Tom Essaye appeared on TD Ameritrade Network

Tom Essaye appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on February 4, 2019.

“The whole tech space, is getting a boost from Friday, positive comments on U.S.- China trade deal from Trump and…”Watch the full interview here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on February 3, 2019.

“The S&P 500 was priced for perfection in the economy, earnings and the Fed, and while we’ve seen a lot of positive improvement, we’re a long way…”

Read the full article here.

An Old Wall Street Indicator

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why an “Old Wall Street Indicator” Isn’t So Optimistic this Year
  • Citi’s Bullish Call on Copper

Futures are trading higher with EU shares this morning on the back of strong earnings from BP while the mixed GOOGL results from yesterday are digested along with the Trump-Powell dinner ahead of tonight’s SOTU speech.

Economically, Composite PMI data released overnight was largely in-line with estimates and is not materially moving markets.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 57.1) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

That will leave earnings in focus with notables: VIAB ($1.02) before the open and SNAP (-$0.08), DIS ($1.57), and ALL ($1.01) after the close.

Beyond earnings, investors are already looking ahead to tonight’s State of the Union Address which is the only significant macro-catalyst this week.

Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC

Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on February 4, 2019.

“Part of the reason that the market reacted so positively to the earnings is because expectations had fallen into this earnings season. From a sentiment perspective, it was definitely better than…” Read the full article here.

What’s Next for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why We Still Think Stocks Are in a Trading Range (And We’re Near the Top)
  • Two Indicators That Would Make Us More Bullish on Stocks (In the Currency & Bond Section)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are flat following a very quiet weekend of no incremental news (the weekend news flow was similar to the scoring in the first half of the super bowl).

The only notable economic report was Chinese Service PMI which met expectations at 53.6 vs. (E) 53.9.  But, the composite PMI still dropped to 50.9 vs. the previous 52.2 so there are still legitimate reasons to worry about Chinese, and global, economic growth.

Today there are no notable economic reports and the only notable earnings report comes after the close (GOOGL ($11.08)) so I’d expect a generally quiet trading day as investors digest the recent rally/news.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on February 1, 2019.

“Under normal circumstances we would have had a negative reaction to this number, because it would cause the market to expect more rate hikes. But this won’t change the Fed’s calculus. Also, jobs are a really…” Read the full article here.

U.S./China Trade Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • U.S./China Trade Update (What’s Expected Now and What It Means for Markets)

Futures are slightly lower as disappointing economic data offset U.S./China trade optimism.

Worries about global growth persist as the Caixin Chinese Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 vs. (E) 49.7 while European data wasn’t much better. The British Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.8 vs. (E) 53.5 while the EU reading was 50.5.

Today focus will be on the jobs report but the ultra-dovish Fed has taken some of the impact away from this report, because it’ll have to be incredibly strong to make the Fed skew more hawkish.  Expectations are: Jobs Adds of 158K, Unemployment of 3.9%,  M/M Wage gains of 0.3%.

In some ways, the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 54.0) is the more important number today because if that’s a soft number, it’ll fan fears the Fed is reacting to a U.S. economy that’s losing momentum, so that’s the number I’m watching closely today.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared on Yahoo Finance on January 31, 2019

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye appeared on Yahoo Finance on January 31, 2019. Watch the entire interview here.

Was the Fed A Bullish Gamechanger?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Fed Takeaways – Was It a Bullish Gamechanger? (Not Yet)
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA/Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly higher as markets digest yesterday’s very dovish Fed statement and subsequent rally, while Chinese economic data beat expectations but still was weak in the absolute.

Chinese January Manufacturing PMI beat estimates at 49.5 vs. (E) 49.3, but it still signals outright contraction, so this doesn’t imply stabilization in that economy.

Other economic data from Europe, including Euro Zone GDP and German Unemployment, met expectations.

Today there are two economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and the Employment Cost Index (E: 0.8%) but neither should materially move markets.

So, focus will move back to earnings (there are a lot of reports today and GE has started us on the right foot) and any headlines from the U.S./China trade talks.  Regarding U.S./China trade, we don’t expect a deal from this meeting, but more reports of progress will support (and likely extend) yesterday’s rally.

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Axios on January 30, 2019

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Axios on January 30, 2019. Read the full article here.