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Market Multiple Table: Explaining the Current Market Dynamic

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • October Market Multiple Table: Explaining the Current Market Dynamic

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet night of news as both Treasury yields and oil rallied overnight.

French bond yields are 10 bps higher and erasing Tuesday’s declines as student protests sweep the nation. The rise in French yields are pulling global yields (including U.S. Treasury yields) higher.

Economically, German Industrial Production beat estimates, rising 2.0% vs. (E) 0.5% and underscoring solid economic activity in the EU.

Today focus will be on the FOMC Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) and investors will be looking for insight into just how hawkish the committee was back in September (the less hawkish, the better as that will pressure yields and help support stocks).  We also get Consumer Credit (E: $15.0B) this afternoon, although that’s unlikely to move markets.

 

Your Window to Send a Q3 Client Letter Is Closing

Q4 is already underway. If you haven’t sent clients a Q3 update yet, you’re not too late. But this is the week to get it done.

Clients are hearing about renewed Fed hikes, 5% Treasury yields, $100 oil, inflation, geopolitics, and AI. They don’t need more headlines. They need your perspective on what it all means.

The good news: We already did the hard part.

The Q3 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is finished and available as a fully editable Word document. We researched the quarter, identified what mattered, and wrote the client-ready letter. You customize it, send it through compliance, and get it to clients.

The window is still open. But it won’t be for much longer.

Get the Q3 Quarterly Letter Here

 

Are Rising Rates Really Bad For Stock Returns?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Rising Rates Really Bad For Stock Returns?

Futures are higher as a sharp drop in oil prices and lower Treasury yields are supporting stocks ahead of today’s September jobs report.

Oil prices are falling as reports of potential strategic reserve releases in Europe ease supply concerns.

Economically, Eurozone HICP came in at 3.8% vs. (E) 3.7% y/y, while Core HICP met expectations at 2.5% y/y.

Today, focus will be on the September Employment Situation Report (E: 90K Job-Adds, 4.1% Unemployment Rate, 0.3% Wage Growth), with Factory Orders (E: 0.0%) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.6 million) also due. A Goldilocks jobs report should help support stocks.

Finally, Fed Governor Logan is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET, although the jobs report will remain the primary focus for markets.

 

Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (Monthly Update)
  • Why Gold Fell So Hard on Monday

Futures are little changed as markets digest more mixed headlines on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks.

Geopolitically, President Trump denied Monday’s “sanction relief for nuclear concessions” headlines, but negotiations appear on going in some form (which is positive).

Geopolitics will remain the primary market driver today and any positive headlines on a ceasefire should pressure oil and help stocks rebound.

Economically, reports today include the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 2.4%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 90.0) but they’re unlikely to move markets, barring a major surprise.

We do have a lot of Fed speakers today and of them, Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (3:00 p.m. ET) are the most important.  Other Fed speakers today include Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET), Barr (12:40 p.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) and Musalem (1:30 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if the tone from Fed speakers remains hawkish that will help support the dollar and yields.

Finally, there are two consumer-focused companies reporting today, CCL ($1.36) and KMX ($0.68) and the stronger the reports, the better.

 

How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Did the S&P 500 Rally Last Week Despite Higher Oil and Yields? (Hint: AI).
  • Weekly Market Preview: Geopolitics Still Dominate, Will Oil and Yields Sustainably Decline?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A Busy and Important Week (Jobs Report Friday the Highlight)

Futures are moderately weaker as there was no diplomatic progress over the weekend between the U.S. and Iran and oil and Treasury yields are higher in response.

President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to return to the June ceasefire agreement and re-open the Strait of Hormuz, although there is some hope that negotiations between the two sides will continue this week.

Oil was up 4% overnight while the 10 year Treasury yield rose four basis points and those factors are pressuring futures.

Focus will remain on geopolitics and, as was the case last week, any hint of diplomatic progress should help Treasury yields and oil fall and stocks recover from these early losses (while a continued rise in yields and oil will further pressure markets).

Turning to actual data/events, there are no economic reports today but there are several Fed speakers including Bowman (8:15 a.m. ET), Cook (1:25 p.m. ET) and Barkin (1:30 p.m. ET).  If they reinforce last week’s hawkish tone from Fed speakers, look for that to put incremental upward pressure on the 10 year yield.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In The MoneyShow.com

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Oil: After Modest Pullback, Watch for These Trading Cues

Commodities were a push and pull between falling oil prices and rising precious and industrial metals near the end of last week. Looking forward, oil is still stretched enough in the short term that a more positive tone in the headlines could pressure prices moderately, suggests Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Brent crude prices dropped modestly from their recent peak near $109 per barrel after Saudi Arabia announced a credible plan to restore roughly half the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline within a few days. Full pipeline operations aren’t expected to resume for six weeks. But even the promise of partially restored capacity put downward pressure on crude prices.

