Two “Smart Market” Recession Signals to Watch For
Two “Smart Market” Recession Signals to Watch For: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Follow-Up Thoughts on the Yield Curve Reversion Process – Two Signals to Watch For
- PPI Takeaways – Will Falling Inflation Flip from a Tailwind to a Headwind?
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Echoes HD Sales Concerns
U.S. stock futures are flat as traders digest yesterday’s sizeable rally ahead of today’s critical CPI release.
Overseas, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut rates overnight citing recession concerns in H2’24 while the EU GDP Flash met estimates at 0.6% y/y helping push back on imminent recession fears.
Today, market focus will be on the key U.S. inflation data due ahead of the bell: CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y). A “cool” release will be welcomed and likely support an extension of the week-to-date gains while a “hot” print would be negative for risk assets.
There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET which normally wouldn’t pique investors interest, but this one lines up with the September Fed meeting and could shed light on the market’s policy rate expectations.
Finally, earnings season continues to wind down with a few noteworthy companies reporting today including: CAH (E: $1.72), UBS (E: $0.12), TCEHY (E: $0.61), CSCO (E: $0.85).
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