futures are modestly higher this morning as soft U.K. consumer spending data. Combined with an as-expected drop in EU inflation are supporting a continued bid in bond markets.

Economically, U.K. Retail Sales fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.3%. As the Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates across the board, falling significantly from 4.3% to 2.9% y/y. Positively the “Narrow Core” figure eased to 4.2% from 4.5%.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.35 million) and barring a big surprise, the release should not move markets.

There are a handful of Fed officials speaking today with Barr & Collins, Daly, Goolsbee, and Collins again all on the schedule. If the Fed speakers stick to the same narrative (less hawkish) expect more of the same sideways, digestive trading in equities today with the threat of a continued move higher based on bullish market momentum.

Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard Update

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New York Empire State Manufacturing Release Affect on Oil

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A “Terrible” New York Empire State Manufacturing Release: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices finish lower as U.S. crude supplies mark a 2-week climb of more than 17 million barrels

WTI crude-oil futures had been trading lower ahead of the inventory data as investors digested a “terrible” New York Empire State Manufacturing release, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

The economic data “poured some cold water on soft economic landing hopes, while the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has yet to have a meaningful impact on the global oil markets,” he told MarketWatch.

“As such, the fear-bid in oil has been slowly but steadily unwinding over the last month,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 15th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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EIA Data Changes: Impact on Oil Inventories

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EIA Data Changes: Impact on Oil Inventories: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Why the U.S. government is changing the way it collects data on the oil market

It appears that previous data collection processes had “‘loopholes’. Which allowed certain condensates and ‘other oils’ to not be reported in inventories. But now will require them to report in total oil inventory figures,” he said.

Looking through the changes to the EIA’s data collection process, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, said it was “not very clear exactly how the data will be affected.”

The simplest takeaway is that the next effect of this change should result in oil inventories being higher than they previously were, said Richey.

The EIA in March explained the difference in its estimates of supply. As disposition had increased in its U.S. crude-oil balances it was studying the growing difference. It identified ways in which it has been “overstating disposition and understating supply.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on November 15th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

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Risks Are Skewed To The Upside

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Risks Are Skewed To The Upside: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

U.S. oil prices give up gains to finish flat ahead of government data on crude supplies

Still, “based on the risk-on tone in equity markets so far in November amid soft landing hopes. Risks are skewed to the upside into the end of the week. Pending good consumer demand readings for refined products in the EIA data,” he told MarketWatch.

“It seems like a combination of the less optimistic demand outlook in the IEA’s monthly outlook report and trader positioning into a double dose of weekly EIA data releases Wednesday led to oil to come off session’s price highs, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

The EIA report will include supply data covering two weeks — for the weeks ended Nov. 3 and Nov. 10 — after a planned systems upgrade led the EIA to delay last week’s report releases.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on November 14th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Risks Are Skewed

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Risk of Another U.S. Government Shutdown

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Risk of Another U.S. Government Shutdown: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Fall to Start a Busy Economic Week

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye notes markets are digesting Friday night’s news that Moody’s cut its outlook on U.S. credit to negative, though it kept the rating itself. Markets may also react to rising tensions in the Middle East as the U.S. launches airstrikes in Syria.

“Beyond today, though, in addition to the economic catalysts this week, risk of another U.S. government shutdown is rising as there needs to be a short-term spending deal by Friday to avoid a shutdown,” Esaye writes.

“So, any progress on that front today will help markets, while any negative headlines will likely provide a small headwind.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on November 13th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

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Stock Rally, 1o-Yr Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy

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Stock Rally, Treasury Yield, and Fed Policy: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

But the subsequent rally for stocks after the Nov. 1 Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 6% over eight days, and a 50 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield were “overdone and not governed by facts,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.
“Meanwhile, if we think about what the Fed said last week, namely that the rise in the 10-year treasury yield was doing the Fed’s work for it and as a result they may not have to hike rates, then the short/sharp decline in the 10-year yield we’ve seen could essentially remove the reason for the Fed not having to hike rates — and that could put a rate hike back on the table!” he wrote. “That’s essentially what Powell reminded us of yesterday and that, along with the poor Treasury auction, pushed yields higher,” setting up pressure on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on November 11th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Treasury Yield

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Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two

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Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Stocks Rallied Part Two (Visual Aid)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are little changed despite underwhelming earnings as markets further digest Tuesday’s rally.  There was no notable economic data overnight.

CSCO (down 11%) and PANW (down 5%) both posted disappointing earnings although the positive macro news from earlier this week is helping markets stay buoyant.

Today we have several important economic reports as well as numerous Fed speakers.  For the economic data, the key remains “Goldilocks” readings that aren’t so good it makes the market rethink dovish Fed expectations, yet not so bad it increases hard landing worries.  Key reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 222K), Philly Fed (E: -11.0), and the Housing Market Index (E: 40) and close to in-line readings for each will help markets continue to hold Tuesdays’ gains.

On the Fed front, there are a slew of speakers today but the most important one is Williams (9:25 a.m. ET) because he’s part of Fed leadership.  Don’t be surprised if Fed officials push back on the markets aggressively dovish expectations today but unless Williams comes out and says another rate hike is very possible, markets will likely ignore the rhetoric.  The list of speakers today includes:  Barr, Mester, Williams, Waller, and Cook.

Understanding Why Stocks Rallied

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Was the CPI a Bullish Gamechanger?

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Was the CPI a Bullish Gamechanger? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was the CPI Report a Bullish Gamechanger?
  • CPI Data Analysis and Takeaways

Stock futures are extending the November gains this morning and Treasuries are steady after more cool inflation readings in Europe and stabilizing economic data in China.

Economically, Chinese FAI and Industrial Production figures met estimates while Retail Sales importantly accelerated to 7.6% vs. (E) 7.0% in October up from 5.5% in September.

In Europe, CPI data from the U.K., France, and Italy all met estimates or came in “cooler” than expected. This bolsters the view that global central banks are done with rate hikes, fueling risk-on money flows today.

Today, there are several economic reports to watch early: PPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -3.0), and Retail Sales (E: -0.3%). The market will be looking for more signs of cooling inflation in the PPI release. And no major surprises either way in the Empire and Retail Sales releases as the market is still vulnerable to data that is “too hot” (risks of more Fed tightening) or “too cold” (risks of a “hard landing”).

There are also two Fed speakers today: Barr (9:30 a.m. ET) and Barkin (3:30 p.m. ET) but neither are expected to move markets.

Was the CPI Report a Bullish Gamechanger?

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What to Tell Clients Who Are Worried About U.S. Treasuries

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What to Tell Clients Who Worry About U.S. Treasuries

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Tell Clients Who Are Worry About U.S. Treasuries.
  • Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Politically, a “Continuing Resolution” to fund the government will be voted on in the House today and if passed, will avert a government shutdown.

Economically, the UK unemployment rate and German ZEW Business Expectations Index both beat expectations (although they aren’t moving markets).

Today focus will be on the CPI report and expectations are as follows:  CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 3.3% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 4.1% y/y).  Generally speaking, numbers that show core CPI is continuing to decline will be welcomed by markets. While readings that imply the decline in inflation is “stuck” or inflation is bouncing back, will likely result in declines in both stocks and bonds.

We also have several Fed speakers today including Barr, Mester, and Goolsbee. We’ll be watching for their reaction to the CPI report. If it makes them more hawkish that’s a negative and more dovish, a positive).

What to Tell Clients

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