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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump

Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump
  • Acknowledging There’s a Downside to Current Market Events, Too
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Growth and Earnings Hold Up?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Check on the Consumer This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets further price in an expected Trump win and Republican sweep following the assignation attempt on the former President.

Former President Trump survived an assignation attempt over the weekend and while expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak as Powell speaks at noon while we also get the first look at July economic data via the Empire Manufacturing PMI (-5.50).  If Powell is dovish and the data is solid, expect this early rally to continue.

Turning to earnings, this will be a busy week of results but it starts relatively slowly and the only two notable reports today are GS ($8.52) and BLK ($9.96).


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Was Yesterday’s CPI Another Bullish Catalyst?

Was Yesterday’s CPI Another Bullish Catalyst? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was Yesterday’s CPI Another Bullish Catalyst?
  • Can the Rotation Out of Tech and Into the “Rest” of the Market Continue?

Futures are flat following a quiet night of news as investors digested the CPI report and rotation out of tech.

Politically, Biden’s press conference performance is pushing back, for now, on moves to replace him as candidate.

Economically, there was no notable data overnight.

Today focus will stay on inflation as we get PPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.3% y/y) and the 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%) and 5-Yr. Inflation Expectations (E:  3.0%) in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.  As we saw yesterday with the CPI report, the better the inflation data, the stronger the tailwind on stocks (especially the “rest” of the market, meaning away from tech).

Earnings season also unofficially begins today with big bank earnings and results we’re watching include:  JPM ($4.19), WFC ($1.27), C ($1.40), BK ($1.43), FAST ($0.51).


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July MMT Chart and Powell Testimony Takeaways

July MMT Chart and Powell Testimony Takeaways: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Powell Testimony Takeaways – Underappreciated Growth Risks
  • July MMT Chart – All Scenario Targets Hit New Highs

Futures are higher again this morning amid firming Fed rate cut bets after Powell’s first day of semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill while inflation data was mixed overnight.

Economically, inflation data in Asia was mixed as Chinese CPI fell to 0.2% vs. (E) 0.4% y/y but Japanese PPI rose from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May to 2.9% in June.

There are no notable economic reports in the U.S. today which will leave markets primarily focused on Fed Chair Powell’s second day of Congressional testimony, this time before the House Financial Services Committee.

There are two additional Fed speakers this afternoon, Goolsbee and Bowman at 2:30 p.m. ET while Cook speaks later this evening, well after the close (7:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 3-Yr Note auction saw solid demand, however there is some uncertainty about demand for longer duration Treasuries right now, and weak results at today’s auction could send those yields higher which has the potential to trigger some profit taking in equities.


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A lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing

Lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s


The Stock Market’s Breadth Is Improving. Why It Matters.

Though a lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s, it is worth watching.

“The lack of breadth tells you something about the underlying business fundamentals in the economy,” Essaye says. “If everything were as healthy as the S&P 500 would have you believe, breadth would be better.”

He says the index’s performance may be overstating how well things are going for U.S. firms.

“It doesn’t mean the reality is bad—it’s just not as good as that single index is making you think it is,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Economy: Landing or Crashing?

The Economy: Landing or Crashing? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Economy:  Landing or Crashing?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will A September Rate Cut Become a Guarantee This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Data:  Inflation Back in Focus (CPI This Week)

Futures are little changed despite positive geo-political news over the weekend.

In France, the “far-right” National Rally party underperformed expectations and will not be the majority party, reducing the chances of radical French policy changes.

In the Middle East, chatter surrounding a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas continues to get louder and a deal could be announced soon.  That news is weighing on oil this morning.

This week will be an important one with two days of Powell testimony, the CPI report and the start of the Q2 earnings season, but today will be relatively quiet as there are no economic reports today and no Fed speakers.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

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Jobs Day

Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Why Wednesday’s Weak Economic Data Is Increasing Growth Concerns

Futures are little changed following the U.S. holiday as the last 24 didn’t provide any substantial market surprises while focus turns towards today’s jobs report.

