Jobs Day
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated)
- Jobless Claims Show Potential Cracks Emerging in Labor Market
- Productivity and Costs Point to Sticky Wage Inflation
- Collapsing Trade Deficit Reveals Significant Tariff Impact on Trade
Futures are modestly higher this morning as TSLA shares (+4%) are recovering some of yesterday’s heavy losses amid prospects of a Trump-Musk call today while economic data was solid overnight ahead of today’s jobs report.
Economically, Eurozone GDP rose +1.5% y/y in Q1 vs. (E) +1.3% while Retail Sales rose +2.3% vs. (E) +1.0% y/y. Both data points support the case for ongoing resilience and bolster prospects for a soft economic landing in the EU.
Market will be primarily focused on the May BLS Employment Situation Report this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 129K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 3.7% Wage Growth).
From there focus will shift to the financial news headlines as traders look for additional insight on trade negotiations, particularly talks between the U.S. and both Europe and China, however there is a “second tiered” economic release in the afternoon with Consumer Credit (E: $10.2B) due out at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Finally, two late season earnings releases to watch today are ABM ($0.87) and MANU ($-0.33) but neither is likely to meaningfully move markets with the focus on the May jobs report.
