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A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities

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A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities : Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Unique ETF Focused on Managing Tax Liabilities
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Another Goldilocks Report

Futures are higher with tech shares leading thanks to solid earnings reports after the close yesterday as investors look past political turmoil overseas.

Politically, lawmakers in South Korea moved to impeach President Yoon for implementing martial law yesterday while the French government faces a no-confidence vote today. Neither situation is a material negative for markets but both are weighing on sentiment.

In corporate news, CRM and OKTA (a newer cloud software focused company) both posted solid earnings after the close yesterday which is bolstering the broader tech sector in premarket trade today.

Today, we will get two more important economic reports: The ADP Report (E: 165K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 55.5). Factory Orders (E: 0.4%) will also be released but is less likely to move markets than the first two data points.

The Fed’s Musalem is scheduled to speak at 8:45 a.m. ET, however the market’s main focus today will be Powell’s commentary (1:45 p.m. ET) as he could shed light on December rate cut plans or the policy rate path in 2025. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed Chair could spur volatility today.

Finally there is one notable earning release today from discount retailer DLTR ($1.07) that could offer insight into consumer spending habits.

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More Trade Volatility

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More Trade Volatility: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Trade Volatility

Futures are modestly higher as trade tensions eased following a call between Trump and the President of Mexico.

Late Wednesday Trump announced that he had a “productive” call with Mexico’s President while Canada announced measures to strengthen the border, easing trade tensions between the three countries.

Economically, the EU flash HICP (their CPI) was slightly better than expected, rising 2.7% y/y vs. (E) 2.8%.

Today should be a quiet day as there are no notable economic reports and markets close at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Contrarian Opportunity in Chinese Tech (3 ETFs)

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Contrarian Opportunity in Chinese Tech (3 ETFs): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can Singles’ Day and Stimulus Offset Concerns in Chinese Stocks?

Futures are lower this morning as global equity markets take a breather and digest the sizeable post-election gains.

Economically, German CPI held steady at 2.0% last month while the ZEW Survey disappointed. In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 93.7 vs. (E) 91.7 but the solid release is having little impact on futures in pre-market trading.

There are no further economic reports today, but the Treasury will hold 3M and 6M Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move yields (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day yesterday so how bonds trade this morning could move stocks).

Turning to the Fed, the speaker circuit is picking back up in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting with several officials scheduled to speak today including: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET), Barkin (10:15 a.m. ET), Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET), and Harker (5:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, a few notable companies reporting earnings today include: HD ($3.65), SHOP ($0.37), and OXY ($0.81). The former two could shed light on the health of the U.S. consumer and therefore have the potential to move the broader equity markets but a continued digestion, or potentially some profit taking, in the wake of the huge post-election advance before tomorrow’s CPI release is fairly likely today.

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FOMC Preview

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FOMC Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • EIA Data Takeaways – Oil Market Fundamentals Continue to Deteriorate

Futures are slightly higher this morning as markets are largely holding yesterday’s sizeable post-election gains with trader focus shifting to today’s Fed decision.

Economically, data was mostly solid overnight as Chinese exports jumped +12.7% y/y in October (+2.4% in September) while EU Retail Sales were inline with estimates, up 0.5% last month.

Today is lining up to be a critical day for markets as traders assess the big week-to-date gains. Early focus will be on economic data with two notable releases due before the open: Jobless Claims (E: 221K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 2.5%, 1.0%).

From there, markets are likely to turn sideways as traders position into the afternoon Fed events beginning with the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed up by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference 2:30 p.m. ET. Anything other than the expected 25 basis point rate cut and steady forward guidance will almost certainly move markets today.

Finally, there are no big tech or major industrial earnings today but there are a few noteworthy companies due to report quarterly results today including: GOLD ($0.33), WBD ($-0.05), HAL ($0.75), SQ ($0.87), and ABNB ($2.17). However, to be clear, the Fed is the catalyst to watch today.

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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis

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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

GDP estimates boost hopes for a soft landing

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the report “was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis by itself, but it was a step in that direction as investors will want to start seeing the decline in headline job openings slow as part of a soft landing dynamic and still-healthy labor market.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on October 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Unhealthy Price Action and Revisiting Credit Spreads

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Unhealthy Price Action and Revisiting Credit Spreads: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Update – An Unhealthy Start to a Critical Two Weeks
  • What Credit Spreads Are Saying About the Economy and Markets
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Available Jobs Fall Below Previous Cycle Peak (2019)

Equities are mixed in pre-market trade as earnings dominate early money flows.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures are outperforming and holding overnight gains thanks to solid earnings from GOOG helping to offset disappointing guidance from AMD while CAT earnings are weighing on Dow futures. S&P 500 futures are little changed.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Q3 GDP Flash firmed to +0.4% vs. (E) +0.2% largely thanks to growth in Germany which is easing concerns about the health of the EU economy and that is ultimately resulting in a favorable pullback in the recently strong dollar.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 115K), and Q3 GDP Report (E: 3.0%) both due out before the bell while Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) will be released shortly after the open.

