Market Multiple Table: November Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – November Update
  • Chart – Value Stocks Down Just 5% YTD vs. More than 33% for Growth Stocks

Futures are lower while bond yields and the dollar are edging higher after Republicans likely took control of the House but disappointed versus expectations in the Senate races. The result is still seen as being some form of a split Congress, however, which is historically favorable for markets.

Economically, Chinese CPI fell to 2.1% vs. (E) 2.4% Y/Y and PPI was -1.3% vs. (E) -1.6% but the data did not move markets overnight as the focus in China is on reopening plans and not inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are no market-moving economic reports which will leave the focus on the midterm election results, and if Democrats do end up keeping the House (which is possible, but unlikely) expect a mild reversal of the WTD gains.

Outside of the election news, there are two Fed officials speaking today: Barkin (11:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Any meaningful dovish commentary or a strong auction could support a near-term equity rally but moves should be limited ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

Election Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Election Preview
  • Chart: Technicals Dominate S&P 500 Price Action – Key Levels to Watch

Stock futures are slightly higher and Treasury yields are largely steady ahead of today’s midterm elections.

Economically, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 91.3 vs. (E) 91.8 while Eurozone Retail Sales met estimates at 0.4% but neither release is materially impacting markets this morning.

There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

In Monday’s Sevens Report we incorrectly said CPI was to be released on Wednesday but the report is due out on Thursday. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.

Bottom line, focus will be on the midterms today which will likely result in a mostly quiet session, however, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could cause a move in yields and ultimately impact trading in equities.

What Falls First, Treasury Yields or Earnings?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Key Market Question:  What Falls First, Treasury Yields or Earnings?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Inflation
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Thursday is the Key Report

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and despite negative COVID news from China and an APPL warning on I-Phone production.

Reports over the weekend pushed back on Chinese authorities abandoning the “Zero COVID” policy, although markets still expect some relaxing of restrictions.

APPL warned that COVID restrictions in China will impact IPhone production, although demand remains strong (so the news isn’t materially impacting the stock).

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Mester (3:40 p.m. ET), Collins (3:40 p.m. ET) and Barkin (6:00 p.m. ET).  If they even slightly push back on the idea that “Terminal” Fed Funds will be higher than expected in September, as Evans did on Friday, then stocks can extend this rebound.

Jobs Report Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are moderately higher on solid economic data and rising hope China could relax its “Zero COVID” policies.

The EU Composite PMI (47.3 vs. (E) 47.1) and UK Construction PMI (53.2 vs. (E) 50.5) both beat estimates, implying economic activity in Europe isn’t collapsing.

In China, an article in the South China Morning Post stated “big and substantive” changes looming for COVID policies.

Today focus will be on the Jobs Report and estimates are as follows:  Job Adds: 210K, UE Rate: 3.6%, Wages: 0.3% m/m, 4.7% y/y.  If markets can get an underwhelming number (say the low 100’s) that will be the first material sign the labor market is starting to deteriorate, and it could spark a rally in stocks as the Fed needs better balance in the labor market before they can “pivot.”

Away from the jobs report, we also have one Fed speaker, Collins at 10:00 a.m. ET but she shouldn’t move markets.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Not a Bearish Gamechanger)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets (Not a Bearish Gamechanger)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

Futures are lower on underwhelming earnings and further digestions of Powell’s hawkish press conference.

Earnings results have turned more negative this week and that included last night as ATUS and CF both posted disappointing results (among others).

Today’s focus will be on the Bank of England Rate Decision (E: 75 bps hike) and economic data, as we get Jobless Claims (E: 222K), Unit Labor Costs (E: 4.0%) and the ISM Services Index (E: 55.4).  Especially in light of Powell’s comments, markets will want to see data that shows resilient economic activity and falling inflation/deteriorating labor markets.

On the earnings front, the season largely wraps up at the end of the week but there are still some important reports to watch today including:  COP ($3.41), RCL ($0.23), MAR ($1.69), PYPL ($0.96) and SBUX ($0.73).

FOMC Meeting Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Chart: 3,900 Is a Key Level For the S&P 500

U.S. futures and global stocks are rallying today amid reports that China is forming a “reopening committee” as part of a new push to ease Covid restrictions (however China’s foreign ministry has denied the rumors).

The RBA raised rates by 25 bp overnight, meeting estimates while the U.K.’s Manufacturing PMI was slightly better than feared at 46.2 vs. (E) 45.8.

Today, the focus will be on economic data early with the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 50.0) and JOLTS (E: 9.875M) both due out shortly after the opening bell. But market reactions to the data are likely to be limited as the November FOMC meeting gets underway.

Earnings will remain in focus today with UBER (-$0.17), PFE ($1.47), BP ($1.94), and SYY ($0.99) reporting ahead of the bell, while AMD ($0.55) and ABNB ($1.46) will release results after the bell.

Bottom line, the combination of mostly favorable market news flow this morning, the calendar, and trader positioning into the Fed are all contributing to this morning’s pre-market gains, however, “Fed paralysis” is likely to set in today and into tomorrow’s morning session as investors await the latest Fed decision.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Zero Hedge on October 25th, 2022

WTI Holds Gains Despite API Reporting Unexpectedly Large Crude Build

The Sevens Report Research analysts said oil’s new trading range spans “between support in the upper $70s and resistance in the low $90s, as traders assess the outlook for demand amid growing recession concerns but still-tight global supply dynamics.” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on October 25th, 2022

Stocks Rise A Third Day Ahead of Tech Earnings

Since Friday’s renewed hopes for peak-hawkishness, bad news is good news for markets,” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.

A Critical Week for Stocks

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Critical Week for Stocks
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will the Fed confirm smaller rate hikes in the months ahead?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the U.S. economy quickly losing momentum?

Futures are modestly lower following disappointing inflation data and as Russia suspended grain shipments from Crimea.

EU HICP (their CPI) ran hotter than expected, rising 10.7% vs. (E) 10.2% y/y while Core HICP rose 5.0% vs. (E) 4.8%, again showing that inflation pressures are not easing.

Russia suspended grain shipments in response to rocket attacks on Crimea, sending wheat prices sharply higher which will add to inflation pressures.

Today there are no economic reports but there are some notable earnings, especially from the semi-conductor companies and some companies we’re watching include:  ON ($1.31), NXPI ($3.62), CAR ($14.80).

A Tale of Two Markets?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Two Markets?

Futures are moderately lower following another disappointing night of earnings.

AMZN became the latest mega-cap tech stock to miss earnings and the stock fell more than 10% after hours.  AAPL posted “ok” results and rose 1% overnight.

Economically, the Italian CPI was hotter than expected (11.9% vs. (E) 9.7% yoy) as inflation remains sticky in the EU.

Focus today will be on inflation data, specifically the Core PCE Price Index (0.5% m/m, 5.2% y/y).  If this number comes in under expectations, that’ll be a mild positive for markets.  Also on the inflation front, the Employment Cost Index (E: 1.2% q/q, 5.0% y/y) will be closely watched by the Fed, while the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations will be released inside of the Consumer Sentiment report (E: 59.7).  If those five-year expectations can drop further below 3%, that will be a positive for markets.

Other notable releases today include Pending Home Sales Index (E: -3.8%) and a few notable earnings results:  XOM ($3.88), CVX ($5.02), CL ($0.74).