Is Bad Economic Data Starting to Pressure Earnings?
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Is Bad Economic Data Starting to Pressure Earnings?
- EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update
Futures are modestly lower again following more disappointing earnings and another hot global inflation print.
DELL (down 15% pre-market) became the latest non-AI tech company to post disappointing results and that’s weighing on futures.
Economically, the EU flash HICP (their CPI) rose more than expected at 2.9% vs. (E) 2.7% y/y and that’s pushing back on expectations for multiple ECB rate cuts this year.
Today brings the biggest economic report of the week, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y). Markets will want to see a number at, or ideally below, expectations to further ease inflation anxiety and pressure Treasury yields. If investors get that number this morning, expect a solid bounce back rally in stocks and bonds. The other notable number today is the Chicago PMI (E: 40.8) but barring a major surprise that shouldn’t move markets.
Regarding the Trump guilty verdict, as we covered in Thursday’s Report, this could result in some temporary volatility in select sectors (oil and gas, industrials, financials) but we do not view this event as a material influence on markets.
Finally, there is one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 6:15 p.m. ET but he shouldn’t move markets.
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