“If the Fed clearly signals that this cut is the last cut for sometime, then I’d expect it a pretty nasty reaction from stocks as markets want more rate cuts…” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, in a Tuesday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- How the Bond Market Will Tell Us Whether the Fed Rate Cut is Preventative or “Too Late”
- Key Levels to Watch in Gold Today
Futures are tentatively higher ahead of the Fed this morning as AAPL earnings beat (shares up 4%+), economic data was mixed, and there were no real trade war updates o/n.
Economically, China’s CFLP Manufacturing PMI was slightly better than feared at 49.7 but importantly still below 50 pointing to contraction while EU data remained “Goldilocks” with in-line growth metrics but soft inflation readings.
Today, investors will clearly be keenly focused on the Fed but there are some other catalysts to watch. On the earnings front, GE ($0.12) reports before the bell while QCOM ($0.75) results will be released after the close.
Economically, the first look at July jobs data will hit this morning with the ADP Employment Report (E: 155K) and then Q2 Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%) will be released shortly after.
Turning to the Fed, the FOMC Announcement will print at 2:00 p.m. ET, (E: -25 bp cut to 2.00-2.25%) and Powell’s Press Conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET. The market has high expectations for the Fed today and even a mildly hawkish disappointment could trigger significant volatility as valuations remain as stretched as they have been in years.
“Today will likely be dominated by pre-Fed positioning and trading should be quiet, although there’s always the chance we get a U.S.—China trade…” writes Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full Barron’s article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Perspective on Yesterday’s Bullish Catalysts (Draghi’s QE reference, Trump’s tweet)
- Is ECB QE Bullish for European Stocks?
Futures are little changed following a quiet night as markets digest yesterday’s events (Draghi dovish, Trump’s positive U.S./China tweet) ahead of the Fed later today.
In contrast to the suddenly positive mood on the Street, economic data again was disappointing. German PPI missed expectations (1.9% yoy vs. (E) 2.2% yoy) as did British Industrial Trends (-15 vs. (E) -12), but neither number is moving markets.
Today is clearly all about the FOMC Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. There’s virtually zero chance of a rate cut at this meeting, so the keys to watch will be 1) Whether the word “patient” is removed from the end of the second paragraph (signaling a looming rate cut) and do 2) The dots show no rate hikes in 2020 and 3) A cut in 2019.
If the answer to each of these is “yes” the meeting will be dovish and likely extend the rally. If the answer is “no” to all three it’ll be hawkish and stocks will get hit, and if we get a mixed bag, the reaction from markets shouldn’t be too drastic.
Sevens Report Quarterly Letter
Next week is the final week of the quarter, and we’ve already begun working on the Q2’19 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter.
The Q2 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to subscribers on July 1st.
Volatility returned and investors are now facing multiple risks including: 1) Trade uncertainty, 2) Worries about economic growth, 3) Geopolitical concerns and 4) Shifting Fed policy.
Investors I speak with want to hear from their advisor in this environment. That’s why we’re producing the letter on the 1st business day of the quarter, because we want you to be able to impress clients by sending them your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little-to-no work from you).
What’s in Today’s Report:
- FOMC Preview – Will the Fed Confirm the Rally?
Futures are modestly higher as stocks rally off dovish comments by ECB President Draghi and again ignore more ugly economic data.
In a speech Draghi said the APP (the EU QE program) had a lot more “room” implying it could be re-started, and that helped global equities rally modestly.
Economic data, meanwhile, was again ugly. German ZEW Business Expectations collapsed to –21.1 vs. (E) -9.3 while Euro Zone exports missed estimates at –2.5% vs. (E) -1.2%.
Today will likely be dominated by pre-Fed positioning and trading should be quiet, although there’s always the chance we get a U.S. – China trade update as the G-20 draws closer. Economically there is just one report, Housing Starts (E: 1.240M), and it shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report: Seven “Ifs” Updated (Post FOMC and PMIs)
Stock futures are moderately higher with bond yields while the dollar is steady this morning as the volatility from late last week continues to be digested by global investors.
U.K. Parliament took control of the Brexit process from Prime Minister May late yesterday but the news is not having a material impact on markets so far today and there were no market moving economic releases overnight.
In the U.S. today, several reports on the housing market are due out this morning: Housing Starts (E: 1.201M), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) while Consumer Confidence (E: 132.5) will hit in the first hour of trading.
Additionally, there are two Fed speakers ahead of the bell: Harker (8:00 a.m. ET) and then Rosengren (8:30 a.m. ET).
While a lot of news will hit this morning between the economic data and Fed chatter, the primary focus of the stock market will be bond yields and the curve. If yields continued to fall and the curve flattens further, stocks will have a very hard time staying in positive territory as growth concerns will continue to weigh on sentiment.
What Is The Value Of The FOMC Minutes? Tom Essaye Quoted in Benzinga to share his view on the recent Fed meeting and it’s effect on markets. “This Fed meeting is critically important for markets because…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 20, 2019. “The single most prominent bullish influence on stocks right now is the dovish Fed, and the run to fresh five-month…” Click here to read full article.
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Axios on January 30, 2019. Read the full article here.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Pre-Fed Technical Update: Levels to Watch
- Why Did Tech Lag so Badly Yesterday?
Futures are drifting modestly higher this morning as investors focus on the Fed, U.S.-China trade talks, and earnings.
News flows were slow overnight although the well-received AAPL earnings from late yesterday are helping US futures rally.
Today, primary focus will be on the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
There are two economic reports due out this morning: ADP Employment Report (E: 174K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.3%). The former will be closely watched but it is unlikely we see any sort of material move in markets ahead of the Fed.
Earnings season is reaching its peak so there are a slew of reports to watch today with: BABA ($1.65), BA ($4.52), T ($0.85) before the open and FB ($2.17), MSFT ($1.09), TSLA ($2.15), V ($1.25), and QCOM ($1.09) all due to report after the close.
Again, earnings and data will be followed today and ultimately will be digested by the market accordingly, but the Fed this afternoon will be the major focus and whether or not the outcome of the meeting is as dovish as recent Fed commentary has been will decide whether the S&P breaks higher towards 2700 or retests initial, key support at 2600.
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