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Investors shouldn’t automatically increase their exposure to stocks

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The U.S. stock market still has plenty of room to rise: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in TradeAlgo.com

Dow Jones and Russell 2000 Are Joining the Stock Market Party. Would It Be a Game Changer for the Bulls?

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, cautioned that investors shouldn’t automatically increase their exposure to stocks just because the Dow is near record levels.

While the Dow’s strong performance is a positive sign, he noted that it represents only 30 large-cap companies and doesn’t offer a complete picture of market health.

Essaye argued that more meaningful progress would come from record highs in the Russell 2000 or the equal-weighted S&P 500 index, both of which provide a broader view of market performance. While both have recently moved closer to their previous highs from November, they still have ground to cover before establishing new records.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Updates – Is TACO Still Valid?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on the Labor Market This Week

Futures are moderately lower on an increase in trade anxiety as the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline approaches.

President Trump threatened a 10% tariff for any countries that align with “anti-American” BRIC policies and that is reminding investors of ever-present trade tensions.

On reciprocal tariffs, Secretary Bessent said tariff rates won’t increase until August 1st but several countries would be notified of higher tariff rates this week.

Economically, UK retail sales & German IP beat estimates.

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will be on trade headlines.  Any reports of any more trade “deals” ahead of the July 9th deadline will be a positive for markets and help stocks recoup these early losses.

 

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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

The U.S. stock market still has plenty of room to rise

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The U.S. stock market still has plenty of room to rise: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in AInvest.com

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

Tom Essaye, founder of research firm Sevens Report, added that as long as conditions remain stable, the U.S. stock market still has plenty of room to rise.

He said market breadth has improved recently because investors who missed the historic rally in tech stocks are now looking for opportunities in other sectors—a classic case of “FOMO” (fear of missing out) trading.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Sevens Report President Tom Essaye noted four

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Sevens Report President Tom Essaye noted four: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

Sevens Report President Tom Essaye noted four. The first is the Trump administration itself; investors have gotten comfortable with the idea that the White House won’t pursue any policies that will damage the economy. “Trump employs a negotiating strategy that involves threatening a near absurdity and then getting people to move in his direction (so the worst case doesn’t happen, but he still exacts gains),” Essaye wrote.

Secondly, he said, there is still no evidence that stagflation is taking hold. Although tariffs may be inflationary, that will be somewhat offset, most investors believe, by lower energy and housing prices. That could mean overall inflation cools enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Third, enthusiasm around artificial intelligence is still in full swing.

And finally, stocks don’t look that expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at more than 23 times the 2025 aggregate earnings of $260 to $265 expected for its component companies, but “analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates, which are between $290-$300/share,” he wrote.

“Based on that valuation math (6,141/$295) the S&P 500 is trading at just 20.8X earnings, a reasonable number (as long as you agree with all the assumptions built into this rally).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Won’t do anything to materially hurt the economy

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Won’t do anything to materially hurt the economy: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

New S&P 500 high raises questions on longevity – Sevens Report

According to financial research firm Sevens Report, the climb was underpinned by confidence that the administration “won’t do anything to materially hurt the economy,” even as tariff threats and aggressive rhetoric persist.

“The No. 1 reason the S&P 500 has returned to the February highs is because the market has confidence that the administration won’t do anything to materially hurt the economy and that belief is the foundation upon which the Q2 rebound was built,” it said.

Another driver was the absence of stagflation concerns. “The market is not afraid of tariff-driven stagflation anymore,” the report said, pointing to cooling housing and energy prices helping to offset inflationary pressure.

“Analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates, which are between $290-$300/share. Based on that valuation math (6,141/$295), the S&P 500 is trading at just 20.8X earnings, a reasonable number,” the firm noted.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Rally Sustainable? It Depends on What You Think About Growth.
  • Chart – The Latest Chicago PMI Points to a Loss of Economic Momentum

Futures are lower, led by TSLA shares and big tech after the latest social-media rift between President Trump and Elon Musk offsets mostly upbeat economic data from overnight while the strong Q2’25 gains are digested.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.3 to 50.4 vs. (E) 49.0 in June while the EU’s final manufacturing PMI edged up from 49.4 to 49.5 vs. (E) 49.4. On the inflation front, the Eurozone HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) rose 0.1% to 2.0% as expected.

Looking into today’s session, there are three noteworthy economic reports to watch: The ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8), Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), and May JOLTS (E: 7.3 million). Investors will be looking for further evidence of resilience in growth metrics amid tame inflation pressures in order to short up rally-supporting soft landing hopes.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell will speak as part of a panel at an ECB Economic Forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. ET and any while he is unlikely to stray from the narrative that the FOMC is in “wait-and-see” mode, any insight on the future policy path could move markets today.

 

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As long as there is no escalation

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As long as there is no escalation: Tom Essaye Quoted in Inc.com

Wall Street Braces for Market Fallout After the U.S. Bombed Iran

Meanwhile, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, told Opening Bell Daily that as long as there is no escalation, he does not see the event as a “new negative” for markets.

“In some ways, this removes a potential unknown from the markets because it was unclear whether the US would strike or not,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Inc.com, published on June 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination

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This market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination: Tom Essaye Quoted in The Wall Street Journal

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled

“As long as things can stay stable, then this market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, a market analysis firm.

Market breadth has improved as investors who missed out on tech stocks’ historic rebound search for new opportunities in different industries, Essaye said. He called it the “FOMO trade,” referencing the acronym for “fear of missing out.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wall Street Journal published on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.