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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Bond Yields Falling?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Tech Stabilize and the “Rest” of the Market Extend the Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes Wednesday (How Hawkish is the Fed?)

Futures are modestly higher on a continued decline in oil prices and following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Oil prices are down modestly as OPEC+ again boosted production quotas, reminding markets that, away from U.S./Iran tensions, oil supplies are set to rise in the coming years.

Economically, EU data was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates while EU retail sales were in-line.

Focus today will be on economic data via the ISM Services PMI (E: 54.2) and Fed speak from Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and the more Goldilocks the data (solid growth/falling prices) and commentary (pushing back on inflation fears) the better for markets.

Tom Essaye Thinks Investors Aren’t Sure The Current Data Center Boom Will Last

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AI chip stocks show low P/E ratios amid investor doubt

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye thinks this is because investors aren’t sure the current data center boom, fueling AI growth, will last.

Tom Essaye warns of massive cancelations.

Essaye compares today’s situation to the dot-com crash in 2000, warning that if market hype doesn’t turn into real growth, suppliers like NVIDIA and Micron could take a hit.
He says inflated expectations can backfire if demand doesn’t keep up: “massive order cancelations” could follow.

Also, click here to view the full article on NewsBytes.com published on June 22nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

That Will Cause Some Upset For Markets Tom Essaye Tells Barron’s

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For something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset, Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

S&P 500 Drops 1.2% After Warsh Hints of Fed Changes

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the market reacted to the “litany of changes that Warsh is proposing” that could lead to uncertainty and less communication from the central bank.

“The Fed was not hawkish, nor was Warsh hawkish,” Essaye says. “What he said was that ‘I’m exploring changing everything. And for something that has been working really well for markets, that will cause some upset.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on June 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Money Show

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Currency Roundup: Watch the Dollar and Yen if You’re Trading FX

The US dollar rose to a multi-month high in overnight trade Monday amid negative geopolitical headlines. But ultimately the greenback paired gains and ended slightly lower as risk-on money flows returned with dip buyers at work in the equity market. The Dollar Index ended down 0.08%, notes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The yen edged up 0.09%, a modest move that proved to be one of the larger fluctuations of the day in the foreign exchange space. Japanese GDP was revised up and the yen was close to the “currency intervention threshold” of 160 – where the government stepped in to defend the yen in recent weeks – scaring shorts out of the market.

In Europe, the euro rose 0.07% as traders fully priced in a rate hike from the ECB on Thursday. The pound was flat as traders digest mixed economic data with no BOE meeting to position into this week.

Looking elsewhere, the Aussie dollar edged up incrementally amid risk-on money flows and the Canadian loonie fell slightly despite firming oil prices. The sharp reversal in WTI and Brent from early session highs tamped down optimism for the nation’s largest export while currency traders digested news that the Canadian economy fell into a “technical recession” in Q1.

Bottom line: It was a quiet day in forex to start the week. But with several central bank decisions due later in the week, volatility in the space could pick up materially.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Tom Essaye Quoted In TheEdgeSignapore

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S&P extends gain as chipmakers eye best two-day gain in Month

“The tech-led rebound in the wake of Friday’s market rout continues amid AI earnings optimism and easing geopolitical angst, as President Trump reiterates a peace deal with Iran is imminent,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of ‘The Sevens Report’ newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full article published in TheEdgeSingapore.com on June 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

U.S./Iran Conflict And AI Continue To Dominate The Market Narrative

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Nasdaq-100 Falls As Investors Rotate From AI To Old Economy

“The U.S./Iran conflict and AI continue to dominate the market narrative, but tomorrow’s jobs report is still very important for markets because the strong labor market is a critical offset for the consumer amidst high inflation,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. “A ‘too tight’ labor market would risk increasing the chances of Fed rate hikes sooner than expected.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Financial Advisor Magazine on June 4th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted In The Money Show

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SPX: The Underappreciated Force Behind Market Resilience

A key (and largely underappreciated) factor behind recent stock market resilience, with the S&P 500 Inex (^SPX) reversing from early losses to record highs late last week, was a meaningful shift in Federal Reserve sentiment, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

As the CME’s FedWatch tool shows, rate hike odds between now and the end of 2026 have reversed sharply to two-week lows – fading below 50% after being as high as 70% the week before.

That is noteworthy in the context of last week’s Goldilocks PCE data and lower-revised Q1 GDP growth. The data reduced the threats of runaway inflation and a run-hot economy.

Those were two simmering risks behind May’s Treasury yield breakout, including the 30-Year Treasury Bond yield hitting its highest level since 2007. With the 30-year now 20 bps below its mid-May peak, accelerating inflation and run-hot economy risks are being priced out. Plus, Fed policy expectations have shifted from a market headwind to a market-neutral/market-positive influence on risk assets.

In the sessions ahead, it will be important to see rate hike odds and Treasury yields continue to fade, as those fixed income dynamics are acting as a meaningful new tailwind for stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on June 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Strong Earnings Should Remain A Tailwind For The Market Says Tom Essaye

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Stocks Wobble as S&P 500, Nasdaq Pull Back From Records

“Barring any noteworthy disappointments, particularly from the tech companies reporting, a strong earnings season should remain a tailwind for market into the end of the month,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

We’re Not Seeing The Type of P/E Surge You’d Expect Says Sevens Report Analysts

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Notably, this is just what we saw with semiconductors starting three years ago, Sevens Report Analysts.

The ‘Insatiable’ Logic Behind Micron’s ‘Extreme’ Gains

“We’re not seeing the type of P/E surge you’d expect given the rallies, because earnings are rising faster than the share prices (notably, this is just what we saw with semiconductors starting three years ago),” wrote analysts at Sevens Report in a research note.

“While the gains have been extreme in the near term, the reality is they are being fueled by insatiable demand that likely won’t end unless the hyperscalers abandon the AI data center buildout (and that’s not likely to happen in the next 12-18 months),” wrote the Sevens Report analysts.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on May 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This An “Earnings vs. Everything Else” Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Sneakily Important Week for Earnings, Economic Growth and Iran
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does May Economic Activity Stay Resilient?

Futures are extending Friday’s declines and are moderately lower as there was no progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia reported limited drone attacks on energy infrastructure and while markets still expect a ceasefire, the chances of a resumption of fighting are rising.

Economically, Chinese data was soft, as Industrial Production (4.1% vs. (E) 6.0%), Fixed Asset Investment (-1.6% vs. (E) 1.7%) and Retail Sales (0.2% vs. (E) 2.0%) all badly missed estimates.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics as President Trump is meeting with his national security team and while not the majority expectation, the chances of a resumption of direct U.S. attacks on Iran are rising (and if that happens, markets will drop). Away from geopolitics, the only notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 34) which shouldn’t move markets.