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Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes on November 28th, 2022

Credit Suisse Tumbles: Stock Hits New Record Low After Banking Giant Warns Of ‘Substantial’ Losses

“In short, Credit Suisse is starting to act like a bank that’s about to go under,” analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a recent note. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Quoted Tyler Richey on November 17th, 2022

U.S. oil prices drop by nearly 5% to end at their lowest since late September

“Stagflationary economic data, rising COVID cases in China, and hawkish [Federal Reserve] chatter have all been added headwinds on the oil market today,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on November 25th, 2022

U.S. bond market holds steady in shortened post-Thanksgiving session

“Looking at the curve, the 10s-2s yield curve spread remained near a multidecade low of nearly minus-80 basis points. That deep of an inversion suggests that the Fed’s current policy and expected path of future policy are far too restrictive for the state of the economy and growth expectations, which will almost certainly end in a recession — and potentially a severe one given the scope of the current inversions across the Treasury yield curve,” said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article. 

Updated Market Outlook: What’s the Next Positive Catalyst?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook:  What’s the Next Positive Catalyst?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday

Futures are sharply lower on unrest in China as protests erupted across the country following more COVID restrictions.

Over the weekend Chinese citizens protested in numerous cities following new COVID restrictions, as the Chinese government sticks to it’s “Zero COVID” policy.

Economically the only notable number was EU M3 (money suppled) and that rose 5.8% vs. (E) 6.1%.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are two Fed speakers, Bullard (12:00 p.m. ET) and Williams (12:00 p.m. ET).  Bullard especially has produced some “tape bombs” with his commentary on rates and if he’s again hawkish (talking about 7% Fed Funds) expect that to add to the early losses.

Three Keys to a Bottom Updated

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom Updated – Some Progress
  • Economic Data Recap – Soft Landing Hopes Fade
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Focus on PMI Data (Wednesday)

Stock futures are trading lower with global markets following negative Covid headlines out of China.

China reported a spike in Covid cases this weekend including the first Covid-related death in nearly six months which prompted new restrictions and lockdowns in cities that were previously in the process of reopening. That has triggered risk-off money flows this morning with equities declining globally and the dollar rising nearly 1% in early trade.

Economically, the German PPI for October was actually favorable as it fell a steep -4.2% vs. (E) +0.9%. However, in year-over-year terms, PPI remains up more than 30% which is a major headwind for the German economy.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker: Daly (1:00 p.m. ET) which will likely leave the focus on China and any new Covid-related headlines.

In the fixed income space, the Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 5-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. And if demand is soft and rates begin to move to meaningful new highs, expect selling pressure on the equity market to pick up moderately.

Tom Essayed Interviewed on BNN Bloomberg on November 14th, 2022

We Could Be Approaching The Death Of The FAANG’s: Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to recap earnings from big tech this week. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on November 11th, 2022

Stocks Gain After Their Best Day Since 2020

“Renewed hopes for peak Fed hawkishness on the back of cooler-than-expected domestic inflation data unleashed a historic rally in equities,” writes Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

How Far Can Stocks Run (New Technical Targets)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Far Can Stocks Run? (New Technical Targets)
  • Why Did the Dollar and Treasury Yields Fall So Hard?

Futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from Thursday’s CPI report and as Chinese officials further signaled changes to their “Zero COVID” policy.

China made more than 20 changes to COVID policies overnight, all of which relaxed COVID rules and further signaled a departure from “Zero COVID.”

Economic data was mixed as German CPI met expectations at 10.4%, while UK GDP and Industrial Production were slightly better than expected.

Today the only notable number is Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.6) and specifically the Five-Year Inflation Expectations Index.  If that number falls further away from 3.0% (and drops to or below 2.7%) that will further fuel the idea that inflation pressures are receding, and stocks should extend the rally.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in ZeroHedge on November 8th, 2022

WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Large Unexpected Crude Build

“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch on November 8th, 2022

Oil prices log back-to-back losses as investors assess China demand outlook

“The lack of a concrete timeline or any real details about plans to reopen the Chinese economy and move away from the still very strict and economically crippling restrictions weighed on the energy market into the afternoon,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.