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Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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We need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, Says Tom Essaye

Stocks, Bonds Fall as US-Iran Risks Whipsaw Oil: Markets Wrap

“For stocks to rebound, we need some solid earnings from the key tech names this week, and de-escalation in Iran wouldn’t hurt,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Markets will want to see strong results and more signs of robust demand, but also evidence of restraint and a focus on stability.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on July 19th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Earnings This Week
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Updates

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines despite further escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

Oil prices hit $90/bbl overnight on continued escalation between the U.S. and Iran but pulled back and are flat after both sides reiterated they are still open to negotiations.

Economically, there was more positive inflation data as German PPI fell more than expected (-0.3% vs. (E) -0.2%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but focus will remain on geopolitics and any progress (at all) on a new ceasefire agreement will be a positive for stocks.

On earnings, this week is an important one although most of the major reports come later this week.  Some results we’re watching today include: DPZ ($4.09), AMC ($-0.01), STLD ($3.66).

 

Geopolitical Headlines Still Have The Potential to Blindside Traders

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Global oil prices notch back-to-back rise, remain ‘tethered to the Hormuz narrative’

Given Monday’s big rally in oil prices and Tuesday’s whipsaw intraday retreat from the highs, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, said it’s clear that geopolitical headlines still have the “potential to blindside traders and [trading] algorithms alike.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Talk to Clients About the Latest in Iran

Futures are slightly lower following disappointing tech earnings and more strikes between the U.S. and Iran.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted “not good enough” earnings and the stock is down –4% pre-market and that’s weighing on futures.

Focus today will stay on economic data, the Fed and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports are, in order of importance:   Retail Sales (E: -0.3%), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 220K).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers including Logan (12:30 p.m. ET), Schmid (1:25 p.m. ET) and  Jefferson (7:00 p.m. ET) although given the Warsh and Williams comments yesterday, these speakers will need to be very hawkish or dovish to move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and key reports today include: UNH ($4.87), TSM ($3.87), GE ($1.86), ABT ($1.28), NFLX ($0.79), ISRG ($2.50), AA ($2.33).

 

Alpha Webinar Today at 1:30 p.m. ET: Where the AI Trade Goes Next

AI remains one of the most important investment themes in this market, but it’s no longer enough to simply be “bullish AI.” Leadership within the trade is changing, performance is becoming much more selective, and the next winners may look very different from the last winners.

In today’s Alpha Webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll explain how the AI trade is evolving, identify the groups we believe are best positioned for the next phase of the cycle, discuss the biggest risks investors should be watching, and outline what all of this means for portfolios over the coming months.

If AI is an important part of your investment process, join us this afternoon. Click here to register.

Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as efforts are underway to restore the U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There were no direct U.S. attacks on Iran overnight and U.S. officials said the two sides were still working on re-establishing a ceasefire.

Economically, German HICP (their CPI) was the only notable report and it met expectations at 2.4% y/y.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and any progress on reestablishing the U.S./Iran ceasefire will pressure oil and should help boost stocks.  From an economic standpoint, today is quiet but next week is not, as next week has the potential to impact markets in numerous ways (economic data, inflation and earnings).  More on that in Monday’s Report.

 

Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is More U.S/Iran Fighting a Real Negative for this Market?

Futures are slightly higher on reduced geopolitical fears despite another round of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight.

Early on Thursday President Trump stated Iran “called and wants to make a deal” and that’s again boosting ceasefire hopes.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which was better than expectations (1.0% vs. (E) 1.2%).

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (any signs of further de-escalation will be generally positive) but there are also notable economic reports and some Fed speak.  Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 219K) are the highlight and the lower, the better.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million) but that shouldn’t move markets.

Turning to the Fed, there are two speakers today of which Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) is the most important and if he pushes back against rate hikes, that will be a market positive. Logan (1:30 p.m. ET) also speaks but she’s unlikely to move markets.

 

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Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as earnings were solid overnight and investors remained optimistic about a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There was no incremental progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire overnight but investors ultimately expect a deal in the near term.

Earnings have been the driver of this recent rally and results overnight were solid, highlighted by WDAY (up 8%).

Econ Today: Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.2, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.5%), Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%).  Fed Speak: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET).

Focus today will be on geopolitics and any tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire will further pressure oil and boost stocks.

Away from geopolitics, the key economic report today is the five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.  Inflation expectations above 3.0% and closer to 4.0% will make the Fed more hawkish and increase rate hike chances, so the closer to 3.0% in that number, the better.

 

What Could Go Wrong for This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong for This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the ceasefire finally happen?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A big week for inflation

Futures are little changed despite no incremental progress on an official U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

On Sunday night President Trump declared Iran’s response to the ceasefire terms “totally unacceptable” and oil is rallying as a result, although markets still believe a ceasefire agreement will be reached (so stocks aren’t down much).

Economically, Chinese CPI rose more than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9% y/y) reflecting the inflationary effects of higher energy prices.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics as there’s only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05M), and it shouldn’t move markets.  Regarding the U.S. and Iran, as long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire (and it shouldn’t be a material negative for stocks).

 

Sevens Report says investors dismiss headlines unless oil risk spikes

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Tom Essaye says markets still expect a ceasefire despite conflicting signals.

The Market Is Ignoring Negative Iran Headlines. 3 Things That Could Change That.

Markets largely ignored conflicting U.S.-Iran headlines, a reaction Sevens Report Research attributes to fragmented messaging out of Iran.

Tom Essaye notes, “That explains the seemingly opposite headlines emanating from the country as one group, who the White House seems to be communicating with most directly, makes assurances and negotiates a ceasefire while another group takes a hardline approach.”

“Whether this is by fault or by design is unclear, but it is at least partially responsible for the whiplash that we have seen in the headlines coming from Iran.”

Despite the volatility in headlines, Essaye says markets remain anchored to a broader de-escalation outlook.

“The daily headlines aren’t meaningless, but until the market believes one of them breaks the trend towards a sustainable ceasefire, the market will continue to look past it.”

He warns that a material escalation—such as attacks on Gulf infrastructure, U.S. military assets, or prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—would likely trigger a sharp selloff.

“Bottom line, the market fear has always been that the conflict would expand to substantially disrupt oil flows and send the price of oil above $150 towards $200 a barrel,” Essaye writes. “However, that remains unlikely, and as long as it stays unlikely, the market will give the ceasefire process the benefit of the doubt.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 21st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Says That Markets Still Expect a Lasting Ceasefire

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US Stocks Open Lower as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, but Losses Are Limited

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said markets still expect a lasting ceasefire agreement in the relatively near term. Unless ceasefire talks in Pakistan are called off, investors will largely continue to ignore negative geopolitical headlines, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Bloomingbit.io published on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.