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What Happens If Markets Tire of Trade Headlines?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens If Markets Tire of Trade Headlines
  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations (Chart)

Futures are slightly higher on news that President Trump is considering a “tariff pause” for automobile imports which offset reports that China is halting U.S. aircraft imports.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed as Current Conditions were better than feared at -81.2 (E: -86.0), while Economic Sentiment badly missed at -14 (E: 10.0) which underscores the still broad sense of global economic uncertainty.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0) and Import & Export Prices data (E: 0.0% m/m, 0.1% m/m) due to be released before the bell.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker to watch mid-day: Barkin (11:35 a.m. ET) and earnings season continues with several important companies reporting quarterly results including BAC ($0.81), C ($1.84), JNJ ($2.57), and UAL ($0.80).

Three Important Takeaways from Last Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Important Takeaways from Last Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Trade War De-escalation Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is Growth Still Solid? (First April Readings This Week)

Futures are sharply higher on further de-escalation of the global trade war over the weekend.

The Trump Administration exempted most electronics from Chinese and reciprocal tariffs, reducing the tariff headwind on the economy and further de-escalating the trade war.

This week has several important economic reports looming but today the calendar is quiet.

So, focus will stay on trade headlines while we also get several Fed speakers including Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (1:00 p.m. ET), Harker (6:00 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:40 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up and reports we’re watching today include GS ($12.71) and MTB ($3.41).

The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Biggest Takeaway from Trump’s Tariff Reversal
  • Why Are the Dollar and Treasuries Falling? (Not Good)
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce from Thursday’s declines, despite further trade war escalation.

China increased tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, further escalating the global trade war, although markets, for now, are digesting the move.

Today focus will remain on economic data via PPI (E: 0.02% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.0).  Like Thursday, better than expected numbers won’t help stocks in the near term (they are totally dominated by trade and global macro trends right now) but it will push back on stagflation fears (which is an underlying positive).

Looking at the Fed, there are several speakers again today, including Collins (9:00 a.m. ET), Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season begins in earnest and important reports today include:  JPM ($4.62), BLK ($10.43), WFC ($1.23), and MS ($2.23).

April Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • April Market Multiple Table Update
  • Chart – March Small Business Optimism Turns Sharply Lower

Futures are recovering from overnight losses as investors await China’s reaction to the latest wave of tariffs that went into effect overnight amid otherwise quiet news flow.

Economically, there were no market-moving reports overnight, however the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did cut their policy rate by 25 bp (3.75%), meeting expectations.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors largely focused on trade war developments and tariff headlines today.

Outside of tariff news, traders will be watching a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as well as the March FOMC meeting minutes which will be release at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, there is one Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET). Any less discouraging commentary will be welcomed by markets today.

Bull vs. Bear: Which Argument Makes More Sense?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bull vs. Bear:  Which Argument Makes More Sense?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will There Be Any Tariff Relief?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus Turns to Inflation (CPI on Thursday)

Futures are sharply lower again (down close to 2%) as there was no meaningful tariff relief over the weekend while administration officials reiterated their support for the current tariff policy.

Trump, Bessent and Lutnick all downplayed the market declines and doubled down on the current tariff policy.

On tariff relief, Vietnam, Japan, the UK and others expressed a desire to negotiate tariffs lower, but nothing concrete occurred.

Today focus will remain on tariff headlines and any headlines that imply tariff relief could cause a sharp rebound, given the intensity of the recent declines.  There is one Fed speaker today, Kugler (10:30 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case (Updated Post Tariffs)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case (Updated Post Tariffs)
  • Jobs Day

Futures are sharply lower again (down more than 2%) as there were no incrementally positive trade headlines overnight.

Unsurprisingly, messaging from the White House was contradictory overnight, as President Trump said he’s open to negotiations on tariff reduction while aides said the opposite and the mixed messaging is only increasing investor angst.

Today, trade headlines will continue to dominate markets and any continued mixed/contradictory messaging from the White House will only pressure stocks further, while any evidence that tariff reduction is possible could cause a bounce.

Away from trade, today is the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  131K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.  If the jobs report is soft, it’ll only make the selloff worse as recession fears rise, while a strong jobs report will likely be dismissed as “outdated” now that we have the new tariff regime.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:25 a.m. ET and if he’s dovish there could be a mild bounce in stocks, but I’m afraid the Fed can’t really fix this problem for the markets.  There are two other Fed speakers,  Barr (12:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (12:45 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand

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That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

U.S. oil supplies rise sharply, and trade-war ‘angst’ may be to blame for a drop in demand

“If that drop in demand is being fueled by tariff worries and trade-war angst … then that marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand that would, barring supply-side surprises, spark a selloff in oil,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. That could see U.S. benchmark prices begin to sell off toward the downside target of between $57 and $58 a barrel, he said. May West Texas Intermediate crude was up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $71.41 a barrel, after losing 0.4% Tuesday.

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Tariff Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Tariffs (How Bad Will It Be?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the U.S. Economy Rolling Over?  (We Get the Big Three Economic Reports This Week)

Futures are sharply lower as articles over the weekend implied the looming tariff announcements could be both chaotic and more far-reaching than previously thought.

The WSJ, Politico, New York Times and others warned the administration’s tariff policy 1) Isn’t yet finalized (raising fears of more policy whiplash) and 2) Is more intense than articles implied last week.

Economically, Chinese economic data was good as March manufacturing and services PMIs both beat estimates.

This week is a potentially pivotal one for markets with Wednesday’s looming tariff announcements and key economic data but it starts slowly as there are no notable reports today.  As such, we can expect tariff preview articles to drive trading (and the more articles point to intense tariffs, the lower stocks will go).

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • GDP Details Point to Economic Weakness Emerging in Q4

U.S. equity futures are flat to lower this morning as traders continue to digest this week’s fluid tariff and trade war developments ahead of critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.5 vs. (E) -22.0 while the official German Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%. The downbeat German data is weighing on EU markets.

Today, focus will be on inflation data early with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric due out ahead of the bell: PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). A cooler-than-expected or in-line number will be well-received by investors.

Then after the open, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released (E: 57.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.9%) and markets will want to see a stabilizing headline and steady or lower 1-Yr inflation expectations in order for markets to stage a rebound.

Finally, there are two Fed speakers this afternoon: Barr (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET). Fed speak has been on the hawkish/cautious side this week so any encouraging commentary or a dovish tone would be welcomed, especially in the wake of “cool” inflation data.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery
  • February Durable Goods Takeaway
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S. futures are lower with most global equity markets this morning as President Trump announced fresh details about automobile tariffs and other new trade policies after the close yesterday, further raising trade war angst.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits edged down -0.3% in February, an improvement from January’s -3.3% print, but the report was not enough to offset tariff worries.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early in the day with Final Q4 GDP (E: 2.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), International Trade in Goods (E: $-135.5B), and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.9%) all due to be released.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (4:30 p.m. ET) and a few more late-season earnings reports due from SNX ($2.91) and LULU ($5.87) that could move markets (but likely will not given the focus on global trade policies right now).