Tom Essaye Quoted in Benzinga on September 9, 2021

This content is for members only

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on August 16, 2021

This content is for members only

Tom Essaye Quoted in Yahoo Finance on August 12, 2021

This content is for members only

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

This content is for members only

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on May 25, 2021

This content is for members only

How Does the S&P 500 Get to 4500?

This content is for members only

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on November 9, 2020

This content is for members only

FOMC Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (Wildcard to Watch)
  • What Do Rising Treasury Yields Really Mean?

S&P 500 futures are down roughly 1% this morning tracking European shares lower after German trade data showed a much larger than anticipated drop in exports during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in April.

Eurozone GDP and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slightly beat expectations however German exports declined by the most on record in April, tumbling by -24.0% on the month which is weighing heavily on EU shares today.

Looking into today’s session, there are two lesser followed economic reports due to be released: April JOLTS (E: 5.750M) and Wholesale Trade (E: 0.4%) which are not likely to move markets while there are no Fed speakers as the June FOMC Meeting Begins today.

With tomorrow’s Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference coming into focus, it is possible we see a continued wave of profit taking today, especially given the disappointing economic data out of Europe, however a sense of “Fed paralysis” should keep the losses somewhat limited.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels S&P 500 Chart

U.S. equity futures are tracking European shares higher this morning thanks to ongoing hopes that the global economy will reopen and normalize quickly amid coordinated efforts while economic data was not quite as bad as feared overnight

Economically, the EU Composite PMI was 13.6 vs. (E) 13.5 in April while March Retail Sales declined -11.2% vs. (E) -12.0%. Both figures were considerably better than some analysts had feared helping boost risk assets.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the first look at April payrolls data in the U.S. in the form of the ADP Employment Report, for which the consensus analyst estimate is for a staggering drop of 20 million in private payrolls. Later in the day, Atlanta Fed President, Bostic, will speak at 1:30 p.m. ET.

While investors are primarily concerned with the economy reopening, Q1 earnings continue to roll in with several notable releases that could move markets today: SHOP (-$0.19), CVS ($1.63), GM ($0.18), SQ ($0.13), PYPL ($0.76), LYFT (-$1.08), and WYNN (-$1.05).

Valuation Support in the S&P (Updated)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Intense Was the Selling Yesterday?
  • Valuation Support and Technical Update: S&P 500

Stock futures enjoyed a “relief rally” overnight but have since returned to the flat mark as yields continue to bleed lower amid coronavirus fears however there were no materially negative developments regarding the outbreak since yesterday’s close.

There were no market-moving economic reports overnight.

While investor focus will continue to be on the COVID-19 outbreak, there are a handful of additional catalysts on the calendar today that could move markets.

First, there are four economic reports to watch: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.5%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 132.5), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 13). Two Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during market hours: Kaplan (9:45 a.m. ET) and Clarida (3:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, the U.S. Treasury will hold a 2-Yr Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. This could be an important event to watch as the results of the auction could shed further light on the market’s expectations for rate cuts in the months ahead (which have risen significantly this week) and potentially compress the 10s-2s yield curve spread to fresh multi-month lows which could further stoke fears of a global slowdown.