The Labour Party won a landslide election victory in the UK, as expected, but that victory isn’t altering the outlook for growth or inflation (so it’s not impacting markets).

U.S. growth worries are creeping slightly higher following Wednesday’s surprisingly soft economic data.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 189K Job-Adds, 4.0% Unemployment Rate, 0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  Markets are still in a “bad is good” mode for data so the biggest risk to markets today is for a “Too Hot” number.  But, that said, Wednesday’s economic data was outright bad and for those paying attention, there are now a lot of signs that the U.S. economy may be losing more momentum than expected.  So, if there is a surprisingly weak jobs report (possible but unlikely) it will increase growth concerns and that’s a future risk to this rally.


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This number reinforces expectations for a September rate cut

Expectations for a September rate cut: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s


Stocks Give Back Gains. Bond Yields Spike.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the report was more of a “Goldilocks” number, meaning it was “just right.” He cited rising new orders, a leading indicator, and declines in prices that indicate easing inflation pressures.

“In the short term, this number reinforces expectations for a September rate cut (which is positive) but at the same time, and beyond the short term, it does keep alive concerns that the economy is weaker than people think and we continue to think that’s the biggest risk to the rally as we start the second half of 2024,” says Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


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Potential slowdown in demand at the pump

Potential slowdown in demand at the pump: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch


Oil gains on hopes for better demand as worries over wider Middle East conflict linger

There was evidence of that “potential slowdown in demand at the pump” in the Energy Information Administration’s report released Wednesday, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. The implied measure of U.S. consumer demand, gasoline supplied, dropped to a one-month low of 8.969 million barrels per day for the week that ended June 21, he said. That compares with 9.386 million bpd a week earlier.

“The main takeaway is that the unforeseen strength in consumer demand that powered oil futures to multi-month highs in June began to show signs of easing back below trend last week,” Richey said in Thursday’s newsletter.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 27th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.


If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


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Jobs Report Preview

Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • JOLTS Report Takeaways

Futures are slightly higher as Powell’s dovish comments continue to be digested amid more Goldilocks economic data overnight.

In Asia, Australian Retail Sales rose 0.6% vs. (E) 0.3% but China’s Services PMI dropped to 51.2 vs. (E) 53.4.

In Europe, the Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.8 while the EU PPI fell -4.2% y/y vs. (E) -4.1%, both of which are helping bonds remain stable ahead of multiple important economic releases in the U.S. today.

Looking into today’s session we will first get more labor market data with the ADP Report (E: 161K) and Jobless Claims (E: 233K) releases before the open. The market is looking for as-expected numbers and any signs of material weakness or data that is “too hot” could trigger some profit taking in thin holiday trading with stock indices sitting on record highs.

At the top of the 10:00 a.m. hour Wall Street time, the ISM Services Index (E: 53.0) and Factory Orders (E: 0.2%) reports will be released. The ISM will be the release to watch with investors again looking for stability in the headline but also a favorable move lower in the prices subindex to help confirm the disinflation trend has indeed resumed.

There is also one Fed speaker today: Williams (7:00 a.m. ET) and the FOMC Minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which is after the NYSE’s early close (1:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow.


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Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate

Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.


What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate (What Happens If Biden’s Replaced?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Economic Data Keep Growth Concerns At Bay?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, ISM PMIs Today and Wednesday.

Futures are slightly higher ahead of a busy and holiday-shortened week of data, as French election results weren’t as bad as feared while global economic data was mixed.

National Rally slightly underperformed in the first round of voting in the French election and the other major parties have agreed to form a coalition to prevent it from becoming an outright majority, reducing French political risks.

Economically, EU and UK May Manufacturing PMIs were mixed but importantly didn’t raise any growth concerns.

This is a busy and important week for economic data as the reports will either increase growth concerns or push back on them.  Today the key report is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.1) and the stronger this number, the better for markets.


Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today!

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

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