Posts

Tom Essaye in Barron’s: Hot PPI Report Threatens Stock Rally Momentum

/in , /by

Surging producer prices raise stagflation concerns for equity markets

Stocks’ Rally Could Stall After Hot PPI Report

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Friday that July’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index poses a serious threat to the stock-market rally.

The headline PPI jumped by the most since March 2022, rising more than four times the consensus estimate. Essaye warned that the upside surprise introduces risks that had not been on investors’ radar.

Rising producer prices, he explained, could pressure corporate earnings while increasing the likelihood the Fed faces a “mandate dilemma” if inflation rises just as labor-market data weakens. That would be the “textbook definition of stagflation.”

“If stagflation emerges in the second half of 2025, equities are well over their skis,” Essaye noted, pointing to the S&P 500’s 22-times multiple on what may be overly optimistic 2026 earnings forecasts.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Fading AI Enthusiasm Could Threaten Market Rally Despite Strong Economy

/in , /by

Sevens Report warns that slowing momentum in AI stocks may weigh on equities even if growth remains resilient

10 AI Stocks Making Headlines This Week

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye cautioned that a cooling wave of enthusiasm for AI stocks could spell trouble for the broader market. The note highlighted steep drops in C3.ai and CoreWeave following soft guidance and disappointing results.

“Those moves put a question in my head… What happens to this market if AI loses momentum?” Essaye wrote. While investors remain focused on tariffs, economic data, and Fed policy, the report warned that equities could falter even in a stable macro environment if AI names fail to deliver.

Five stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom, and Palantir — have powered 56% of the S&P 500’s 10.8% year-to-date gain, according to Sevens. Essaye stressed that execution will be critical as the AI trade matures. “If AI enthusiasm begins to fade, this market will face a headwind regardless of whether the economy is stable,” the report said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Insidermonkey.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bitcoin Slides After Inflation Data; Essaye Sees Long-Term Bullish Shift

/in , /by

Sevens Report founder notes policy support and strategic reserve chatter

Bitcoin sinks following hotter-than-expected inflation print, Bessent comments on strategic reserve

Bitcoin dropped following hotter-than-expected inflation, with strategists highlighting both macro headwinds and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance. “The administration is pushing crypto. They are pushing Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the lead dog in the crypto market,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Yahoo Finance interview.

While Essaye acknowledged near-term froth, he stressed that structural changes—such as policy support and discussions of a strategic reserve—could underpin longer-term strength in the asset class.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.

 

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Bitcoin Still Speculative but Poised for Long-Term Gains

/in , /by

Institutional adoption and policy push could fuel higher prices

Is it time to view bitcoin as a stock?

John Campbell of Allspring Global Investments and Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye discussed bitcoin’s evolving role in markets, with Essaye noting that while the cryptocurrency remains somewhat speculative in the short term, institutional adoption is accelerating.

Essaye highlighted growing integration of bitcoin into traditional finance and banking, alongside policy support from the administration, as bullish long-term drivers. “Is it short-term a little frothy? Sure,” he said, “but longer term there are some fundamental changes here that I think will send it much higher.”

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: AI Market Maturing as Winners Like Palantir Pull Ahead

/in , /by

Execution separates outperformers from laggards in evolving AI trade

C3.ai stock nosedives on preliminary earnings: Where the AI trade stands

Allspring Global Investments’ John Campbell, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, and Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma discussed the divergence among AI stocks, highlighting Palantir’s strong earnings and raised guidance as a sign of successful execution in the sector.

Essaye noted that while some AI names continue to struggle, companies delivering results are commanding lofty valuations — with Palantir’s forward P/E ratio exceeding 500 — reflecting investor willingness to reward performance in the maturing AI market.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Three Key Market Drivers Right Now Says Essaye

/in , /by

Economic growth overtakes tariffs as top market influence

SPX: Today’s Three Most Important Stock Market Drivers

Stocks rallied Monday after last week’s sharp pullback, but Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report says fundamentals have slightly worsened since July.

Economic growth is now the primary driver of markets, with recession fears posing sharp downside risk regardless of Fed rate cuts. Fed policy ranks second, as investors look for confirmation of a likely September cut. Tariffs, once the dominant factor, now rank third, with rates expected to settle between 15%-20%, raising stagflation risks but adding some trade stability.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the MoneyShow on August 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye warns the AI-stock index is flashing bubble risk

/in , /by

The AI trade could be inflating a late-cycle stock market bubble, warns Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

‘This bull market in equities has a serious problem’: Strategist warns a crucial AI-stock index is sending a potential bubble signal

In an August 1 client note, Essaye wrote that “every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative”—and today, that narrative is AI. But to measure the health of the AI trade, he points to the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), not just Nvidia.

Semiconductors are the “lifeblood” of AI, yet SOX remains below its July 2024 highs while the S&P 500 has climbed nearly 14% in the same period. That lagging performance, Essaye says, is a meaningful divergence:

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later.”

He cautions that if SOX begins a material selloff, the S&P 500 likely won’t be far behind.

Adding to the risk: weaker recent payrolls, rising continuing jobless claims, and stretched valuations after an ~85% rally from the October 2022 lows.

“It is critical to keep close tabs on economic data right now,” Essaye stressed in an August 8 note, warning the broader market remains vulnerable to considerable downside if economic resilience falters.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on August 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs

/in , /by

Financial Sense Newshour preview

Are Markets Ignoring Warning Signs? Tom Essaye Talks Growth, Fed, and Tariffs (Preview)

Markets appear upbeat—but could they be overlooking brewing risks? In this preview from Financial Sense Newshour (FS Insider), Sevens Report President Tom Essaye explores the tension between bullish sentiment and fragile economic signals.

Essaye discusses how investor optimism is colliding with warning signs around economic growth, Federal Reserve positioning, and trade policy uncertainty.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on August 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.