Posts

Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Muse a Bullish Catalyst for Tech?
  • Understanding Why a Diesel Export Ban Won’t Work

Futures are lower as rising Treasury yields continue to pressure stocks, with Nasdaq futures down over 1%.

Oil prices are higher as renewed Middle East tensions raise concerns about a broader conflict.

Economically, the German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in at 89.9 vs. (E) 89.1.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 204K) and New Home Sales (E: 615K). The Treasury will hold a 4- & 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, there are several Fed speakers today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (8:50 a.m. ET), and Paulson (10:10 a.m. ET), while notable earnings include COST ($6.48), DRI ($2.06), SNX ($4.46), and BB ($0.03).

 

Q3 Quarterly Letter: How Are You Explaining This Quarter to Clients?

The Fed is raising rates again. The 10-year Treasury has crossed 5%. Oil is sitting around $100. War, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are back in focus, while questions about AI and market valuations haven’t gone anywhere.

There is a lot to explain, and writing a thoughtful quarterly client letter from scratch can take hours.

Our Q3 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter comes out next week. We do the research and writing and deliver it to you as an editable Word document. Add your branding, change our language, insert your own views and send it through compliance.

We do the heavy lifting. You make it yours.

Learn More About Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

 

What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Breaks the Market Stalemate? (Bullish/Bearish)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can We Break the High Oil/High Yields/Lower Stocks Cycle?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Sept. Flash PMIs are the Highlight

Futures are moderately higher on lower oil and lower yields as investors are optimistic this week’s U.N. General Assembly will yield some progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

Geopolitical news over the weekend was actually negative as the Houthis continued to attack Saudi Arabia while the U.S. considered air strikes on the Houthis (which would have further escalated regional tensions).  But, the U.S. optimism is offsetting those negative headlines.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there is one economic report, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.08), but barring a major surprise it shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on geopolitical headlines and any that confirm this optimism about the UN General Assembly yielding progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire will push oil and yields lower and stocks higher.

 

Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

Futures are sharply higher as oil prices fall and Treasury yields retreat following yesterday’s Fed-driven selloff.

Oil prices are lower as Saudi Arabia expects to restore half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days and full flows within six weeks, easing concerns over global crude supplies.

Economically, Eurozone HICP eased to 3.2% y/y vs. (E) 3.3%, while Core HICP met estimates at 2.4%.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Philly Fed (E: 32.6) for additional insight into the economy following yesterday’s Fed decision. Solid economic data without renewed pressure on yields would help extend this morning’s rebound.

Finally, Housing Starts (E: 1.315M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.4%) are also due. The Treasury will auction 4- & 8-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 10-Yr TIPS at 1:00 p.m. ET. There are no Fed speakers or notable earnings reports today.

 

Sevens Report Technicals: Is This a Rebound… or Another Rally Not to Trust?

Long-term Treasury yields have surged, crude oil has jumped again, and the S&P 500 is approaching an important support area. Short-term conditions are increasingly oversold, raising the odds of a rebound… but a bounce is not the same thing as a durable rally.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals examines the evidence that would signal demand has truly returned, including breadth, leadership, momentum, and key support levels. It also looks at a growing portfolio risk: the unintended duration exposure created by rising long-term rates, which can extend well beyond bonds into rate-sensitive equities and traditionally defensive sectors.

Click here to see what the charts are telling us… and what needs to happen next.

Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Consumer Holding Up and How Hawkish Is the Fed?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes (Wed) and First Look at August Data

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Chinese economic data was soft as Industrial Production (4.5% vs. (E) 5.0%), Retail Sales (0.6% vs. (E) 1.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-6.7% vs. (E) -6.1%) all missed estimates.

Geopolitically, there was no progress on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks but, positively, any military escalation still remains unlikely.

Today focus will be on the economy as we get the first look at August data via the Empire Manufacturing Index (10.60) and the best case for markets is for a Goldilocks number of solid growth (so at or slightly above expectations) and, almost as importantly, a continued decline in the price indices (which shows inflation pressures are continuing to recede in August).  The other notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 33) but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye | Investors Will Be Looking For Goldilocks Data

/in , /by

Dow Opens Higher, but Heads for Third-Straight Weekly Decline

“There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Analyst Quoted by ABC News

/in , /by

Why did the stock market soar in the first half of 2026? Experts explain

“The Magnificent Seven was all the craze in 2024 and 2025. Now it’s sluggish,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News. “You’ve got leadership in other corners of tech, especially chipmakers.”

“Dovish expectations of a rate cut this year were a narrative in the first half of 2026. Now an interest rate hike is being priced in. There’s more risk and less fundamental support from the Fed,” Richey said.

Still, Richey acknowledged a large degree of uncertainty.

“It has been extremely challenging to time this market,” Richey added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Abcnews.com published on June 30th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Three Tests for the Rally This Week

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Tests for the Rally This Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Critical Week for Inflation, AI and the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus (and the Numbers Need to be Good)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions after escalation of the U.S./Iran conflict over the weekend.

Iran attacked another commercial ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompting some of the most intense attacks from the U.S. since the start of the conflict.

Despite the escalation, however, oil is up a modest 3% and markets still believe both sides seek a ceasefire (which is why the markets aren’t down more on the news).

This is a busy week of data and earnings, but it starts slowly as there are no notable economic reports today and just two Fed speakers (Bowman (5:25 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:30 p.m. ET)) and they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geopolitics and any reports of ceasefire progress will help stocks bounce.

 

That Will Cause Some Upset For Markets Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s

/in , /by

For something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500 Drops 1.2% After Warsh Hints of Fed Changes

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the market reacted to the “litany of changes that Warsh is proposing” that could lead to uncertainty and less communication from the central bank.

“The Fed was not hawkish, nor was Warsh hawkish,” Essaye says. “What he said was that ‘I’m exploring changing everything. And for something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on June 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Highest Number of Dissents Among FOMC Members Since 1992 – Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer says Tom Essaye

U.S. Dips Into Oil Reserves as Iran War Enters Its Third Month

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting saw the highest number of dissents among voting FOMC members since 1992, leaving the market with limited conviction as to which direction the Fed will move policy rates in the coming months and quarters. Case in point, federal-funds futures have priced back in risks of rate hikes in 2027 (17.5% odds).

Monetary policy uncertainty, by itself, isn’t a bearish game changer that will derail the latest leg of this historic, respect-worthy stock market rally. But markets prefer to have a good idea of what lies ahead, particularly with regard to monetary policy, and the prior consensus view that the Fed is “on hold” for now with the eventual next change to policy rates being a rate cut, not a hike, is poised to be challenged by the latest run-hot economy showing up in the latest “hard data” reports.

And while a run-hot economy is widely preferred over either stagflation or sudden contraction, the uncertainty regarding rate policy will leave the risks of relatively violent bouts of market volatility increasingly elevated as we continue to navigate 2026. Tom Essaye

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I’ve Never Seen a Fed More Divided – Tom Essaye Says on Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor

What average investors should know about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to face his confirmation hearing on Tuesday

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye chats with Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi about what investors need to know about Warsh and his potential impact on the markets.

“I think that the net takeaway for a regular investor from Warsh is that he is going to he isn’t going to rock the boat. Look, there are concerns that he’s maybe not as big of a fan of QE and that maybe he’s a bit more dovish structurally than Powell was. But at the end of the day, it’s a committee. And yes, Warsh matters, but in my career at least, and guys, correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve never seen a Fed more divided. I’ve never seen a Fed committee that is more sort of torn on what they need to do.”

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.