FOMC Takeaways (Not Good)

FOMC Decision Takeaways, futures are slightly higher, it was a quiet night of news as there were no new headlines on trade, today focus will remain on the economic data, which becomes even more important in the face of the not dovish enough Fed. We get to notable reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 16.5) and if the later misses expectations, look for more selling and more.

FOMC Preview

FOMC preview, US stock futures are enjoying a pre-Fed bounce this morning, despite the bounce in futures, news flows were actually bearish since yesterday’s close as both FDX and MU made cautious comments about slowing global growth in their respective earnings calls and both cut guidance for 2019, In the US today, there is one economic report due to be released: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.190M) and a “beat” would be well received after the string of soft housing data points of recent, but frankly all eyes will be on the Fed and the report will not materially move markets, and more.

Pain Trade Sevens Report

Political Risks to this Market

Political risks to this market, futures are sharply lower (about 1%), Chinese Retail Sales (8.1% vs. (E) 9.0%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 5.9%) both badly missed estimates, geopolitically it was a quiet night although Chinese officials confirmed the reduction of auto tariffs to 15% from 40% (this was already pledged but it is good to see it will be enacted on Jan 1.) and more.

Economic Breaker Panel December Update

Economic Breaker Panel December update (more signs of weakness), EIA Analysis – can the bounce in oil hold?, Futures are slightly higher following a very quiet night of news, as markets digest recent volatility, economic data was sparse as German CPI was the only notable number and it met expectations (2.3% yoy), today the highlight event is the ECB Meeting (E: No Change to Rates) but other than a potentially dovish tone from Draghi at the press conference, this shouldn’t impact markets too much. and more.

Transports low - a warning from dow theory

Why Markets Are Dropping Again

Why markets are dropping again (And Why We Don’t Think It’s a Bearish Gamechanger), what needs to happen in the short term for markets to stabilize, jobs report preview, futures are sharply lower as the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada has added to uncertainty on U.S./China trade, while oil is down sharply due to OPEC disappointment and more.

OPEC’s Catch-22

OPEC’s Catch-22 Explained, ISM Manufacturing PMI Analysis, futures are modestly lower as the Trump-Xi “trade truce” continues to be digested this morning while the yield curve flattened further overnight, underscoring growth concerns, the major underlying story this morning is the yield curve as the 2’s-10s spread compressed to new lows overnight (13bp) and the 2’s-5’s actually inverted. and more.