There are no Fed speakers today as they remain in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting which will leave traders watching for more earnings. Notable companies reporting today include: LLY ($1.52), CAT ($5.33), and HUM ($3.48) before the open, and  MSFT ($3.08), META ($5.17), and ALL ($2.20) after the close.

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What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Inside Day Means for Markets
  • Takeaways From Oil’s Reaction to Israel’s Retaliatory Air Strikes

Futures are flat this morning while global markets rallied modestly overnight amid quiet news flow as traders look ahead to multiple important catalysts looming over the next week.

Economically, data was largely encouraging overnight as the Japanese Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -18.3 vs. (E) -20.5, however, neither report meaningfully impacted markets.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there are several noteworthy economic releases today beginning with a housing market report, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 5.2%), before we the first labor market report of this critical jobs week, JOLTS (E: 7.9 million), and finally Consumer Confidence (E: 99.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The 7-yr auction is notable because soft demand in past auction have roiled bond markets and sparked volatility in equities, something to watch for today.

In corporate news, this critical week of earnings begins in earnest today with consumer-focused companies including PYPL ($1.08), MCD ($3.18), and BP ($0.78) reporting before the bell while tech giants AMD ($0.92) and GOOG ($1.83) report after the close along with credit card staple V ($2.58).

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Emerging markets may indeed be approaching an opportune moment

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Emerging markets may indeed be approaching an opportune moment: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Are emerging markets finally a buy?

As per analysts at Sevens Report, emerging markets may indeed be approaching an opportune moment for investors to re-enter. Sevens Report analysts point out that emerging markets are widely “hated,” evidenced by the dismal equity flows into these regions. 

The Sevens Report outlines several investment vehicles, including ETFs that offer diversified exposure to these markets.

The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:VWO), for instance, provides broad-based, low-cost exposure, while the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund (NYSE:DEM) focuses on income-generating assets within emerging markets.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on October 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is China the Next Japan?

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Is China the Next Japan?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is China the Next Japan?

Futures and EU shares are lower as cautious retailer earnings guidance and heavy trade in China overnight are offsetting easing geopolitical tensions following reports that Israel would not strike Iranian oil/energy infrastructure (oil futures are down nearly 5%).

Economically, EU Industrial Production met expectations overnight while a German Economic Sentiment gauge topped estimates, but neither report is materially moving markets this morning.

Today, there is one important economic report to watch: The Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 0.0), and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Daly late morning (11:30 a.m. ET) and Kugler in the early afternoon (1:05 p.m. ET).

Additionally, there are two typically lesser-followed Treasury auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed fresh light on market expectations for Fed policy rates between now and Q2’25 which have swung sharply hawkish over the last two weeks. Strong auction would have dovish implications for the market and be well received by equity investors today.

Finally, earnings season is getting into full swing with several more big banks reporting quarterly results today: BAC ($0.78), C ($1.34), and GS ($6.85) while two members of the Dow Jones Transportation Average: UAL ($3.10) and JBHT ($1.43) are also due to report today.

Bottom line, equity markets have rallied solidly over the last week amid a combination of earnings optimism and soft-landing hopes. If any of the economic data, Fed chatter, or earnings results damage either of those narratives, expect some mild profit taking in equities today, otherwise the path of least resistance is still higher for stocks right now.

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Are Emerging Markets Finally A Buy?

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Are Emerging Markets Finally A Buy?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Emerging Markets Finally A Buy?
  • FOMC Minutes:  Did They Reinforce Rate Cut Expectations?

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion of Wednesday’s rally and as markets look ahead to today’s important economic data (CPI and claims).

Economically, Germany updated the last several retail sales reports and the net change was slightly better than expected, although that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on economic data as we get two potentially market moving reports:  CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.3% y/y) / Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 226K).  Goldilocks data, meaning an in-line CPI/Core CPI report and stable jobless claims, will keep soft landing hopes strong and likely boost stocks later today.

We also have several Fed speakers today including Cook (9:15 a.m. ET), Barkin (10:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET) but none of them should move markets.

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