Yes, AI does have great potential and it does appear to be the ‘next big thing’. But I don’t see how that promise can offset the reality of higher interest rates and more pressure on the economy, at least not for a sustainable period…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
“Republican Representatives have said this morning that they have the votes to pass it. If that comes to fruition, that should remove a headwind from risk assets and open the door to a continued move higher in equity markets,” writes Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher after the House of Representatives passed the debt ceiling extension.
The House passed the debt ceiling extension 314-117, effectively ending this drama (passage in the Senate is all but guaranteed).
Economically, EU Core HICP (their core CPI) rose 5.3% vs. (E) 5.5%, hinting at the re-start of disinflation.
Today focus will be on economic data and there are numerous potentially important reports, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.0), where markets will want to see stability in the data (so not dramatically above or below the expectation). On employment, we get two important reports via the ADP Employment Report (E: 160K) and Jobless Claims (E: 235K), and moderation in both reports (so a drop in ADP and rise in claims) will be welcomed by markets. Finally, on inflation, Unit Labor Costs (E: 6.3%) will give us the latest insight into wages (the lower this number, the better). Finally, there is also one Fed speaker: Harker (1:00 p.m. ET).
The natural-gas market is reaching a historically pivotal phase of the year, with the price swings typically occurring in the summer and winter months, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Natural gas is the largest source of electricity in the U.S., at roughly 40%, so when temperatures heat up in the summertime, demand for power to run air conditioning units rises in lockstep. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P 500 futures are solidly higher while Nasdaq futures surge 2% thanks to blow out NVDA earnings.
NVDA beat on revenue and EPS and raised guidance on strong AI chip demand, and the stock surged more than 20% after hours.
Fitch put the U.S. on “credit watch negative” as the potential “X” date for the debt ceiling is less than a week away.
Today focus will be on any debt ceiling progress (although none is expected with the looming holiday weekend) and on economic data, and the most important report is Jobless Claims (E: 248K) and markets will want to see that number flat or just slightly higher (another big jump would increase hard landing worries).
Other data today includes Revised Q1 GDP (E: 1.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.1%), but neither number should move markets. On the Fed, we have two speakers today, Barkin (9:50 a.m. ET) and Collins (10:30 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are rebounding modestly from yesterday’s declines this morning as traders await more clarity on the debt ceiling negotiations (1-Month yield is down 2 bp to 5.56%) and digest in-line European inflation data.
Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 7.0% y/y with the Narrow Core reading falling 0.1% to 5.6%, also as expected but still well above target.
There is just one economic report this morning: Housing Starts & Permits (E: 1.405M, 1.430M) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Retailer earnings continue this morning with TGT ($1.74) reporting ahead of the bell and investors will be looking for more signs of “soft landing” spending trends as we saw with HD yesterday.
As far as other potential catalysts go, there is a 20-Yr. Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today and any big move in yields could impact stocks (too weak would indicate inflation worries, too strong would underscore growing debt ceiling fears).
“To say a lot has transpired in the markets over the past three weeks would be an understatement,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Thursday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
“Don’t confuse the market’s ability to withstand last year’s headwind with an invincibility towards what could be this year’s headwind” of slumping economic growth, Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote in a Monday note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stocks futures are trading with modest gains this morning while Treasury yields are tracking European bond yields higher following stubbornly high inflation data overnight.
Economically, both Spanish and French CPI headlines were hotter than expected, above 6%, which saw European rates markets price in a 4% terminal ECB rate for the first time. Government bond yields across the Eurozone notably rose to multi-year highs.
Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch including: International Trade (E: -$91.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (-0.5%), FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.3%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 108.5).
Traders will be looking for less signs of stagflation in the data as elevated inflation figures and weakening growth metrics were a headwind for equities last week.
Finally, the Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (who just succeeded Evans) has his first speaking engagement since taking over the role at 2:30 p.m. ET, and as a voting member of the FOMC, his comments will be closely watched for any new clues about Fed policy plans in the months ahead. A notably hawkish tone, could easily cause another bout of volatility in risk assets this afternoon.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are lower despite a stable Treasury market and better-than-feared inflation data overseas as investors continued to assess post-CPI Fed policy expectations.
U.K. CPI fell to 10.1% vs. (E) 10.3% in January down from 10.5% in December which sent the pound lower. Despite the bigger than expected drop, however, inflation remains far too high in the U.K. and more aggressive policy will be warranted to get price pressures back down towards the BOE’s target over time.
Today, focus will be on economic data as there are several important reports due to be released including: Retail Sales (E: 1.7%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -18.5), Industrial Production (E: 0.5%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 37).
As has been the case lately, investors will be looking for signs of moderation in growth metrics (but not an all out collapse) and faster declining price readings to keep the hopes of a soft/no landing alive. Otherwise, it will be difficult for stocks to resume their 2023 advance.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if demand is weak and yields begin to add to yesterday’s upward moves, stocks could come for sale.