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Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t Treasuries or Oil Confirming The Rally in Stocks?
  • Return Table – Not All Markets Are Signaling an “All-Clear” Yet…
  • Producer Price Index Takeaways – Cooler Than Feared

Futures are slightly lower on mixed geopolitical headlines since yesterday’s close.

Overnight, Iran threatened to halt trade through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea if the U.S. Naval blockade of Hormuz continued, however the AP reported progress in ceasefire talks with a deal potential imminent.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch in the U.S. including the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -2.0), Import & Export Prices (E: 2.1% m/m, 1.7% m/m), the latest Housing Market Index release (E: 37).

Additionally, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. and two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:45 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to get underway with notable companies reporting today including ASML ($7.72), BAC ($1.00), MS ($3.06), PGR ($4.77), PNC ($4.12), and JBHT ($1.45).

 

What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Failed Peace Talks Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Dual Focus This Week on Iran but Also Key Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Futures are moderately lower as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

The ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no material progress and, in response, President Trump ordered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is boosting oil prices (up 8%) and weighing on futures.

Economically,  there were no notable reports over the weekend.

Today focus will stay on the Strait of Hormuz and specifically if the partial blockade goes into effect and, if so, whether that reignites direct conflict (if so, that would be an incremental negative).

Outside of geopolitics, this is an important week for earnings as we get major banks reporting this week (among other notable companies) and that starts today via GS ($16.34), FAST ($0.30) and FBK ($1.13) results.  In this environment, the stronger the earnings and guidance, the better for stocks.

Finally, there is one economic report today, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.07 million), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Oil Thresholds to Watch This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • All About Oil – Key Price Thresholds to Watch This Week
  • March ISM Services Index Takeaways – A Fresh Whiff of Stagflation

Stock futures reversed from modest overnight gains to trade with mild losses during the last hour as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded ahead of tonight’s deal-deadline.

Geopolitically, news that Iran has “rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S.” saw oil turn higher from overnight lows with WTI revisiting YTD highs near $115/barrel in pre-market trade.

Economically, the Final EU Composite PMI fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February, slightly above the Flash reading of 50.5 but the data is not materially impacting markets given elevated geopolitical angst.

Looking into today’s session, there are two notable domestic economic reports to watch: Durable Goods (E: -0.2%) this morning and Consumer Credit (E: $12.0B) this afternoon.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Goolsbee (12:35 p.m. ET) and Jefferson (5:50 p.m. ET) and a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET). Either speaker or any unexpected strength/weakness in the auction has the potential to move bonds which could impact equities (falling yields are the best outcome for equities today).

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (up 7%) as President Trump pushed back on near term deescalation hopes in the U.S./Iran war during his prime time address.

President Trump reiterated a limited U.S. operation (lasting another few weeks) but warned of further near term escalation and gave no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing near term ceasefire hopes and sending oil higher.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (anything that increases the chances of a U.S. ground assault will further boost oil and be incrementally negative for stocks) but we do get two important labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Challenger layoffs.  Given geo-political uncertainty, the stronger the labor market data, the better as it will push back on stagflation concerns (although the data won’t stop the selloff without positive geopolitical news).

There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

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All the market cares about is ‘no more further escalation

The VIX Falls Below 30. Latest Iran Headlines Calm the Market’s Fear Gauge for Now.

“All the market cares about is ‘no more further escalation,'” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “As things are now, we can live with. The fear is it continues to escalate, and now we’ve got attacks all over the place in the Persian Gulf. And this appears to take the teeth out of that—although it is sort of impossible to figure out what the ‘truth’ is going to be in a few hours.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on March 31st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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What to Buy If You Want to “Dip a Toe”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Buy If You Want to “Dip a Toe”
  • Flash Composite PMI Data Takeaways

Futures are higher with global shares while oil and bond yields are both sharply lower as investors react to a potential 1-month ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mixed with Current Conditions flat at 86.7 but Business Expectations fell to 86.0 vs. (E) 88.0 while U.K. CPI was in-line at 3.0% Y/Y.

Today, focus will remain primarily on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines and any further, concrete details surrounding the prospects for a deal will continue to support risk-on money flows.

Additionally, there is one second tiered economic report (delayed due to the government shutdown) due to be released with Import Prices (E: 0.6% m/m) poised to hit ahead of the bell.

There is also a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and if demand for the Notes is as weak as it was during yesterday’s 2-Year auction, yields could begin to bleed lower and act as a renewed headwind on equity markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker after the bell: Miran (4:10 p.m. ET) and a handful of late season earnings reports that are unlikely to materially impact markets given the geopolitical development of the last 24 hours. Companies reporting include: CHWY ($0.09), PAYX ($1.68), and CTAS ($1.23).

 

Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Technical Signals and Correction Territory
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Iran – Do We See De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Any Signs Higher Oil Is Impacting Growth?

Futures have reversed this morning’s losses and are sharply higher after President Trump announced a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure and cited “productive” talks with Iran.

This comes after President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened to ship traffic (he implied a Monday night deadline).

Oil prices fell sharply in response to the U.S-Iran update from the President this morning.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and we can continue to expect stocks to trade inversely to the price of oil. So, any signs of de-escalation (including social media posts or actual events) should make oil drop and stocks rebound while any signs of further escalation (again, including social media posts or actual events) will put more pressure on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

3 Market Headwinds, 3 Indicators to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Market Problems, Three Indicators to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: De-escalation or Not?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Decision the Key Event

Futures are modestly higher after several tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes the key oil route could reopen.

Rhetoric from both sides continues to downplay the chances of near-term negotiations while reports say the U.S. may form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 37). Markets will want to see stable growth data as investors monitor oil prices.

Beyond the data, the Treasury will auction 3 & 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET while earnings today include DLTR ($2.53) and BEKE ($0.07).

 

The Two Specific Reasons Stocks Dropped Last Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Two Specific Reasons Stocks Dropped Last Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: Will Oil Keep Rising? (The Sooner the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, the Better)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI in Focus on Wednesday (Markets Need a Tame Number)

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (oil is above $100/bbl) as there was no progress on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran selected the Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as supreme leader, confirming that headliners are still in charge and reducing hopes of a near term ceasefire.

Iran damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, continuing attacks on neighbor’s energy and general infrastructure (this is contributing to the rise in oil).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain squarely on Iran.  Any headlines that imply de-escalation should trigger a solid rebound from the early lows while any new attacks on energy infrastructure will boost oil prices and weigh on stocks.