Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The Market’s Just Waiting For The Light To Turn Green

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The Stock Market Is at a Stop Light. Wall Street Awaits ‘Green Light’ on Iran, Inflation.

“We really are at a little stoplight on the drive higher, and the market’s just waiting for the light to turn green on Hormuz and on CPI, and then I think the rally will resume,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

For the market, the on-again-off-again nature of supposed talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have become a “nuisance” for markets, Essaye says, though he thinks Wall Street sees an agreement as inevitable. In the meantime, WTI crude oil futures were up 1.3% to $83.20 a barrel.

“That’s not on the forefront of the market’s radar, but it should be,” Essaye says. “Because if we get a hot CPI tomorrow, they’re going to take a run toward 5%, probably by the end of the week. And that would be a new negative for markets.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Earnings Growth Is Really Acting As A Massive Support For The Market

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Tech Stocks Slide Again Ahead of Key Inflation Reports

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that Wall Street is viewing the mixed signals over the key energy shipping choke point as “a nuisance.”

“All the market cares about is transit through the Strait getting back to normal, and that is going to happen,” says Essaye. “This sort of mindless delay that we’re going through, and back and forth, is now just sort of an annoyance more than anything else.”

The attention will turn to inflation starting with the Wednesday release of the consumer price index for July, followed the respective update on wholesale prices on Thursday. Essaye doesn’t expect the data to spark a broader stock market swoon.

“The earnings growth is really sort of acting as a massive support for the market, so for that to be overcome, we have to have really significantly negative macro risks,” says Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “And they’re just not there.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 11th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Most Important Headline This Week (It’ll Surprise You)

Futures are slightly higher despite post earnings selling in AI linked tech stocks, as lower oil boosts futures.

CSCO earnings weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down 6% pre-market, although it’s not weighing on the rest of the market.

There was no discernable progress on U.S./Iran peace talks but oil dropped 1% overnight on falling fears of escalation.

Today focus will remain on inflation and the economy via PPI  (E: 0.2% m/m, 4.9% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 203K).  The lower PPI and the closer jobless claims are to 200k, the better for markets (it’d be a Goldilocks reading). We also have one Fed speaker today, Barkin (8:40 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, tech results continue and today’s key report is AMAT ($3.38).

 

August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August MMT Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • The SPX-VIX Ratio Has Entered Dangerous Territory

Futures are higher, led by tech after SMCI was the latest AI infrastructure name to post blowout quarterly earnings after the close yesterday (shares up 9%+ pre-market), rekindling AI industry optimism ahead of the July CPI release.

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.8% y/y in July, unchanged from June, helping shore up hopes that inflation pressures have peaked this summer.

Today, the market’s primary focus will be on the July U.S. CPI data due out ahead of the open: (E) 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y, Core CPI (E) 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be more widely watched and has the potential to move markets (the stronger the demand the better, especially in the wake of the CPI release).

Finally, with earnings having a positive impact on the tape this morning quarterly results from NBIS ($-0.67), CSCO ($0.99), and COHR ($1.43) will all be closely monitored as AI optimism has begun to pickup again and buoy the broader equity markets this week. Any material disappointments have the potential to reverse the pre-market bid and send stocks lower as sentiment remains fragile right now.

 

August Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Market Multiple Table – Enough Positives to Continue to Support Elevated Multiples

Futures are steady this morning amid mostly quiet news flow as focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s CPI release.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, topping estimates calling for 97.3.

Tomorrow’s CPI release will be the most important economic report for the week but there is one release that could impact markets today: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05 million) due out shortly after the opening bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (the latter will be more closely watched as a “tell” regarding Fed policy rate expectations).

Finally, earnings season continues today and investors will want to see more robust top and bottom line results as well as strong forward guidance with SE ($0.78), CAH ($2.42), ONON ($0.38), SMCI ($0.56), CRWV ($-1.67), and LITE ($2.62) all reporting today.

 

Tom Essaye Argues The Risks Will Be Worse In The Case Of A Too Hot Report

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Dow and Nasdaq Head in Different Directions

Wall Street is holding its collective breath ahead of tomorrow’s July nonfarm payrolls report. The threat of higher interest rates have traders holding out hope for a report that’s not too hot, but not too cold, either. Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye argues the risks will be worse in the case of a “too hot report.”

“A very strong jobs report could boost wage-driven inflation fears, which could cause the 10-year yield to rise (that would clearly be a headwind on stocks),” Essaye writes. “Conversely, even if the jobs report is soft (and the August release can sometimes be), it’s just one bad labor market indicator (while all the rest are showing stability).”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on August 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Putting New Highs in the Right Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New Highs in the Right Context
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the “Chase” Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation is Key This Week (CPI on Wednesday)

Futures are slightly higher despite no progress on the Strait of Hormuz reopening or a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

A ship was attacked over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz and there are no more details on an Iran/Oman agreement on the Strait, so traffic remains effectively halted.

However, there appears to be no appetite from the U.S. to resume air strikes, so the lack of progress isn’t a negative for markets and oil prices are only up modestly (a bit over 1%).

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitics and any details that imply increased Strait of Hormuz transit will pressure oil and help support stocks.

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Equity Risk Premium Part 2: Index Deep Dive

Futures are slightly higher following a night of generally solid earnings and no geopolitical surprises.

Earnings were good in aggregate overnight (MCHP, TWLO, TEAM all beat) and that’s helping futures to rally slightly.

Geopolitically, markets are still awaiting the details on a Hormuz deal, but fears of escalation remain low.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and estimates are as follows:  88K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate and 3.5% Wage Growth.  An in-line to slightly better than expected report with stable unemployment and wage growth is the best-case scenario for stocks, as it implies strong labor market but no additional inflation risk. If we get that outcome, it should help stocks rally.

The other notable events today are Consumer Credit (E: $10.5B) one Fed speaker, Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

 

Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Cloud Companies Next Up in the AI Infrastructure Boom?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Too Hot Worse than Too Cold)

Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings.

Tech earnings disappointed overnight (especially memory companies WDC and SNDK) and that’s weighing on tech stocks pre-open, but not the broader market.

Economically, EU data was mixed as German Manufacturers Orders beat expectations while EU Retail Sales missed.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and specifically the details around a Strait of Hormuz passage agreement.  Economically, there are two notable economic reports,  Jobless Claims (E: 201K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 0.7%, 2.2%) and in-line numbers will help to support the market (that’d be more Goldilocks data).

On the Fed, we do have one speaker today, Musalem (5:30 p.m. ET), but he’s after the close and won’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season is winding down but there are still some notable reports today including:  COP ($2.96), DDOG ($0.13), RGTI ($-0.05).

 

Where Is the Market Pointing Next?

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Sevens Report Technicals