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Stocks Hit Highs as Airlines Lead But Tariff Delays Threaten Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns delayed trade policy could derail rate cut expectations

U.S. Stocks Reach New Highs as Airlines Soar, Trade Tensions Persist

TRADE POLICY CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK DESPITE STOCK GAINS

U.S. stocks reached new highs Thursday, boosted by a rally in airline shares, but analysts are sounding caution as tariff uncertainty lingers.

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, warned that fluctuating trade policies are likely to impact Fed decisions in the coming months.

“The likelihood of a clear tariff policy before August 1 is zero… which means a July rate cut is off the table.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that continued delays in trade clarity reduce the odds of a September cut and increase the risk of a longer high-rate environment.

“That raises the risk of economic slowdown.”

Despite bullish price action, underlying policy risks remain unresolved, keeping markets exposed to macro-driven pullbacks.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on AInvest.com published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

S&P 500 Hits New High, But Delayed Tariff Policy May Block Rate Cuts

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Tom Essaye warns unclear trade policy may prolong high rates and slow growth

S&P 500 Rises to Record as Treasury Sale Goes Well: Markets Wrap

TREASURY AUCTION BOOSTS STOCKS—BUT POLICY RISKS STILL LOOM

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record Thursday as a strong Treasury auction eased market concerns over demand for U.S. debt. But Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautions that persistent tariff uncertainty may soon weigh on investor optimism.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says the real risk lies in the ripple effect: delayed trade policy could weaken the odds of a September rate cut, keeping rates elevated and increasing the chance of an economic slowdown.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

As equities surge, markets may be pricing in too much optimism while ignoring trade-related policy drag that could resurface later this quarter.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Swissinfo.ch published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff increases and escalation in the tensions between the White House and Fed.

President Trump increased tariff rates on non-USMCA goods from Canada to 35% and threatened to increase the baseline tariff on all imports to 15% – 20% (from 10%).

Tensions between the White House and Fed rose on Thursday, as the Office of Management and Budget is now investigating the Federal Reserve building renovation.

Today there are no economic reports so trade headlines will be in focus, including the tariff rates on the EU and Taiwan.  Markets have been impressively resilient this week in the face of potentially dramatic tariff escalation, but if negative trade headlines continue throughout the day, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.

Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term Says Tom Essaye

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Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term: Sevens Report Founder Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

US Stocks Extend Losing Run as Geopolitics Dampens Investor Mood

“There were already a lot of unknowns for investors to contend with and we’ve added another with the Israel/Iran conflict,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. “Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term and make rallies a bit harder to manufacture, but these unknowns are not, by themselves, enough to cause a correction.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

 

Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines

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Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt

Strategist Tom Essaye explained why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines in the Sevens Report, his daily market-strategy note.

However, Iran’s military capabilities have been so degraded, Essaye wrote, that Tehran’s ability to respond to Israel’s missile strikes and to counter its overall military superiority is severely inhibited.

According to Essaye, tariff fatigue has caused complacency to set in. There are too many headlines and deadlines for the average investor to follow accurately, and markets now routinely dismiss Trump’s ultimatums as bluff and bluster, as evidenced by the recent coinage “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The next significant deadline is July 9, the end of the 90-day pause in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, and at that time markets may well reassess their current phlegmatic approach. Right now, however, Essaye believes that “markets are so [convinced about] TACO that it’s going to take a sustained tariff increase to shake the belief.”

After recently piercing the 5% level, though, 30-year Treasury bonds have rallied, implying that investors are not yet sufficiently worried about the U.S. fiscal situation to sell off Treasury bonds aggressively, Essaye wrote.

“If the 10-year yield begins to creep towards and through 5.00%, that will be a signal that the global bond markets are starting to worry about the U.S. fiscal situation and at that point, markets will care about deficits and debt, a lot! (and we should expect stocks to be sharply lower),” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.