The biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway
The biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway: Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch
The stakes for the October jobs report are high — here’s what to expect: Sevens Report
The stakes for the latest reading from the main U.S. employment barometer are high. Although not in the way many investors might think, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.
Fallout from hurricanes that hit Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, coupled with the ongoing Boeing strike, are expected to push up the unemployment rate. Because of this, investors are already expecting a weak report, Essaye said in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.
It also means that the biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway. Signs of a still-resilient labor market could pressure the Federal Reserve to leave its policy interest-rate target on hold next week, Essaye added.
A too-hot number could push stocks lower and Treasury yields higher as traders account for a greater likelihood of a “no landing” scenario.
“A second straight monthly jobs report above 200k and the unemployment rate dropping back below 4% will bolster the no landing expectation and push back hard on another rate cut quickly following the cut in September,” Essaye said.
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