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Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Consumer Holding Up and How Hawkish Is the Fed?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes (Wed) and First Look at August Data

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Chinese economic data was soft as Industrial Production (4.5% vs. (E) 5.0%), Retail Sales (0.6% vs. (E) 1.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-6.7% vs. (E) -6.1%) all missed estimates.

Geopolitically, there was no progress on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks but, positively, any military escalation still remains unlikely.

Today focus will be on the economy as we get the first look at August data via the Empire Manufacturing Index (10.60) and the best case for markets is for a Goldilocks number of solid growth (so at or slightly above expectations) and, almost as importantly, a continued decline in the price indices (which shows inflation pressures are continuing to recede in August).  The other notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 33) but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye | Investors Will Be Looking For Goldilocks Data

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Dow Opens Higher, but Heads for Third-Straight Weekly Decline

“There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analyst Quoted by ABC News

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Why did the stock market soar in the first half of 2026? Experts explain

“The Magnificent Seven was all the craze in 2024 and 2025. Now it’s sluggish,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News. “You’ve got leadership in other corners of tech, especially chipmakers.”

“Dovish expectations of a rate cut this year were a narrative in the first half of 2026. Now an interest rate hike is being priced in. There’s more risk and less fundamental support from the Fed,” Richey said.

Still, Richey acknowledged a large degree of uncertainty.

“It has been extremely challenging to time this market,” Richey added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Abcnews.com published on June 30th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Three Tests for the Rally This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Tests for the Rally This Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Critical Week for Inflation, AI and the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus (and the Numbers Need to be Good)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions after escalation of the U.S./Iran conflict over the weekend.

Iran attacked another commercial ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompting some of the most intense attacks from the U.S. since the start of the conflict.

Despite the escalation, however, oil is up a modest 3% and markets still believe both sides seek a ceasefire (which is why the markets aren’t down more on the news).

This is a busy week of data and earnings, but it starts slowly as there are no notable economic reports today and just two Fed speakers (Bowman (5:25 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:30 p.m. ET)) and they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geopolitics and any reports of ceasefire progress will help stocks bounce.

 

That Will Cause Some Upset For Markets Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s

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For something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500 Drops 1.2% After Warsh Hints of Fed Changes

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the market reacted to the “litany of changes that Warsh is proposing” that could lead to uncertainty and less communication from the central bank.

“The Fed was not hawkish, nor was Warsh hawkish,” Essaye says. “What he said was that ‘I’m exploring changing everything. And for something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on June 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Highest Number of Dissents Among FOMC Members Since 1992 – Tom Essaye

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Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer says Tom Essaye

U.S. Dips Into Oil Reserves as Iran War Enters Its Third Month

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting saw the highest number of dissents among voting FOMC members since 1992, leaving the market with limited conviction as to which direction the Fed will move policy rates in the coming months and quarters. Case in point, federal-funds futures have priced back in risks of rate hikes in 2027 (17.5% odds).

Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer that will derail the latest leg of this historic, respect-worthy stock market rally. But markets prefer to have a good idea of what lies ahead, particularly with regard to monetary policy, and the prior consensus view that the Fed is “on hold” for now with the eventual next change to policy rates being a rate cut, not a hike, is poised to be challenged by the latest run-hot economy showing up in the latest “hard data” reports.

And while a run-hot economy is widely preferred over either stagflation or sudden contraction, the uncertainty regarding rate policy will leave the risks of relatively violent bouts of market volatility increasingly elevated as we continue to navigate 2026. Tom Essaye

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I’ve Never Seen a Fed More Divided – Tom Essaye Says on Yahoo Finance

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Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor

What average investors should know about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to face his confirmation hearing on Tuesday

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi about what investors need to know about Warsh and his potential impact on the markets.

“I think that the net takeaway for a regular investor from Warsh is that he is going to he isn’t going to rock the boat. Look, there are concerns that he’s maybe not as big of a fan of QE and that maybe he’s a bit more dovish structurally than Powell was. But at the end of the day, it’s a committee. And yes, Warsh matters, but in my career at least, and guys, correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve never seen a Fed more divided. I’ve never seen a Fed committee that is more sort of torn on what they need to do.”

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are little changed as markets digest yesterday’s Fed decision while rising oil prices keep inflation concerns elevated.

Brent Crude Oil is surging after Iranian strikes hit LNG facilities in Qatar and a refinery in Saudi Arabia, raising fears of a broader energy shock.

Economically, the BOJ held rates steady (0.75%) and warned higher oil prices could boost inflation, but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 5.5), and New Home Sales (E: 728K). Markets will want stable data as higher oil prices add to inflation concerns.

Later, the Treasury will auction 4 & 8-Week Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 10-Yr TIPS (1:00 p.m. ET). Earnings today include BABA ($1.73), ACN ($2.86), LUNR ($-0.04), FDX ($4.14), and PL ($-0.13).

 

Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

Futures are moderately lower on the news that President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

The Warsh nomination is a surprise (Waller and Rieder were the favorites) and he’s not the market’s first choice, as Warsh has been hawkish on the use of QE in the past.

Staying with politics, a deal apparently has been reached to avoid a government shutdown (which is a positive).

Today focus will be on the President’s Fed announcement and, again, while Warsh isn’t a negative for markets, it wasn’t the market’s first choice and that is why we’re seeing profit taking in gold and silver this morning (gold down 3%).

Outside of the Fed, we do get PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and some notable earnings from lenders/credit card companies: SOFI ($0.12) and AXP ($3.55).  Good commentary about consumer spending will be welcomed by the markets.

 

Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on the Fed (Will They Hint at Rate Cuts Later in the Year?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Growth and Inflation Updates

Futures are modestly weaker but have rebounded from steep overnight declines, as more political/policy volatility is weighing on futures.

Government shutdown risks spiked over the weekend following another incident with ICE, while separately, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada.

Economically, the only report was German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly missed estimates.

Today focus will be on Washington via rising government shutdown risks and the tariff threats on Canada.  Any headlines that make a shutdown seem more likely or that tariff threats will actually go through will weigh on markets, while deescalation on both will help fuel a rebound.

Outside of Washington political volatility, there is one economic report today, Durable Goods (E: 3.1%) and some earnings, STLD ($1.72), BKR ($0.67), NUE ($1.82), but they shouldn’t move markets.