What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)
- S&P Services PMI Takeaways – Slightly Hawkish
Futures are little changed this morning as global investors digest the solid rebound in stocks over the last two sessions amid largely as-expected economic data overnight.
Economically, Eurozone CPI met estimates with a 0.2% rise to 2.4% Y/Y in December while the EU Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.3%, also inline with expectations.
Today, market focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-77.6B), ISM Services PMI (E: 53.2), and JOLTS (E: 7.65 million) all due to be released this morning. The ISM report will be critical as a “hot” print is a risk to the early 2025 rally as it will support the case for a Fed “pause” in their rate cutting cycle and put upward pressure on yields.
There is also one Fed speaker who could shed light on FOMC policy plans (although that is not very likely): Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).
Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and the results will be important to watch as yesterday’s weak 3-Yr Note auction contributed to the afternoon rise in yields that weighed on stocks. So, the best-case scenario outcome for stocks is a solid auction that turns yields lower, ideally with the 10-Yr yield falling back below 4.60%.
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