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A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.

Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

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Midyear valuation scenarios show limited upside—and real downside risk if key levels break

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

  • 6,195 = near-term support

  • 6,269 = technical pivot

  • 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

  • Target: 6,600

  • Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

  • Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

  • A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

  • Target range: 4,675–4,950

  • Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

  • Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

  • Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.

July Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

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Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.