Posts

I’ve Never Seen a Fed More Divided – Tom Essaye Says on Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor

What average investors should know about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to face his confirmation hearing on Tuesday

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi about what investors need to know about Warsh and his potential impact on the markets.

“I think that the net takeaway for a regular investor from Warsh is that he is going to he isn’t going to rock the boat. Look, there are concerns that he’s maybe not as big of a fan of QE and that maybe he’s a bit more dovish structurally than Powell was. But at the end of the day, it’s a committee. And yes, Warsh matters, but in my career at least, and guys, correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve never seen a Fed more divided. I’ve never seen a Fed committee that is more sort of torn on what they need to do.”

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are little changed as markets digest yesterday’s Fed decision while rising oil prices keep inflation concerns elevated.

Brent Crude Oil is surging after Iranian strikes hit LNG facilities in Qatar and a refinery in Saudi Arabia, raising fears of a broader energy shock.

Economically, the BOJ held rates steady (0.75%) and warned higher oil prices could boost inflation, but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 5.5), and New Home Sales (E: 728K). Markets will want stable data as higher oil prices add to inflation concerns.

Later, the Treasury will auction 4 & 8-Week Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 10-Yr TIPS (1:00 p.m. ET). Earnings today include BABA ($1.73), ACN ($2.86), LUNR ($-0.04), FDX ($4.14), and PL ($-0.13).

 

Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

Futures are moderately lower on the news that President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

The Warsh nomination is a surprise (Waller and Rieder were the favorites) and he’s not the market’s first choice, as Warsh has been hawkish on the use of QE in the past.

Staying with politics, a deal apparently has been reached to avoid a government shutdown (which is a positive).

Today focus will be on the President’s Fed announcement and, again, while Warsh isn’t a negative for markets, it wasn’t the market’s first choice and that is why we’re seeing profit taking in gold and silver this morning (gold down 3%).

Outside of the Fed, we do get PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and some notable earnings from lenders/credit card companies: SOFI ($0.12) and AXP ($3.55).  Good commentary about consumer spending will be welcomed by the markets.

 

Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on the Fed (Will They Hint at Rate Cuts Later in the Year?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Growth and Inflation Updates

Futures are modestly weaker but have rebounded from steep overnight declines, as more political/policy volatility is weighing on futures.

Government shutdown risks spiked over the weekend following another incident with ICE, while separately, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada.

Economically, the only report was German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly missed estimates.

Today focus will be on Washington via rising government shutdown risks and the tariff threats on Canada.  Any headlines that make a shutdown seem more likely or that tariff threats will actually go through will weigh on markets, while deescalation on both will help fuel a rebound.

Outside of Washington political volatility, there is one economic report today, Durable Goods (E: 3.1%) and some earnings, STLD ($1.72), BKR ($0.67), NUE ($1.82), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Do Markets Like Warsh Over Hassett?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are trading lower with global equities this morning thanks to soft economic data out of Europe overnight with focus shifting to the November BLS jobs report today.

Economically, the EU Flash Composite PMI fell to 51.9 vs. (E) 52.8 in December from 52.8 in November while the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to a 4+ year high of 5.1%; both data points raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the November BLS Employment Situation Report (E: 40K Job-Adds, 4.5% Unemployment Rate, 3.6% Wage Growth) and Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) due to be released ahead of the bell, both of which have the potential to move markets.

Additionally, data on Business Inventories (E: 0.2%), Housing Starts (E: 1.325M), the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.9) for December will also be released and could move markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and earnings season is slowing down materially with just one quarterly report due today: LEN ($2.23) which will leave investors primarily focused on the key economic data due out early in the day.

 

Annual Discounts on Sevens Report, Alpha, Quarterly Letter and Technicals

We’ve recently been contacted by advisor subscribers who want to use the remainder of their 2025 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you would like to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report research offering), please email: info@sevensreport.com.

 

Hassett Fed Talk Adds Fuel to Dovish Market Expectations

/in , /by

Sevens Report says stocks are rising on Fed-cut hopes — but warns bond markets see real risks.

