Sevens Report Updates S&P 500 Outlook: Here’s What Could Happen Next

S&P 500 STARTS H2 2025 PRICED TO PERFECTION, SAYS SEVENS REPORT

With markets hovering near all-time highs, Sevens Report Research has released its updated valuation targets for the S&P 500—and the range of potential outcomes for the rest of 2025 is wide.

“Markets are largely priced to perfection at the start of H2’25.”
— Sevens Report

Under the baseline scenario, based on projected 2026 earnings of $295/share, Sevens pegs fair value between 6,195 and 6,343, with 6,269 acting as a technical midpoint.

• 6,195 = near-term support

• 6,269 = technical pivot

• 6,343 = upside resistance

A break above this range could lead to a “better-if” rally scenario:

• Target: 6,600

• Assumes $300/share in earnings and a 22× multiple

• Represents only ~6% upside from recent levels

• A move above 6,600 could open the door to 6,860, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension

But downside risks remain in a “worse-if” case:

• Target range: 4,675–4,950

• Assumes $275/share EPS and a 17–18× multiple

• Midpoint: 4,813, a “technically critical” level

• Weekly close below 4,813 could trigger a deep bear market toward 3,675

“A collapse of that magnitude may sound far-fetched, but history shows it wouldn’t be unprecedented.”

With valuations stretched and catalysts limited, Sevens cautions that investor focus should now shift to earnings quality, macro stability, and technical levels that could define the second half of the year.