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Data from the EIA was largely bullish

Data from the EIA was largely bullish: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch


Oil futures edge lower early Thursday

“Yesterday’s weekly inventory data from the EIA was largely bullish but the futures market had become overbought and there was a knee-jerk selloff in the immediate wake of the release as short-term traders booked profits on the latest breakout to new 2024 highs,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.


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How oil futures close out the week today will largely depend on how investors digest today’s jobs data

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch


Jobs report could decide how oil closes out the week

“How oil futures close out the week today will largely depend on how investors digest today’s jobs data. If it is more ‘market-friendly’ data that points to slowing inflation (specifically wages) and more loosening in the jobs market, oil is likely to rally past the $80/barrel mark,” analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

“Conversely, a ‘hot’ report would likely send futures back towards support in the mid-$70s,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.


If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Tom Essaye’s breakdown of how markets could react to the February jobs data.

How markets could react to the February jobs data: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch


How markets might react to Friday’s jobs report: three scenarios.

Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, has provided a breakdown of how markets could react to the February jobs data.

“Just Right” (Expectation for a June Rate Cut Stay Near 90%) 50k-250k Job adds, UE Rate ≥ 3.7%, Wages: ≤ 4.3%. A number in this range would solidify expectations for June rate cuts and the best-case scenario for markets is a slightly underwhelming number, as that will 1) Keep a June rate cut full expected and 2) Not imply the labor market is suddenly losing momentum.

“Too Hot” (A June Rate Cut Probability Drops Below 50%) > 250k Jobs Adds, UE Rate ≤ 3.6%, Wages > 4.4% yoy. 

“Too Cold” (Hard Landing Concerns Grow) <50k Job adds. In the immediate reaction, a very soft number will pressure Treasury yields further and could result in a knee-jerk rally in stocks (i.e. bad data is good for stocks because it makes the Fed more likely to cut). 

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.


If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

How might a second Trump term impact stocks?

How might a second Trump term impact stocks? Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar


A second Trump term may benefit these stock-market sectors most

Therefore, it’s worth asking: How might a second Trump term impact stocks? Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, recently shared his expectations for which corners of the stock market might outperform, and which might struggle, if Trump triumphs in an expected election rematch with President Joe Biden.

“Obviously, those policies would be negative for Chinese shares and emerging markets more broadly, as they would increase trade tensions,” Essaye said.

As a result, investors can expect Chinese stocks, and emerging-markets more broadly, to struggle, like they did during Trump’s first term and like they have, relative to the U.S., for much of the past 15 years.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on February 27th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Reminiscent Of The 2018 ‘Volmageddon’ Event

Reminiscent Of The 2018 ‘Volmageddon’ Event: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar


‘Volmageddon 2’ may be coming to a stock market near you, says this analyst

An important reason why the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% on Tuesday, according to Essaye, was an an overcrowded short side of the options market, which exacerbated the selling.

The action, says Essaye, “was reminiscent of the 2018 ‘Volmageddon’ event that ultimately resulted in several ‘short-volatility’ ETF’s being forced to liquidate as volatility exploded higher amid a more than 10% drop in the S&P 500 in just two weeks.”

“Fast forward to late 2023 and early 2024 and we are once again seeing similar, volatile price action into certain derivatives expirations, namely the monthly VIX futures expirations,” says Essaye. The chart below shows the sharp gap-down sell-offs for the S&P 500 into each of the last three VIX expirations.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on February 16th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Is The VIX Suggesting?

What Is The VIX Suggesting?: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar


What this key stock-market gauge is telling investors amid a rough start to 2024

Meanwhile, a break above the December high for the VIX “would suggest more volatility looming ahead. Conversely, a reversal back towards the current 2024 low of 13.10 would suggest volatility is easing and stocks would be in an improving position to stabilize in the weeks ahead and potentially resume the late-2023 rally,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on January 6th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Gasoline And Distillate Fuel Supplied Fell Off A Cliff

Gasoline And Distillate Fuel Supplied Fell Off A Cliff: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar


Oil futures settle lower after ‘massive’ weekly rise in U.S. oil-product inventories

Gasoline and distillate fuel supplied, which is typically viewed as an implied measure of consumer demand, “fell off a cliff.”Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research

The roughly 20 million-barrel surge in refined product stockpiles was “largely the function of the massive drop off in deliveries around Christmas and New Year’s, which is notably typical in late December and early January,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on January 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fed Pivot Has Already Occurred

The Fed Pivot Has Already Occurred: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch


Here’s when falling bond yields might become a problem for stock-market bulls in 2024

Heading into 2024, the path of least resistance for Treasurys is for higher prices and lower yields (prices and yields move opposite each other), “although the decline in yields won’t be the boost for stocks in 2024 as it was in 2023, because if it keeps going and we see the 10-year yield break through support at 3.75% and keep dropping towards 3.00%, investors will interpret that as an economic warning sign now that the Fed pivot has already occurred,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Friday note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on December 29th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Tested Critical 2023 Support

Oil Futures Finished Higher: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch


Oil futures end modestly higher after posting 7 consecutive weekly declines

Gains for the session came from a “combination of near-term oversold conditions in the futures market” after West Texas Intermediate crude tested critical 2023 support in the upper $60s last week, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil futures finished higher on Monday after posting seven consecutive weekly declines.

Generally improving investor sentiment and risk-on money flows across other asset classes have also provided support to oil, he said. 

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on December 11th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

The Market Has So Aggressively Priced In A Dovish Fed

The Market Has So Aggressively Priced In A Dovish Fed: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN


November jobs report likely to show a solid 190,000 increase, with unemployment staying at 3.9%

As a result, market participants will be much more sensitive to a hotter-than-expected number than to a softer-than-expected figure, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Thursday note.

That means the threshold for “too hot” figures — including payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages — that cause a pullback in both stocks and bonds is lower than it’s been all year because the market has so aggressively priced in a dovish Fed, he wrote.

“So, there’s less of a margin for error if the jobs report is stronger than expectations.”

Also, click here to view the full article published by MSN on December 8th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.


Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.