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Stocks have extended a two-week rally as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have surged from under 50% to nearly 100%. According to the Sevens Report, that shift began with dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and a run of softer labor and inflation data.

But the firm highlighted a second catalyst behind the market’s bullish rate bets: President Trump’s near-confirmation that he intends to nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair. Among the finalists, Hassett is viewed as the most dovish, leading investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance once he takes over in mid-2026.

Still, Sevens cautioned that a highly dovish chair is not an automatic positive. While stocks cheered the development, bond markets reacted in the opposite direction. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points last week, reflecting concerns that an overly soft approach could revive inflation — echoing the stop-and-go policy mistakes of the 1970s under Arthur Burns.

Sevens emphasized that Hassett has not shown any inclination to jeopardize Fed independence, but warned that even the perception of political pressure could push Treasury markets lower and yields higher. The firm noted that maintaining the Fed’s independence is “far more important for supporting equities” than whether end-2026 policy rates land at 3.625% or 2.875%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

Futures are slightly lower despite strong CSCO earnings and the government officially reopening.

CSCO posted solid results and the stock is up 6% pre-market but the recent AI skepticism remains in place and the earnings aren’t keying a broader rally.

Politically, the government shutdown officially ended, removing what was an increasing economic headwind.

There are no economic reports today (now that the government is reopened, we will await a new schedule of backlogged releases) but there are several Fed speakers:  Daly (8:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (10:30 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET) and Hammack (12:20 p.m. ET).  If their commentary further pushes back on expectations for a December rate cut, that will pressure stocks.

 

Bullish Argument

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Weaken the Bullish Argument?

Futures are slightly lower following a busy night of news, as major tech earnings were mixed while the Trump/Xi summit met widely held expectations.

On earnings, META, MSFT and GOOGL posted mixed results.  GOOGL beat earnings and the stock is up 8% pre-market while META and MSFT slightly underwhelmed.

Geopolitically, the Trump/Xi summit resulted in expected tariff reduction, soybean purchases and rare earth exports but didn’t contain any surprisingly positive breakthroughs.

Today focus will be on earnings with the last of the major tech firms reporting, including AAPL ($1.73), AMZN ($1.58) and, on the consumer spending front, MA ($4.31).

 

Fed Day

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated FOMC Preview
  • Housing Data Takeaways

Futures are trading at all-time highs ahead of the Fed decision and multiple Mag-7 earnings releases due out after the close as President Trump made optimistic remarks about his three-hour meeting with President Xi tomorrow.

Economically, Australian CPI jumped to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.0%, up 1.1% from Q2’s reading of 2.1%.

Today, there are a few “second-tiered” economic reports due to be released including International Trade in Goods (E: $-90.0B), Wholesale inventories (E: -0.2%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) but their market impact should be limited given the looming Fed decision.

It’s Fed Day with the FOMC Meeting Announcement due to hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Aside from the Fed decision, which could have a material impact on markets today despite the looming Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow, we are getting into peak earnings season with quarterly results due from major U.S. companies including VZ ($1.19), BA (-$2.46), CVS ($1.36), CAT ($4.52), META ($6.61), MSFT ($3.65), GOOGL ($2.26), and CMG ($0.28).

 

Is AI the Only Thing Supporting This Market?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Last Week’s Takeaway: AI Enthusiasm Could Soon Be the Only Thing Holding Up This Market
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Fed Surveys in Focus

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning, recovering a good portion of Friday’s losses amid easing trade war fears.

President Trump dialed back Friday’s tariff threats on China with a post on Truth Social saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” which is fueling a relief rally today.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong with exports jumping from 4.4% to 8.3% vs. (E) 6.5% in September.

There are no economic reports in the U.S. today and just one Fed speaker: Paulson (12:55 p.m. ET).

There is one noteworthy “bellwether” earnings release today: FAST ($0.30), however, with bond markets closed in observation of Columbus Day, it is likely to be a quiet day of volatility consolidation.