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Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?

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Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Yen Carry Trade Become A Headwind on Markets?

Futures are seeing a solid bounce following a mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to (hopefully) another good inflation report.

Earnings remained broadly mixed overnight (some good, some bad) but none of the results are impacting markets.

There was no notable economic data or geo-political events overnight.

Today the focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y) and if this number is better than expected (or even dead in-line with expectations) that will remind investors that rate cuts are coming soon (September) and that should help extend this early rebound in stocks and bonds.

Earnings roll on although next week is, by far, the most important week of the season.  Reports we’re watching today include:  BMY (E: $1.64), MMM (E: $1.66) and CNC  (E: $2.42).

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Corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices.

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Corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Is Kamala Harris Good For Stocks? ‘Blue’ Sectors Like Tech Lead Monday Market Rally

The stock market fallout of shifting expectations for November’s election will likely be “very short term,” Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote to clients, as more directly impactful developments like corporate earnings growth and interest rate movements are likely to more directly impact equity prices.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets

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This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets: Tom Essaye Quoted on BNN Bloomberg

Markets today: dip buyers wade back in to drive Wall Street gains

“This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth.”

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on July 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Explaining My Market View More Clearly

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Explaining My Market View More Clearly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Explaining My Market View More Clearly – Subscriber Q&A
  • Chart: Visualizing the Recent Market Rotation

Futures are flat while overseas markets were mixed overnight with European shares trading higher on tech earnings optimism but Chinese markets fell on growth concerns.

There were no market moving economic reports overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and just one economic release to watch this morning: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.99M).

Additionally, there is a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could be a catalyst for bonds and ultimately impact stocks (especially if the outcome is weak, it could weigh on risk assets).

Finally, earnings season continues to pick up with UPS ($1.98), GM ($2.64), and KO ($0.80) releasing results before the bell and TSLA ($0.59), GOOGL ($1.84), V ($2.41), and COF ($3.28) reporting after the close.

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The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tyler Richey Quoted in ABC News

Trump’s Truth Social stock soars after assassination attempt

“The stock serves as a little bit of a proxy for sentiment toward Donald Trump himself,” Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research, told ABC News.

“I think there’s a resurgence of people — your die-hard Trump fans and fair-weather supporters — who think, ‘This is a life or death situation, we’re going all in,'” Richey added.

“The financials are atrocious,” Richey said. “But the prospects, while a little doubtful, are still there.”

“If this generates a significant uptick in users, then that could be bullish. Or it becomes a blip of short-term optimism,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning

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Expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures: Tom Essaye Quoted in Los Angeles Times

Trump media shares soar on reelection bid boost

 

“While expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets,” wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Los Angeles Times article published on July 15th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)
  • How the Post CPI “Rest of the Market” Rally Is Accelerating

Futures are moderately lower thanks to significant weakness in tech stocks.

Semi-conductor chip stocks are lower this morning on a trifecta of negative news including soft ASML guidance, reports of tighter chip restrictions with China and bellicose rhetoric from Trump on Taiwan in a recent interview.

Focus will remain on economic data today and the most important report is Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) while we also get Housing Starts (1.305M).  As Tuesday showed, markets still want Goldilocks economic reports, meaning they aren’t too strong but don’t point to economic weakness, either.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), but unless one of them floats the possibility of a third rate cut in 2024, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to roll on and some notable reports today include: ASML ($3.87), JNJ ($2.82), and UAL ($3.97).

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The Important Question in a Noisy Market

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The Important Question in a Noisy Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Important Question in a Noisy Market

Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum as markets again ignore disappointing retailer earnings.

Hugo Boss became the latest retailer to post poor results and cut guidance as anecdotal warnings on consumer spending continue to grow.

The only notable economic number overnight was the German ZEW Sentiment Index and it met expectations.

Today focus will stay on economic data and earnings. The key economic report today (and of the week) is Retail Sales (E: -0.3%) and if that number is weaker than expected, look for concerns about a slowdown to grow (although that likely won’t hit stocks immediately as bad data is still good for stocks).  We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 43) and one Fed speaker, Kugler (2:45 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front the season continues to heat up and reports we’ll be watching today include:  BAC ($0.79), UNH ($6.65) and MS ($1.65).

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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump

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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump
  • Acknowledging There’s a Downside to Current Market Events, Too
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Growth and Earnings Hold Up?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Check on the Consumer This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets further price in an expected Trump win and Republican sweep following the assignation attempt on the former President.

Former President Trump survived an assignation attempt over the weekend and while expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak as Powell speaks at noon while we also get the first look at July economic data via the Empire Manufacturing PMI (-5.50).  If Powell is dovish and the data is solid, expect this early rally to continue.

Turning to earnings, this will be a busy week of results but it starts relatively slowly and the only two notable reports today are GS ($8.52) and BLK ($9.96).

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Consumer demand remains rather strong

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Consumer demand remains rather strong: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices log first gain in 4 sessions with crude supply down a second straight week

Consumer demand remains rather strong “despite higher prices at the pump this year and simmering concerns about the health of the economy,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

‘An added tailwind for oil is the largely dovish tone from [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell this week helping to shore up expectations of a soft economic landing and fading concerns about a demand-crippling hard landing in 2024.’ — Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research

“An added tailwind for oil is the largely dovish tone from [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell this week helping to shore up expectations of a soft economic landing and fading concerns about a demand-crippling hard landing in 2024,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on July 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.