What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025
What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What the January Barometer Says for Markets in 2025
Futures are slightly lower as markets digest lingering tariff uncertainty and despite better than expected economic data.
The only notable economic report overnight was Euro Zone Flash GDP and it beat estimates, rising 0.1% vs. (E) 0.0%.
On tariffs, the lack of detail and action on reciprocal tariffs was a relief but a “tariff cliff” has formed on or around April 1st and that uncertainty will stay a market headwind.
Tariff headlines should theoretically slow down for the next few weeks given the various trade studies that need to occur before tariff announcements in March/April, so focus will turn back towards data and there are two notable reports today: Retail Sales (E: -0.1%) and Industrial Production (E: 0.3%). As has been the case, Goldilocks data that’s at or slightly under expectations remains the best case for stocks as it implies solid growth but won’t make the Fed less dovish.
There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan at 3:00 p.m. ET, but she shouldn’t move markets.
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