If we can get even a whiff of progress on a US/Iran ceasefire, that opens up more transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb — and oil can really begin to slide back toward pre-war prices. That’s especially true given recent bearish inventory data.

We just saw more supply than expected across the product spectrum. WTI crude inventories fell less than expected (-650k bbls vs. the estimate of -1.68MM bbls), while gasoline inventories rose 800k bbls compared to an expected 1.1MM barrel draw.

For the market to get real relief, though – which means Brent crude into the low-$90s or, ideally, sub-$90 – we will need to get actual progress towards not just a US/Iran ceasefire, but also broader regional calm.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on September 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted In NDTV On September 1st, 2026

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Wall Street Highlights: S&P 500 Slips As Oil Spike, Rising Fed Rate Bets Pressure Stocks

“Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speak so focus will remain on geopolitics,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of ‘The Sevens Report’ newsletter. “Markets still strongly assume there won’t be any material military escalation between Iran and the US, but if the headlines turn negative on that front, it’ll introduce a new headwind on the market.” 

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on September 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tit-For-Tat strikes In The Middle East Makes A Ceasefire More Remote

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In a Quagmire Scenario, Here’s How and What to Trade

Reverting back to potential tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East makes a ceasefire more remote. That means the global economy may have to endure an extended period of elevated oil, natural gas, and fertilizer prices that, over time, boost inflation, global bond yields, and potentially weigh on global growth, observes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

This matters to you for two specific reasons. First, higher yields are one of the biggest headwinds for stocks right now. Fears of a quagmire will boost commodity prices. That, in turn, will keep yields elevated, keep inflation elevated, and potentially pressure consumer spending and global growth.

Second, it can impact what outperforms in the markets. As we saw Friday, growth factors in the market face stiffer headwinds when yields rise sharply. Since most growth ETFs are tech-heavy, that means the S&P 500 Index could feel pressure. Advisors will again want to make sure they have balance across portfolios and not be too growth/tech/AI heavy.

Bottom line: The conflicts are again in the headlines and impacting markets. It’s critical we understand how and why, so we can look past scary/sensational headlines and focus on the legitimate risks to markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on September 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus Will Remain Primarily On Geopolitics | Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

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Dow Futures Bounce Back as Tech Stocks Struggle for Direction

“Today focus will remain primarily on geopolitics and any positive headlines about ceasefire progress should pressure oil and yields and help stocks lift,” Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report says ahead of the market open.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How to Talk to Clients About the Wars (From a Market Standpoint)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Talk to Clients About the Wars (From a Market Standpoint)

Futures are moderately weaker as higher oil prices and rising global bond yields pressure stocks.

Global bond yields extended Monday’s gains overnight as the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield hit 3.00% for the first time since 1996.

Economic data was solid as EU and UK manufacturing PMIs were in-line, while EU Core HICP (their CPI) beat estimates.

Focus today will remain on bond yields and the higher they go, the lower stocks will go.  The events that will influence yields today include 1) Any geopolitical headlines (any reports of ceasefire progress will pressure yields) and 2)  Economic data. Important reports today include the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 55.2) and JOLTS (E: 7.35 million) and the closer to in-line they are, the better for yields.  There is also one Fed speaker, Barr (9:05 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front we do get several important tech/AI earnings results after the close, including DELL ($4.72), PANW ($0.51) and MDB ($1.61).

 

Geopolitical Uncertainty Leaves Market Risks Skewed

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Oil: Trading in a “War Range” After Testing Pre-Conflict Lows

WTI crude oil futures posted a strong rally to start the week as last week’s heavy selloff was predicated on optimism that the US and Iran were poised to make progress on peace talks. After testing pre-war lows in early July, WTI has rallied back into the H1 2026 “war range” between $85 and $105 per barrel, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

The lack of any progress towards a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran, paired with the disappointment surrounding failed efforts by Oman and Iran to strike an independent agreement, further added to a squeezy rally in oil. WTI futures ended Monday higher by 5.2%.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty leaves market risks skewed in favor of the oil bulls. Global supply dynamics are getting closer to increasingly dire levels with each passing week that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at an effective standstill.

Until there is clarity on when Hormuz may reopen for free trade, WTI is set to trade between a newly formed band of technical support spanning $70-$75 and resistance from $95-$100.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com on August 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.