Jobs Report Preview: “Too Hot” Definitely Worse Than “Too Cold”
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview: “Too Hot” Definitely Worse Than “Too Cold”
Futures are mixed as higher oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities pressure stocks.
Geopolitically, Iran launched missile and drone strikes against U.S. bases in Kuwait as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated.
Economically, EU PPI rose 1.6% vs. (E) 1.2% m/m, adding to inflation concerns.
Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and the ISM Services Index (E: 54.1). An in-line claims print and stable services activity should help ease concerns about the economy while keeping pressure off Treasury yields.
Finally, Waller (8:30 a.m. ET) and Hammack (3:00 p.m. ET) are scheduled to speak today while earnings include CIEN ($1.46), ZS ($0.06), IOT ($0.02), and LULU ($1.79).
Alpha Report: Is It Time to Rethink Long-Term Bonds?
Long-term bonds have become one of the most disliked areas of the market—and it’s not hard to understand why. Persistent inflation, massive Treasury issuance, large fiscal deficits and higher oil prices have all reinforced the case for staying short duration.
But when virtually everyone agrees on an investment thesis, it’s worth asking what could make that consensus wrong.
That’s exactly what we examined in Tuesday’s Sevens Report Alpha.
Long-term yields remain near two-decade highs, sentiment is deeply negative, and several macro developments could begin easing the pressures that have punished the long end of the Treasury market. Importantly, investors don’t need every concern to disappear for the risk/reward to improve.
Could long-term bonds be emerging as one of today’s better contrarian opportunities? (Click here to find out.)
