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A Factor of Traders Getting Ahead of Themselves, Essaye Says

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Nasdaq Stages Afternoon Rebound as October Hike Odds Drop

“The biggest thing he said was that they don’t have to be urgent, which pushes back on concerns that there was going to be an October rate hike,” says Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research.

“I think it was a factor of traders getting ahead of themselves,” Essaye says. “Hiking rates twice more—and once ahead of an election—is a pretty high bar, so they’d have to be pretty spooked by inflation to do that. That said, the inflation data is not good, and it appears to be getting worse.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on September 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

If Rates Are Higher for Longer, What Outperforms?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • If Rates Are Higher for Longer, What Outperforms? (Hint:  Secular Growth Strategies)

Futures are modestly higher on a decline in oil prices and global bond yields, following positive news for both markets.

European bond yields are lower after Marine Le Pen, the favorite to become the next French President, unveiled a more fiscally responsible budget, easing some fiscal concerns.

Oil prices are lower after Yemeni forces recaptured critical coastal cities from the Houthis, reducing the threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are several Fed speakers including Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:45 a.m. ET), Schmid (1:15 p.m. ET), and Logan (7:00 p.m. ET).  Williams is again the most important of them (he’s the Vice Chair) and if he reiterates there’s “no rush” in hiking rates that should put more downward pressure on yields, which will be positive for stocks.

 

Why Stocks Dropped on Tuesday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped on Tuesday
  • Why Are Agricultural Commodities Hitting New Highs Too?

Futures are modestly lower despite solid tech earnings, as the 10-year yield and oil continued to drift higher overnight.

There were no new strikes between the U.S. and Iran overnight but tensions remain elevated and oil and the 10-year yield are up slightly as a result.

DELL earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 8% pre-market as AI related earnings remain very strong.

Today focus will remain primarily on geopolitics and any positive headlines about ceasefire progress should pressure oil and yields and help lift stocks.

On the economic front, there are two notable reports today: ADP Employment Report (E: 48K) and Fed Beige Book (2:0 p.m. ET).  Solid (but not great) numbers from ADP and generally supportive commentary of economic growth from the Beige Book should underscore a solid economy but not raise rate hike concerns (that’d be the best case for stocks).

 

What Does “40 Trillion” Mean for Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does “40 Trillion” Mean for Stocks?

Futures are little changed following generally “fine” tech earnings overnight and as markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.

Tech earnings (MRVL, WDAY) were solid but the tech sector is seeing some profit taking following Thursday’s big NVDA driven rally.

Economically, French Core HICP (their CPI) rose 2.7% vs. (E) 2.4% y/y, further solidifying ECB rate hike expectations.

Today focus will be on Fed Chair Warsh’s commentary (10:00 a.m. ET) and markets will want to hear 1) A firm commitment to get inflation back to 2% but also 2) No hints of a sustained rate hike cycle (a one and done rate hike in September won’t hurt markets).  The key to indicator to watch through the speech is the 10 year Treasury yield, if it rises during or after the speech that will be a negative for markets.

 

Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news and after economic data was better than expected.

UK and EU flash PMIs beat estimates (EU PMI rose to 52.1 vs. (E 51.6) while the UK PMI jumped to 52.5 vs. (E) 51.5) implying stable global growth.

Treasury yields are little changed overnight and the lack of a continued rally is helping futures lift.

Today focus will stay on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.7) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.8) and Goldilocks numbers (headline readings that meet or slightly beat estimates and no big increases in the price indices) should keep yields stable and help stocks rebound.

 

Tech Decline Part Two: Staying Long With Less Risk

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Decline Part Two: Ways to Stay Long Tech But Reduce AI Infrastructure

Futures are in the red as oil prices hit six-week highs overnight (WTI topped $88/barrel) amid ongoing geopolitical angst surrounding the U.S.-Iran war, but global equities are stabilizing as the fear bid in energy is beginning to show signs of near-term exhaustion.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell -0.2% to 2.6% vs. (E) 2.7% Y/Y while Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% Y/Y, the latest evidence that global inflation pressures have potentially peaked.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak (pre-July meeting blackout period) but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on longer-term inflation expectations and potentially impact equities (the stronger the demand for the bonds, the better).

The primary focus of today’s session will remain the fluid geopolitical conflict in the Middle East (any signs of a ceasefire deal on the table will be a positive) and the Q2 earnings season which remains in full swing with GEV ($3.16), T ($0.59), PM ($2.04), TSLA ($0.53), GOOGL ($2.87), TXN ($1.91), and LUV ($0.52) all due to release quarterly results today.

 

Could Be A “Canary In The Coal Mine” For The Stock Market

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Tom Essaye said that cheap AI stock valuations could signal that investors are growing fearful that the data center boom could come to a halt.

Why Oracle’s recent credit downgrade could be a warning sign for stocks

According to Tyler Richey, a technical analyst at Sevens Report Research, it could be a “canary in the coal mine” for the stock market.

The ratings agency cut Oracle’s rating from BBB, citing heavy infrastructure spending and it’s high exposure to OpenAI as risks to its ability to meet its debt obligations. While the news went relatively unnoticed in the stock market, Sevens Report says equity investors should pay attention, as it could be an early warning of bigger issues on the horizon.

“ORCL very well may turn out to be the first of the mega-cap-tech ‘Hyperscalers’ to be rolling over into what could (and is increasingly likely to) prove to be the early stages of a longer-term, cyclical bear market for equities,” Richey wrote in a July 13 client note.

“A higher trending junk bond yield index with stocks trading near all-time highs is a troublesome combination,” Richey said.

“Bottom line, the ORCL downgrade last week served as a stark reminder that critical signals from the bond market can be subtle at first, but offer both fair warning of a potential downturn, and a rare opportunity to take action to protect principle in riskier equity and bond market holdings,” Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on July 17th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Markets Pass or Fail the Three Tests Last Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Earnings This Week
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Updates

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines despite further escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

Oil prices hit $90/bbl overnight on continued escalation between the U.S. and Iran but pulled back and are flat after both sides reiterated they are still open to negotiations.

Economically, there was more positive inflation data as German PPI fell more than expected (-0.3% vs. (E) -0.2%).

Today there are no notable economic reports but focus will remain on geopolitics and any progress (at all) on a new ceasefire agreement will be a positive for stocks.

On earnings, this week is an important one although most of the major reports come later this week.  Some results we’re watching today include: DPZ ($4.09), AMC ($-0.01), STLD ($3.66).

 

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Discusses IBM Earnings With Tom Essaye

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IBM set to have its worst day since 1961

Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi and his Opening Bid panel featuring guests: Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, and Yahoo Finance Senior Business Reporter Brooke DiPalma break down IBM’s (IBM) worse-than-expected quarterly results and what they signal for the company’s future as the stock tumbles nearly 25% in today’s session.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on July 14th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Three Tests for the Rally This Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Tests for the Rally This Week
  • Weekly Market Preview: A Critical Week for Inflation, AI and the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus (and the Numbers Need to be Good)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions after escalation of the U.S./Iran conflict over the weekend.

Iran attacked another commercial ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompting some of the most intense attacks from the U.S. since the start of the conflict.

Despite the escalation, however, oil is up a modest 3% and markets still believe both sides seek a ceasefire (which is why the markets aren’t down more on the news).

This is a busy week of data and earnings, but it starts slowly as there are no notable economic reports today and just two Fed speakers (Bowman (5:25 a.m. ET) and Waller (12:30 p.m. ET)) and they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geopolitics and any reports of ceasefire progress will help stocks bounce.