Technical Update (Ahead of Jobs Report)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Technical Update (Ahead of Jobs Report)
- Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview
- EIA and Oil Market Analysis (Will Oil Keep Falling?)
Futures are sharply lower on more disappointing AI related tech earnings and ahead of today’s jobs report.
Broadcom (AVGO) posted disappointing guidance and became the latest AI related tech company to produce underwhelming results and that’s weighing on futures.
Economic, data was mildly disappointing overnight as German IP missed estimates while EU GDP was revised lower.
Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds (160k), Unemployment Rate (4.2%), Wages (0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y). The mood in the markets has soured this week and investors are nervous about a disappointing jobs number. If that happens, look for an intense decline in stocks as hard landing chances rise. However, if the report is “Just Right” a solid relief rally (S&P 500 up 1% or more) should materialize, especially if the Fed speakers today point to a 50-bps cut.
In addition to the jobs report, as mentioned, there are two important Fed speakers today: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET) and Waller (11:00 a.m. ET). If they hint at a 50-bps cut, that will help support markets regardless of the jobs report.
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