Posts

Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

/in , /by

Midyear valuation scenarios show limited upside—and real downside risk if key levels break

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

  • 6,195 = near-term support

  • 6,269 = technical pivot

  • 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

  • Target: 6,600

  • Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

  • Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

  • A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

  • Target range: 4,675–4,950

  • Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

  • Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

  • Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

/in , /by

Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.

July Market Multiple Table Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July Market Multiple Table – Is the Good News All Priced In?
  • Needed Context for Tariff & Trade Deal Announcements

U.S. futures are slightly higher while global shares were mixed overnight with Asian markets outperforming and EU equities lagging as the latest trade war news was digested.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs were viewed as not-as-bad-as-feared with deadlines being pushed back and multiple mentions of potential exemptions mentioned in discussions with the EU and Asian trading partners, leaving markets steady this morning.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down from 98.8 to 98.6 vs. (E) 98.7 in June but the report is not materially impacting markets this morning.

Today there is just one, lesser-followed economic report due out in the afternoon: Consumer Credit (E: $11.5B) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

There is a 3-Year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could potentially move yields and impact equity markets, but otherwise, trader focus will remain on the still very fluid trade war narrative.

Jobs Day

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

/in , /by

Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Wall Street Doubts the Rally — Here’s Why We Don’t

/in , /by

Sevens Report President Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on What’s Really Driving Stocks Higher

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

Despite record-breaking highs in the S&P 500, many investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of the rally. In a recent Barron’s feature, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye was quoted outlining four compelling factors supporting continued market strength—from policy stability under the Trump administration to cooling inflation pressures and robust AI-driven momentum. He also breaks down why current stock valuations, when viewed through a forward-looking lens, may not be as stretched as headlines suggest.

Here’s what Tom outlined in the article:

  1. Policy Confidence: Investors are increasingly confident the Trump administration won’t implement policies that damage the economy.

  2. No Stagflation Signs: While tariffs may be inflationary, falling energy and housing costs are helping offset price pressure.

  3. AI Momentum: Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remains a legitimate growth engine.

  4. Valuation Still Reasonable: 2026 earnings projections paint a much more attractive valuation story—just over 20× forward earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New S&P 500 High Built on Confidence Not Complacency | Sevens Report Cautions What’s Next

/in , /by

Markets rise on policy optimism, but slowing growth could still derail momentum

New S&P 500 high raises questions on longevity – Sevens Report

The S&P 500 has surged back to its February highs, but according to Sevens Report Research, that strength may be on shakier ground than it appears.

The rally is being driven in part by confidence that the Trump administration won’t materially damage the economy, despite aggressive rhetoric and growing tariff pressures.

“That belief is the foundation upon which the Q2 rebound was built,”
— Sevens Report

Another factor supporting the market: stagflation fears are fading, as falling housing and energy prices help offset inflation from tariffs. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators—like June’s flash PMIs beating expectations—have added to the positive sentiment.

The report also noted that while valuations appear stretched based on 2025 earnings, 2026 estimates suggest a more reasonable 20.8× forward P/E for the S&P 500.

“Analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates of $290–$300/share.”

Tech stocks, particularly AI-driven names, remain central to the rally, but Sevens Report warns that not all signals are bullish.

“There are growing signs that the labor market is losing momentum… and this market is making no allowances for a growth scare.”

Mixed jobless claims and the potential for weak PMI data in the week ahead could quickly shift the narrative. With a shortened holiday week ahead, the resilience of this rally may soon be tested.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious — And That’s Bullish, Says Sevens Report

/in , /by

Tom Essaye explains why wariness may be just what keeps the rally going

Investors Are Still Wary of the Stock Rally. Five Things That Could Prove Them Right.

Despite stocks pushing higher, investors haven’t gone all-in—and that’s a good thing, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research.

Citing multiple sentiment measures, Essaye noted that investor optimism is still muted compared to historical averages:

  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows just 33.2% bullish, below its long-term average of 37.5%

  • Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears spread stands at a cautious 10.2%

  • The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 60%, barely in “Greed” territory and trending lower in recent weeks

“It would be much more concerning if every reading were overwhelmingly bullish.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says this balance is actually healthy—it prevents bubbles and leaves room for the market to rise further as sentiment gradually improves.

“Investor sentiment is much more balanced and neutral than the price action would imply.”

In his view, the continued skepticism could fuel further upside, so long as macro headwinds like tariffs, geopolitics, and economic growth don’t deteriorate.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 26th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.