Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- Can the Trump Trade Outperform in 2025?
Futures are sharply lower following another failed attempt at a short-term government funding agreement.
A Republican plan for a new short-term government funding agreement was soundly defeated in a House vote and a government shutdown starting today is looking likely.
Specifically, futures aren’t down because of the shutdown itself, but instead because this is the type of political chaos markets fear in a second Trump term (that hasn’t even officially started yet).
Today politics will dominate the headlines and any positive news towards a funding agreement will fuel a bounce, while no progress will continue to weigh on stocks.
Beyond Washington, however, there is an important economic report today, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y). This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and given the Fed’s hawkish decision on Wednesday, this number needs to come in at or under expectations, otherwise it’ll just add to the selling pressure.
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