Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on February 13, 2019.

“Markets always assumed the March 1 trade deadline was flexible, but this just confirmed it. Bottom line, the fundamentals are roughly balanced right now as there is…” Click here to read the full article.

Time to Chase Stocks? Not So Fast

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Time to Chase Stocks? Not So Fast.

Money flows were risk-on overnight thanks to continued trade-war optimism but stock futures are off the highs following more soft economic data overseas.

Trump said he would push back the March 1st tariff deadline, which was previously considered a “hard date,” if there is “good progress” towards a trade deal at that time while President Xi is now expected to attend talks on Friday. Both are incremental positives for the prospects of a successful deal.

Economic data out overnight was less optimistic however. EU Industrial Production fell –4.2% vs. (E) -3.2% Y/Y in December which is just the latest release fueling concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Today, the January CPI Report (E: 0.1%) will be watched closely ahead of the open while there are several Fed speakers before lunch: Bostic (7:15 a.m. ET), Mester (8:50 a.m. ET), Harker (12:00 p.m. ET).

The major focus of the market right now however remains the trade negotiations in Beijing and stocks will be most sensitive to any material headlines regarding the ongoing talks.

Repeat of 2015/2016?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is this a Repeat of 2015/2016?

Futures are slightly lower as Trump’s SOTU was a non-event for markets while growth concerns continue in the wake of soft data o/n and earnings were mixed since yesterday’s close.

German Manufacturers’ Orders fell –7.0% y/y in December from –3.4% in November, the lowest reading since 2012, which is weighing modestly on EU shares in morning trade.

Looking ahead to today’s Wall Street session we are likely to see more digestion as there are limited catalysts.

There are two, second-tiered economic reports due out: International Trade (-$53.9B) and Productivity and Costs (E: 1.6%, 1.7%) while on the Fed front, Powell is scheduled to speak after the close (7:00 p.m. ET) but his remarks will be watched closely and could move markets after hours tonight.

Lastly, earnings season is winding down but there are still a few notables to watch today: GM ($1.21) and FDC ($0.37) before the open and CMG ($1.19) after the close.

Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC

Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on February 4, 2019.

“Part of the reason that the market reacted so positively to the earnings is because expectations had fallen into this earnings season. From a sentiment perspective, it was definitely better than…” Read the full article here.

What’s Next for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why We Still Think Stocks Are in a Trading Range (And We’re Near the Top)
  • Two Indicators That Would Make Us More Bullish on Stocks (In the Currency & Bond Section)
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet

Futures are flat following a very quiet weekend of no incremental news (the weekend news flow was similar to the scoring in the first half of the super bowl).

The only notable economic report was Chinese Service PMI which met expectations at 53.6 vs. (E) 53.9.  But, the composite PMI still dropped to 50.9 vs. the previous 52.2 so there are still legitimate reasons to worry about Chinese, and global, economic growth.

Today there are no notable economic reports and the only notable earnings report comes after the close (GOOGL ($11.08)) so I’d expect a generally quiet trading day as investors digest the recent rally/news.

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on January 25, 2019

Tyler Richey, co-editor of the Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on January 25, 2019. His take on this market, natural gas, volatility and more. Read the full article here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barrons on January 23, 2019

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barrons on January 23, 2019. His take on this unpredictable market. Click here to read the full article.

Positive News on the U.S. Consumer (Good for Stocks)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Positive Commentary on the U.S. Consumer (From Someone Who Should Know)
  • EIA and Weekly Oil Analysis

Futures are moderately higher thanks to a dovish Fed article in the WSJ and more solid earnings (SBUX).

The WSJ reported that Fed officials are considering ending their balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, and that’s helped lift futures.

Economic data underwhelmed again as the German IFO Business Expectations Survey declined to 94.2 vs. (E) 97.0.

Today there are no economic reports (Durable Goods & New Home Sales won’t be produced because of the shutdown) and the earnings calendar is relatively quiet (ABBV ($1.92) and CL ($0.73) are two names we’re watching), so focus will likely remain on political headlines as there finally appears to be hints of progress at resolving this government shutdown (although the solution may only last three weeks).  If we get any positive news on the shutdown, that’ll likely add to the early rally.

A Sector With Relative Clarity (and Opportunity)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Sector With Relative Clarity (and Opportunity)

Futures are slightly higher as momentum from yesterday’s positive earnings offset more disappointing economic data.

January flash PMIs in Japan and the EU were disappointing.  The Japanese manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 vs. (E) 52.4 while the EU Composite PMI dropped to 50.7 vs. (E) 51.4.  But, markets haven’t traded off Japanese data in over a year, and the “Yellow Vest” disruptions are weighing on French PMIs, which dragged the composite EU PMI lower, so these disappointing numbers aren’t weighing on markets as much as they normally would.

Today the big number is the U.S. Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.2), as markets are looking for more signs of economic stabilization following the loss of momentum in December.  Anything that implies stabilization will be stock positive.

We also have an ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change to Rates) and the ECB Press Conference (8:30 a.m. ET) and the key will be whether ECB President Draghi is very dovish given more disappointing economic data (he’s not expected to be materially dovish).

Finally, earnings continue and generally the season, so far, has been better than expected.  Some results we’re watching today include: INTC ($1.22), NSC ($2.30), SBUX ($0.65), WDC ($1.50).

Time to Get More Defensive?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Time to Get More Defensive?

Futures are moderately higher thanks to rising U.S./China trade optimism.

Yesterday’s WSJ article that stated U.S. officials are considering reducing China tariffs spurred a global rally, despite being disputed by administration officials.

Economic data was mildly disappointing as Japanese CPI (0.7% vs. (E) 0.8%) and UK Retail Sales (-0.9% vs. (E) -0.8%) both slightly missed estimates, although neither report is moving markets.

Today there are several earnings reports but none of the companies reporting should move the market unless the results are truly horrid.

Economically, Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) is the key report as we want to see if “hard” manufacturing activity dropped as much as the manufacturing surveys in December.  We also get an update on Consumer Sentiment (E: 97.0) and one Fed speaker, Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), who could help markets rally if he talks more about flexibility on balance sheet reduction.