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July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.

The Rally Broadens Beyond Big Tech — Sevens Report Highlights the FOMO Trade

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Tom Essaye says improved breadth shows this market may still have plenty left in the tank

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled

The stock market rally is no longer just a tech story. Recent gains in financial and industrial stocks have pushed one key measure of market breadth to a new high—signaling rising participation across sectors.

That’s a good sign, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, who believes the bull run may have room to run—as long as economic stability holds.

“As long as things can stay stable, then this market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye attributes the surge in non-tech names to classic FOMO trading—as investors who missed out on AI and Big Tech now rotate into other sectors.

“Market breadth has improved as investors search for new opportunities in different industries… It’s the FOMO trade.”

Broader participation often strengthens the sustainability of a rally, making this shift in leadership a potentially bullish signal for the months ahead.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wall Street Journal published on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tech Leads the Rally, But Breadth Signals Are Flashing | Sevens Report Weighs In

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Tom Essaye says the rally looks healthy—but it’s not without warning signs

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

RECORD HIGHS GET SUPPORT FROM NYSE BREADTH, BUT 200-DAY INDICATORS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY

Wall Street’s rally to new highs continues to be led by tech stocks, but according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the strength may be broader than it looks—though not without its risks.

“The recent advance is broad-based… historically healthy and likely sustainable.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye pointed to new highs in the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) line, a key signal that the rally has expanded beyond just megacap names.

But there’s a catch: only about 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to Sevens Report data—well below May’s 55% high.

“The divergence… is a source of concern,” Essaye wrote. “Some areas show real strength, while others may just be staging bear-market rallies.”

For bulls, Essaye says confirmation would come from more S&P names clearing their 200-DMAs—surpassing the May threshold of 55% would help validate the rally’s staying power.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

Futures are modestly lower as markets still wait for a decision on direct U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict.

The White House said the President will make a decision on U.S. involvement within two weeks, leaving a potential diplomatic window open.

Economically, UK retail sales were weaker than expected, falling –2.7% vs. (E ) 1.3% while German PPI met expectations (1.2% y/y).

Today focus will be on economic data and the two notable reports are Philly Fed (E: -1.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  As has been the case, the stronger these readings, the better for stocks (it pushes back against the slowdown narrative).

Reset the trade relationship back to where it was

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Reset the trade relationship back to where it was: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Netflix and 6 More Winning Stocks to Sell Now

The White House now says that trade negotiations with China are over, even though the latest agreement from London “did little other than to reset the trade relationship back to where it was following the Geneva talks and, importantly, didn’t result in any further tariff reduction,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.

That means consumers will face at least 30% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional 25% on select goods and “according to the administration, they are going to stay there in perpetuity,” he notes. “Yes, ultimately Chinese tariffs were lower compared to the 145% absurdity in early April. But, they are much, much higher than at the start of the year.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines could meaningfully move markets

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Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines could meaningfully move markets: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in Swissinfo.ch

S&P 500 Gains as Lutnick Signals US-China Progress

“Any materially positive or negative trade-talk headlines out of London, where US and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation

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This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation: Sevens Report Founder, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Stock-market rally has pushed S&P 500 above ‘fundamental valuation levels’

“This market is solidly above any fundamental valuation and really only justifiable if we assume extremely positive resolution to the numerous risks facing this market and economy,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note Tuesday. “The S&P 500 at these levels reflects a very optimistic view of how this all works out.”

The stock market faces the risk of tariffs slowing the economy and hurting corporate earnings, as well as concerns about inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook, according to his note.

“The environment is much better than what was feared in April, but it’s still an environment with several distinct equity market headwinds, especially compared to the start of the year,” said Essaye. “While the rally is legitimate, the S&P 500 is solidly above fundamental valuation levels.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

June Market Multiple Table (All About TACO)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • June Market Multiple Table Update – All About “TACO”

Futures are slightly higher this morning as traders remain optimistic about progress in the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks ahead of the May CPI release tomorrow.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3 points to 98.8 in May, topping estimates of 95.9 which is supporting modest gains in U.S. equity futures.

There are no additional economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which limits potential catalysts to today’s Treasury auctions which include 6-Week and 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a (more important) 3-Yr Note auction at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Late season earnings continue to trickle in as well with: ASO ($0.84), SJM ($2.25), UNFI ($0.24), GME ($0.08), and PLAY ($0.96) all due to report Q1 results today.

Bottom line, today is lining up to be fairly quiet as far as scheduled catalysts are concerned. However, any materially positive or negative trade talk headlines out of London where U.S. and Chinese negotiations remain underway, could meaningfully move markets today before focus turns to tomorrow’s critical May CPI release.

Deutsche Bank Boosts U.S. Stocks as Trump’s ‘TACO’ Pattern Takes Hold

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Tom Essaye explains how tariff walk-backs continue to drive market optimism

Deutsche Bank Upgrades U.S. Stock Rating On Trump’s Tariff ‘Relents’—As ‘TACO’ Trump Gains Popularity

INVESTORS LEAN INTO THE ‘TRUMP ALWAYS CHICKENS OUT’ TRADE

With markets climbing and tariff anxiety easing, Deutsche Bank has upgraded U.S. equities—citing growing confidence that Trump’s tariff threats won’t stick.

This narrative has been labeled the “TACO” trade—short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The term, popularized by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, is gaining traction across Wall Street.

“The trade is based on the idea that Trump makes an outlandish and significant tariff proposal… but within days backtracks or waters it down.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, Trump has followed this pattern repeatedly, relenting enough to blunt the economic impact of each threat.

“Trump has always chickened out so far.”

With the TACO dynamic priced in, investors are increasingly treating tariff threats as noise, not policy—fueling bullish sentiment in the process.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article, published on June 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Halfway to a Soft Landing?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Halfway to a Soft Landing?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Trade Progress Actually Occur? (Where Are the Trade Deals?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus on Inflation (The Lower, the Better)

Futures are flat following a mostly quiet weekend as investors await the results of the latest U.S./China trade talks.

A meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in London should end shortly and markets are waiting for the results (the meeting could see more on Chinese efforts to curb fentanyl shipments to the U.S.).

Economically, Chinese exports missed expectations (4.8% y/y vs. (E) 6.0%) underscoring economic headwinds.

Today focus remain on trade and any positive (or negative) headlines from the U.S./China meeting in London will move markets.  Outside of trade, focus will be on the N.Y. Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (E: 3.6%).  These have cooled lately as the trade war has de-escalated and further cooling would be a positive for markets.