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Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

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Midyear valuation scenarios show limited upside—and real downside risk if key levels break

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

  • 6,195 = near-term support

  • 6,269 = technical pivot

  • 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

  • Target: 6,600

  • Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

  • Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

  • A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

  • Target range: 4,675–4,950

  • Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

  • Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

  • Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article featured on Yahoo Finance published on July 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Stock Futures Dip as Tariff Pressures Build — Sevens Report Warns of Long-Term Risks

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Tom Essaye on why markets may be ignoring the true cost of rising global tariffs

Stock futures point to declines as investors face tariffs ‘much higher than anything in decades’

After a strong finish last week, U.S. stock futures pointed to modest declines Monday morning as investors began to confront the growing scale of global tariffs.

According to Sevens Report Research, markets may be underestimating the long-term impact of the tariff wave—one unlike anything seen in decades.

“Tariffs are already coming in higher than markets expected and much higher than anything in decades.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Founder Tom Essaye pointed to new trade deals and policy changes across major economies:

  • Vietnam just signed a deal with 20% baseline tariffs and 40% tariffs on rerouted goods

  • China: 30% tariffs

  • UK: 10% tariffs

  • “A soon-to-be host” of other countries are following suit

Despite this, the S&P 500 closed at a record high last week, with momentum continuing to push stocks upward. But Essaye cautioned that these risks are compounding beneath the surface:

“While the path of least resistance is higher… there are real risks building in the distance.”

He also noted that while the recently passed tax and spending bill may provide near-term stimulus, it will increase the national deficit in coming years—adding another layer of risk for investors to consider.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on July 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Dow and Russell 2000 Are Rallying But Don’t Call It a Breakout Just Yet

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Tom Essaye on why broader confirmation is still needed for this to be a real bull-market shift

Dow Jones and Russell 2000 Are Joining the Stock Market Party. Would It Be a Game Changer for the Bulls?

The recent surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 has caught investor attention, raising hopes that a broader bull market is finally taking shape.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, this may not yet be the breakout moment investors are hoping for.

“Investors shouldn’t automatically increase their exposure just because the Dow is near record levels.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that while the Dow’s rally is a positive development, it reflects only a narrow segment of the market—just 30 large-cap companies—and doesn’t fully reflect market breadth.

“More meaningful progress would come from record highs in the Russell 2000 or equal-weighted S&P 500,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

While both the Russell 2000 and equal-weighted S&P 500 have made notable moves recently, they still remain below prior record levels, suggesting that the broader market has more work to do before confirming a sustained breakout.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

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Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Wall Street Doubts the Rally — Here’s Why We Don’t

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Sevens Report President Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on What’s Really Driving Stocks Higher

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

Despite record-breaking highs in the S&P 500, many investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of the rally. In a recent Barron’s feature, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye was quoted outlining four compelling factors supporting continued market strength—from policy stability under the Trump administration to cooling inflation pressures and robust AI-driven momentum. He also breaks down why current stock valuations, when viewed through a forward-looking lens, may not be as stretched as headlines suggest.

Here’s what Tom outlined in the article:

  1. Policy Confidence: Investors are increasingly confident the Trump administration won’t implement policies that damage the economy.

  2. No Stagflation Signs: While tariffs may be inflationary, falling energy and housing costs are helping offset price pressure.

  3. AI Momentum: Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remains a legitimate growth engine.

  4. Valuation Still Reasonable: 2026 earnings projections paint a much more attractive valuation story—just over 20× forward earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tech Leads the Rally, But Breadth Signals Are Flashing | Sevens Report Weighs In

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Tom Essaye says the rally looks healthy—but it’s not without warning signs

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

RECORD HIGHS GET SUPPORT FROM NYSE BREADTH, BUT 200-DAY INDICATORS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY

Wall Street’s rally to new highs continues to be led by tech stocks, but according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the strength may be broader than it looks—though not without its risks.

“The recent advance is broad-based… historically healthy and likely sustainable.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye pointed to new highs in the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) line, a key signal that the rally has expanded beyond just megacap names.

But there’s a catch: only about 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to Sevens Report data—well below May’s 55% high.

“The divergence… is a source of concern,” Essaye wrote. “Some areas show real strength, while others may just be staging bear-market rallies.”

For bulls, Essaye says confirmation would come from more S&P names clearing their 200-DMAs—surpassing the May threshold of 55% would help validate the rally’s staying power.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious — And That’s Bullish, Says Sevens Report

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Tom Essaye explains why wariness may be just what keeps the rally going

Investors Are Still Wary of the Stock Rally. Five Things That Could Prove Them Right.

Despite stocks pushing higher, investors haven’t gone all-in—and that’s a good thing, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research.

Citing multiple sentiment measures, Essaye noted that investor optimism is still muted compared to historical averages:

  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows just 33.2% bullish, below its long-term average of 37.5%

  • Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears spread stands at a cautious 10.2%

  • The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 60%, barely in “Greed” territory and trending lower in recent weeks

“It would be much more concerning if every reading were overwhelmingly bullish.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says this balance is actually healthy—it prevents bubbles and leaves room for the market to rise further as sentiment gradually improves.

“Investor sentiment is much more balanced and neutral than the price action would imply.”

In his view, the continued skepticism could fuel further upside, so long as macro headwinds like tariffs, geopolitics, and economic growth don’t deteriorate.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 26th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Technical Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Signs of Weakness in Consumer Spending

Futures are higher as investors continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and digest largely as expected European inflation data ahead of the Fed.

Economically, Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% from 2.2%, as expected, while UK CPI edged down to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.5% which is supporting a bid in the global bond market with yields falling moderately in premarket trade.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 244K) which come a day early, and Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.360M, 1.430M). Another sharp rise in jobless claims could bolster concerns about the health of the labor market but a big reaction from markets is unlikely given the looming Fed decision.

Speaking of which, the primary focus of today’s session will be the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) as investors look for clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

There are two late season earnings releases to watch as well: ACB ($0.11) and KFY  ($1.25) but with the Fed in focus, neither should materially move markets today.

Why Are Markets Ignoring Scary Headlines?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Markets Ignoring Scary Headlines?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Signal Rate Cuts Ahead?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Is Consumer Spending Losing Momentum?

Futures are modestly higher as geopolitical risks didn’t rise substantially over the weekend while Chinese economic data was stronger than expected.

Geopolitically, the Israel/Iran conflict escalated as the two countries exchanged attacks over the weekend, but there are no signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict and that’s keeping geopolitical concerns anchored.

Economically, Chinese retail sales rose 6.4% y/y vs. (E) 4.9%, pushing back on concerns of a dramatic slowdown.

Today focus will remain on geo-political headlines but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets.  Outside of geopolitics, the notable report today is the June Empire Manufacturing Survey (-7.3) and markets will want to see stable data and declining prices (further pushing back on stagflation fears).