How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets
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What’s in Today’s Report:
- How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets
Futures are modestly higher despite more weak earnings (NKE), as last night’s debate is seen as boosting Trump’s chances to win the election.
President Biden’s performance at last night’s debate raised further concerns about his mental and physical stamina and hurt his re-election chances. The net result is markets are rallying on Trump’s improved chances to win, as markets generally prefer Republican candidates due to pro-business policies (although actual results are mixed).
Today focus shifts back to data and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y). Markets will want to see it confirm the good CPI numbers from earlier in the month (meaning at or below estimates) and if that occurs, it should extend this early rally.
There are also two Fed speakers today, Bowman (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (12:40 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.
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