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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

 

Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines

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Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt

Strategist Tom Essaye explained why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines in the Sevens Report, his daily market-strategy note.

However, Iran’s military capabilities have been so degraded, Essaye wrote, that Tehran’s ability to respond to Israel’s missile strikes and to counter its overall military superiority is severely inhibited.

According to Essaye, tariff fatigue has caused complacency to set in. There are too many headlines and deadlines for the average investor to follow accurately, and markets now routinely dismiss Trump’s ultimatums as bluff and bluster, as evidenced by the recent coinage “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The next significant deadline is July 9, the end of the 90-day pause in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, and at that time markets may well reassess their current phlegmatic approach. Right now, however, Essaye believes that “markets are so [convinced about] TACO that it’s going to take a sustained tariff increase to shake the belief.”

After recently piercing the 5% level, though, 30-year Treasury bonds have rallied, implying that investors are not yet sufficiently worried about the U.S. fiscal situation to sell off Treasury bonds aggressively, Essaye wrote.

“If the 10-year yield begins to creep towards and through 5.00%, that will be a signal that the global bond markets are starting to worry about the U.S. fiscal situation and at that point, markets will care about deficits and debt, a lot! (and we should expect stocks to be sharply lower),” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

June Market Multiple Table (All About TACO)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table Update – All About “TACO”

Futures are slightly higher this morning as traders remain optimistic about progress in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks ahead of the May CPI release tomorrow.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3 points to 98.8 in May, topping estimates of 95.9 which is supporting modest gains in U.S. equity futures.

There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which limits potential catalysts to today’s Treasury auctions which include 6-Week and 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a (more important) 3-Yr Note auction at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Late season earnings continue to trickle in as well with: ASO ($0.84), SJM ($2.25), UNFI ($0.24), GME ($0.08), and PLAY ($0.96) all due to report Q1 results today.

Bottom line, today is lining up to be fairly quiet as far as scheduled catalysts are concerned. However, any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where U.S. and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release.

There is a risk of profit-taking

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There is a risk of profit-taking: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomingbit.io

NYSE starts mixed as it awaits employment data

Tom Essaye of Sevens Report mentioned in a note to clients, “Today is likely to be a relatively quiet day for the market as investors digest the large May rebound, but if negative news emerges, there is a risk of profit-taking.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomingbit article, published on June 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The thesis behind the TACO trade

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The thesis behind the TACO trade: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in The Times of India

Explainer: What is ‘TACO trade’ – a new nickname mocking Trump’s tariff approach

As per a Bloomberg report, “The thesis behind the TACO trade is: Buy the Trump tariff dip,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs. As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Also, click here to view the full The Times of India article featured in MSN, published on May 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tariff/Trade-War Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs and How Important Are They for Markets?
  • Weekly Economic Preview: ISM Data and May Jobs Report in Focus

Futures are lower with global markets amid a combination of escalating trade war tensions and an unexpected intensification in the Russia-Ukraine war over the weekend.

President Trump doubled tariffs on steel to 50% which dampens hopes for an EU trade deal while rhetoric between the U.S. and China deteriorated since Friday’s close.

Ukraine surprisingly struck Russian air base targets over the weekend in what military officials said was their large drone attack so far in the multi-year conflict. The escalating geopolitical tensions has reignited a fear bid in oil with futures prices up nearly 4% this morning.

Today kicks off a busy week of economic data with the most important release coming just after the open via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.5). Construction Spending (E: 0.2%) will also be released after the open but is less likely to impact markets.

There are also multiple noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak today including, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (12:45 p.m. ET), and most importantly Powell (1:00 p.m. ET). Any fresh insight on policy plans has the potential to materially move markets (hawkish commentary would influence risk-aversion while dovish comments would support a continuation of the May rally).

‘TACO Trade’: What to know about the term Donald Trump doesn’t want to hear again

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The term “TACO trade” took off across most media platforms on Wednesday, and if you are just now catching up and wondering what that’s all about … well, it doesn’t have a thing to do with Taco Bell.

It does have everything to do with President Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariff policies. And Trump is not too happy to hear it.

“But the Trump tariff dip,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. “Essentially, Trump has proven to investors that he won’t actually follow through with draconian tariffs. As such, any sell-off following a dramatic tariff threat should be bought.”

Trump was asked about the term on Wednesday, and he claimed it was the first time he had heard of it. He also, clearly, did not appreciate it.
To read the full article from Penn Live from May 29, 2025 click here.

TACO Trump goes viral, as analyst confirms the US President does ‘chicken out’

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It didn’t take long for social media to jump on to US President Donald Trump’s latest, unedifying nickname.

Earlier this month, Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined an acronym to describe a popular trading strategy centered around Trump’s start-and-stop tariff policies – TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

So does Trump always chicken out?

According to a note to subscribers on Thursday from respected Wall Street market analyst Tom Essaye, the answer is yes.

In the note, the Sevens Report Research founder pointed to Trump’s decision to exempt goods subject to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement from additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, significantly reducing their sting. To read the full article on The New Daily from May 29, 2025 click here.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
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Trump pushes back on characterization of ‘TACO’ strategy: ‘It’s called negotiation’

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President Donald Trump pushed back on Wednesday on the characterization of his tariff policy as “chickening out” after he announced and then paused tariffs on other countries multiple times.

Trump objected to the description when asked by a reporter, saying it was part of his wider strategy.

Announcements of trade deals, tariff deadline extensions, and the lowering of tariffs all helped contribute to a market revival after an initial crash. The market has now regained most of its value, partially due to the TACO strategy.

“So, the returns are somewhat conclusive: The TACO trade has worked and buying stocks on extreme tariff-related threats has worked,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said, according to Market Watch. To read the full piece on Washington Examiner, from May 28, 2025, click here.

Get access to the full Sevens Report issue on this topic—plus two weeks of free, no-obligation market insights built for advisors. 📩 Start your trial here: click here.

Advisors at top firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Wells Fargo, and Raymond James already subscribe. Ready to see why?
👉 Start your quarterly subscription here: click here.