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This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks

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This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

S&P 500 could hit low 4,000s if ‘things get worse’: The Sevens Report

According to the latest Sevens Report Research note, the S&P 500 may face a significant drop into the low 4,000s in a worst-case scenario, if economic conditions deteriorate and key market assumptions falter.

The firm said in its latest note that recent market activity has shown that the S&P 500 is trading at a valuation that does not reflect current economic realities.

“This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks on growth, Fed rate cuts, inflation, and earnings,” the analysts explained, highlighting the risks the index faces.

Economic data, especially in the labor market, has shown a deterioration in recent months, which has led to rising concerns about a potential hard landing.

While the data still suggests a soft landing is more likely, the slowing economy does not justify the S&P 500’s current 21X multiple, according to Sevens.

“The economy is notably losing momentum, and that’s simply not an environment that warrants a 20X multiple,” Sevens stated.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on September 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again)

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Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why This Market Is So Resilient (Again)
  • Weekly Economic Preview – Labor Market Data in Focus

Futures are lower in sympathy with most global equity markets this morning as investors digest fresh economic data at the start of a historically volatile calendar month.

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was better than feared at 45.8 vs. (E) 45.6, but the sub-50 reading reminded investors the global factory sector remains deep in contraction and growth risks remain elevated.

Looking into today’s session, there are no Fed speakers on the calendar but there is one potentially market-moving economic report to start the week: the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.8). Investors will want to see evidence of stabilization in the factory sector and easing price pressures in the details of the report, otherwise growth concerns could result in renewed volatility.

There are no other major potential catalysts today, however, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and the yields awarded could shed new light on Fed policy plans in the months ahead, and in turn, impact equity markets (higher yields would weigh on stocks and other risk assets).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Powell and Uedas’ Friday Comments Mean for Markets

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What Powell and Uedas’ Friday Comments Mean for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Powell and Uedas’ Friday Comments Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Big Week for Tech Earnings (Including NVDA on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A Most Quiet Week But Thursday/Friday Are Important

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend, thanks to momentum from Friday’s rally as investors digest Powell’s promise of coming rate cuts.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was the German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly beat estimates (86.8 vs. (E) 86.5).

Geopolitically, a cease fire was not reached this weekend between Israel and Hamas although investors remain optimistic that a deal is close.

Today the only notable economic report is July Durable Goods (E: 4.0%) and markets will want to see stability in the data (so close to expectations) to ensure the recent plateau in business spending isn’t becoming a decline.  If Durable Goods is in-line, expect a continuation of the early rally.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Semiconductors: Bull vs. Bear Case (Important for the Market)

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Semiconductors: Bull vs. Bear Case: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Semiconductors (SOX): Bull vs. Bear Case

Futures are modestly higher and are extending Thursday’s gains following a mostly quiet night of news.

Most of the early rally this morning is due to momentum from Thursday’s surge in stocks, but Taiwan Semiconductor (TMSC) also gave a positive July revenue update which is boosting tech/AI sentiment and supporting markets.

Geo-politically, a retaliatory attack from Hezbollah and/or Iran on Israel remains imminent and we shouldn’t be shocked if geo-political risks rise over the weekend.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers so trading should be driven by technical factors and the yen, and as long as the yen doesn’t rally, stocks should be able to hold Thursday’s gains.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A geopolitical fear bid in the oil market

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A geopolitical fear bid in the oil market: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices lifted as data shows drop in U.S. crude inventories

Oil has “benefited from some of the risk-on money flows in other asset classes, most notably stocks, as well as still-elevated tensions between Israel and regional enemies Hamas and Hezbollah, keeping a geopolitical fear bid in the market,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on August 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors

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The market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors: Sevens Report Quoted in Investing.com

These are key indicators to watch for signs the pullback is ending

According to Sevens Report, the market collapse was driven by both fundamental and technical factors.

Fundamentally, economic data has finally forced investors to acknowledge the economy’s loss of momentum.

“Namely, that the economy is losing momentum and an economic hard landing, while not yet likely, is possible.”

“This market needs some solid economic data and the sooner, the better, because that will push back on premature recession concerns and remind investors that while growth is slowing, it’s not collapsing,” Sevens Report said in the note.

Also, click here to view the full article published on August 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth

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Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

U.S. Stock Futures Plunging in Perfect Storm for Market Selloff

“Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth following Friday’s soft jobs report,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report research. “Global growth concerns are the main reason behind the stock weakness but technical factors are majorly at play.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The main reason the geopolitical tensions have not had a more pronounced impact on the global energy markets

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The main reason the geopolitical tensions have not had a more impact on global energy markets: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices see 4th straight weekly decline on worries over demand

The main reason the geopolitical tensions have not had a more pronounced impact on the global energy markets since tensions in the Middle East first picked up last fall is that there has not been a meaningful impact on global supply, said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research.

“And demand risks related to a looming recession are much more significant than the threat to supply that the current geopolitical landscape presents which leaves the fundamental scales tipped in favor of the bears right now,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on August 2nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)
  • How the Post CPI “Rest of the Market” Rally Is Accelerating

Futures are moderately lower thanks to significant weakness in tech stocks.

Semi-conductor chip stocks are lower this morning on a trifecta of negative news including soft ASML guidance, reports of tighter chip restrictions with China and bellicose rhetoric from Trump on Taiwan in a recent interview.

Focus will remain on economic data today and the most important report is Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) while we also get Housing Starts (1.305M).  As Tuesday showed, markets still want Goldilocks economic reports, meaning they aren’t too strong but don’t point to economic weakness, either.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), but unless one of them floats the possibility of a third rate cut in 2024, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to roll on and some notable reports today include: ASML ($3.87), JNJ ($2.82), and UAL ($3.97).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Important Question in a Noisy Market

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The Important Question in a Noisy Market: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Important Question in a Noisy Market

Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum as markets again ignore disappointing retailer earnings.

Hugo Boss became the latest retailer to post poor results and cut guidance as anecdotal warnings on consumer spending continue to grow.

The only notable economic number overnight was the German ZEW Sentiment Index and it met expectations.

Today focus will stay on economic data and earnings. The key economic report today (and of the week) is Retail Sales (E: -0.3%) and if that number is weaker than expected, look for concerns about a slowdown to grow (although that likely won’t hit stocks immediately as bad data is still good for stocks).  We also get the Housing Market Index (E: 43) and one Fed speaker, Kugler (2:45 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front the season continues to heat up and reports we’ll be watching today include:  BAC ($0.79), UNH ($6.65) and MS ($1.65).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.