Jobs Report Preview (Important for Fed Rate Cut Expectations)
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview (Important for Fed Rate Cut Expectations)
- EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update
Futures are modestly lower on continued elevated geo-political tensions and following mixed economic data.
Geopolitically, markets await the response from Israel to Tuesday’s attack and recent reports are stating it will be more aggressive than in April (increasing escalation risks).
Economically, EU and UK Service PMIs were mixed but both stayed above 50 (and economic positive).
Today focus will remain on economic data and the two key reports are Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.5). If the reports are close to in-line with expectations, look for a bounce in stocks as that will imply a still solid economy (soft landing) with looming Fed rate cuts (50 bps between now and year-end).
Regarding geopolitics, Israel’s response attack could come at any minute and the key here is whether it’s an aggressive attack on key Iranian military or oil infrastructure, or not. If so, that could lead to further escalation (negative for the market). If not, we likely have a repeat of April (where the situation cools down). Regardless, watch oil. If it spikes numerous percent (say 3% or more) that will reflect real, elevated geo-political tensions.
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