Even a small bout of stagflation would result in a 10%-20% decline in stocks
Even a small bout of stagflation would result in a 10%-20% decline in stocks: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch
The economy could be heading toward 1970s-style stagflation. What it means for the stock market.
“Stagflation doesn’t have to be as bad as it was in the 1970s, but for a stock market that’s trading above 21 times earnings, the truth is that even a small bout of stagflation would result in a 10%-20% decline in stocks,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note.
“Of course, comparing this period to the 1970s, where GDP growth was flat or negative and CPI was running more than 10%, [Powell’s] absolutely right [that] there is no stagflation,” said Essaye. But he added that it’s somewhat “dismissive” to say that just because things aren’t as bad as they were in the 1970s, any talk of stagflation is unwarranted.
“In an absolute sense,” economic growth is not at levels that would imply stagflation — but data releases are becoming “more conclusive that economic momentum is slowing,” Essaye said. “While stagnation isn’t here yet, the data is showing a greater chance of it occurring than any time in the last year and a half.”
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